The Toronto Blue Jays acquired the closer they wanted, as they traded prospect Nestor Molina to the Chicago White Sox for Sergio Santos. John Sickels rated Molina as the second best prospect in the Blue Jays organization, but other scouts such as Keith Law don’t value him quite as high. The White Sox were able to get solid return value with the addition of Molina, and this deal hinges on his ability to become a successful starter in the Majors. Santos could make anywhere from three-years and $8.25 million to six-years and $30 million, and it seems best to use the latter as a reference point in analyzing this deal. The last three years are all team options with a $750 thousand buy-out, and Santos should easily outperform the first three years of his contract.
The Blue Jays obviously needed a closer, and Santos is a pretty good one (2.87 FIP). He racks up strikeouts, as he sent 13.07 batters down on strikes for every nine innings that he pitched; but he also allowed 4.12 walks per nine during that same time frame in the 2011 season. In just his second season in the Bigs, Santos was worth a solid 1.6 WAR. After having an unlucky BABIP of .345 in 2010, that number dropped to a lucky .269 last season. He also allowed more home runs last season, and this is most likely a product of poor luck (2.69 xFIP). Despite the decrease in BABIP, Santos still had a lower FIP in 2011 thanks to that terrific strikeout rate.
If the value of a win increases by $5 million, below are the WAR totals that Santos would have to achieve through each year of his expected contract.
2012 $1 million 0.2 WAR
2013 $2.75 million 0.6 WAR
2014 $3.75 million 0.7 WAR
2015 $6 million 1.1 WAR
2016 $8 million 1.4 WAR
2017 $8.75 million 1.5 WAR
It seems pretty clear that Santos will be able to surpass the value of his contract for the first three seasons. He will be 31 in 2015, but I still see him being worth at least 1.1 WAR that season. However, I do see a problem with the last two seasons, and the Jays would be wise to decline his option for these years.
Nestor Molina seems like a No. 3 or No. 4 starter right now, and he could surpass Santos’s value by pitching near Capuano-level. However, this deal will definitely be a win for the Blue Jays if Molina fails to make it to the White Sox rotation by 2013. He still needs some seasoning right now, so the Sox will have to wait and see for the time being.
Sergio Santos should be a solid reliever for the next few seasons, and the Jays really needed a closer who could step in and get the job done. Santos’s career K% of 29.9 is quite the statement, and I think the Jays “won” this deal at first glance. The White Sox look like they are rebuilding, and Kenny Williams’s tweet certainly reflects this. It isn’t a full-scale rebuild, but the White Sox did just trade one of their only valuable pieces for a starter who has only very recently gained clout. It really doesn’t look like a net loss for the White Sox, because Santos is a reliever when all is said and done. However, he is a reliever who is playing on a relatively cheap deal and fills a definite position of need for the Jays. Chalk this one up in the win column for AA, but Nestor Molina could make Williams look good at some point down the road.