Angels sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson
So, who saw this coming? Actually, I predicted that Albert Pujols would end up an Angel a couple of months ago, but that was only if he somehow didn’t re-sign with the Cardinals. Well, Pujols is now an Angel, and this turn of events leaves the Cardinals faithful awestruck. How could a franchise figure leave the team after winning a World Series title? Art Moreno made a huge push, and he signed the new face of Los Angeles in the process.
In truth, this honestly doesn’t look like a good deal. It seems weird to say this about any deal involving a future Hall of Famer, but Pujols is about to be 32 and received 10 years and $254 million. $25.4 million is quite a bit of money, and the Cardinals are expecting him to be worth about 44 WAR over the life of this deal. Pujols will have to age well in order to be worth 4.4 WAR per season over the span of his new contract, and great players are known to have a plateau of greatness and a generally slow decline.
I like to use the Simple WAR Calculator and Bill James projections to get a ballpark estimate of a player’s WAR for the 2012 season. However, I will also use the 36 fans who projected this and average their WARs with a weight of 60% going towards those 36 fans. James has Pujols at about 6.8 WAR, while the fans value him at about 6.3 WAR. Pujols should be worth about 6.5 WAR next season, but we should decrease his value by 5% until he is 34, 10% until he is 37, and then 15% until the age of 40, and 20% thereafter.. Pujols has undergone a more rapid decline than most other superstars, so this decline is certainly in order and might not even be steep enough.
2012 6.5 WAR
2013 6.2 WAR
2014 5.9 WAR
2015 5.3 WAR
2016 4.8 WAR
2017 4.3 WAR
2018 3.7 WAR
2019 3.1 WAR
2020 2.5 WAR
2021 2 WAR
If you add those totals up, Pujols will be worth 44.3 WAR, and that’s just a little bit above what this deal is paying him. Granted, he does have an injury risk and his exponential decay is quite steep; which means that he should have a steep decline. These are favorable projections, because not many players are league-average at the age of 41. However, this is feasible seeing that Pujols could DH later on in his career and is a Hall of Fame talent. With the overall revenue that Pujols will generate in L.A., this deal looks about average overall to be honest.
Whatever money was overpaid to Albert Pujols due to the uncertainty of his career path, that money was made up for in this coup. The Angels signed the best pitcher in free agency, C.J. Wilson, to a five-year deal worth $75 million. That’s right, the younger and better Wilson received only $1 million more than Mark Buehrle; California will do that for you.
The Angels didn’t have much of a need at first with Mark Trumbo, and I can’t really see the low-OBP guy sliding over to third successfully. His defense is best suited for first. With Wilson, the Angels just added a third ace to a stacked starting rotation that is now the 2nd best in baseball behind the Phillies. The Angels now have Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, and Ervin Santana. And oh by the way, C.J. Wilson’s new ballpark will pad his stats and is a far easier place to pitch than Arlington.
Wilson was worth 5.9 WAR in 2011 and 4.6 WAR in 2010, so it’s safe to say that he will be able to outperform a contract that asks him to be worth 14.7 WAR over these five seasons. He should be able to easily surpass this mark of just under 3 WAR per season, as he is one of the best pitchers in baseball and has to be regarded as an ace. The postseason concerns are a wash, and he does not fatigue throughout the season when looking at monthly splits.
The Angels just turned themselves into contenders and added about 11 wins to their team for the 2012 season with these two signings. While the Pujols move might hurt them in the long run due to the shear number of years and money tied to him, the deal given to C.J. Wilson really looks like a steal right now.