Chicago Cubs acquire Ian Stewart

The Chicago Cubs traded outfielder Tyler Colvin and infielder DJ LeMahieu to the Colorado Rockies for third baseman Ian Stewart and pitcher Casey Weathers. Aramis Ramirez is currently a free agent, and there was really no chance of the Cubs bringing him back, so they decided to acquire Stewart. He is the most accomplished of the four players in this deal, but he might not be the best of them. His statistics will regress in Wrigley, but he should still be a decent option for the Cubs at third, until prospect Josh Vitters is deemed ready to play at the Major League level.

Casey Weathers is a pitcher who may not recover from Tommy John surgery, and he is another one of those hard-throwing pitchers that Theo Epstein likes to hoard to see which guys pan out. It doesn’t look like Weathers means much in this deal, and DJ LeMahieu is the more intriguing prospect in this deal. DJLM is a very good defensive player who can get on base, but he’s really just a guy who hits a bunch of singles and does nothing else. He makes a lot of contact, but he has really no power, so some people are a little too optimistic about him. Still, I would take DJLM over Weathers any day; the Rockies won part one of this deal.

Part two is far more interesting, because it involves two players who have had more than 100 plate appearances in the Majors. Ian Stewart has usually been somewhere between a league-average player and a replacement player, so he really seems backup quality. However, Stewart was “worth” -0.6 WAR, but he had a .224 BABIP (.298 career) and played in just 48 games. He played some solid defense, and he has always been a much better third baseman than second baseman. Stewart is a pretty good defensive player overall, but it should be noted that he is a slightly below-average offensive player. He has a career strikeout rate of 27.9%, and that number should go up in Chicago. At higher altitudes, breaking balls don’t break quite as much, and thus favor hitters; especially those like Stewart who strike out quite a bit. And, of course, Coors is a good power boost for any hitter.

Stewart should be worth 1.1 WAR in 2012, which was his WAR in 2008 (1.2 WAR in 2009). This is assuming he plays 90 games, because he would be worth 1.5 WAR if he played in 120 games. That would tie his career high set in the 2010 season, but both of these projected WAR totals tell the same story; Ian Stewart is a slightly below-average starter who is mainly a stopgap for Vitters at this point.

While Ian Stewart has the better track record, Tyler Colvin will most likely end up being the better player. The solid defensive right fielder- thanks to a strong left arm- has the most upside of all the four guys in this deal. He was worth -1 WAR last season, but he only received 222 plate appearances and had an awful .175 BABIP.  Part of this is due to all the infield flies Colvin hit, his depressed line drive rate (LD% fluctuates from year to year), and he also hit an abundant amount of fly balls. His only full season was in 2010, and he hit 20 homers with a wRC+ of 113 in a league-average season overall (2 WAR).

The problem is that Tyler Colvin rarely walks and strikes out far too often, but there is good news for Rockies fans regarding the latter. As stated before when taking a look at Ian Stewart, high altitudes have a way of depressing strikeout numbers. Colvin should be an above-average offensive player, albeit not a spectacular one. Epstein and the Cubs never seemed particularly enthralled with Colvin, as they have traded him after signing veteran David DeJesus. Using the Simple WAR Calculator, Bill James expects Colvin to play in 84 games and be worth around the replacement level. Although I think Colvin will be worth between 1 and 1.5 WAR, I will admit that he has a lot of developing to do. I like his upside, but I think we can call part two of this deal a draw for now.

The Rockies gained a little more overall value out of this deal, so I think they “won” this trade with the Cubs. Both players should benefit from a change of scenery, and the Cubs filled a position of need as did the Rockies. He should get some playing time in left field and presumably start in Colorado, and the Rockies were able to get a decent looking utility infielder. The Cubs didn’t exactly see much in Colvin’s future, and they decided it was better to clear space for Brett Jackson, and they already have the newly-signed DeJesus. Theo likes to try and see which project pitchers can work out, and they’ll hope that Casey Weathers turns out to be something. Both teams did well for themselves in this deal, but I like the overall value and upside that the Rockies gained out of this trade.