Boston Red Sox trade Jed Lowrie to Houston Astros
The Boston Red Sox needed to acquire a solid relief pitcher, and they did so by obtaining Mark Melancon from the Houston Astros for shortstop Jed Lowrie and right-hander Kyle Weiland. The Astros are obviously a rebuilding team, and acquiring Lowrie filled in a major hole at shortstop. The 25-year-old Weiland will be moved to the rotation, and that seems like the most prudent move at this time given his track record and skill set. Houston has an awful rotation, and a pitcher like Weiland has much more value to the team as a starter than as a reliever.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox might convert one of their relievers to a starter; Daniel Bard. Even if Bard maintains the closing gig in 2012 and doesn’t become a starting pitcher, there was still a need for a capable set-up man with the loss of Jonathan Papelbon this offseason. Melancon pitched 74.1 innings in his first significant season in the Majors, and he was worth 0.8 WAR with a solid 3.25 FIP. A 0.5 WAR reliever is a solid addition for any bullpen, and this is especially true for a contender previously lacking depth in the ‘pen. They had an epic collapse last season, and there is some correlation between bullpens and collapses (the Mets and Tigers are recent examples of this).
In terms of overall value acquired, the Houston Astros got the better end of this trade. Kyle Weiland will probably end up being as valuable as Mark Melancon in the long run, because he has a future in the rotation and was quite good in the minors. We really have to ignore the awful 24.2 innings he pitched last season for the Sox in his first Major League action, because this is a guy who could end up being a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Any rebuilding team would much rather work on their rotation before their bullpen. Building a solid bullpen is a job for a contender, and this is a job that the Red Sox are currently working on. The move to acquire Melancon was a step in the right direction.
Using the Simple WAR Calculator developed by Lewie Pollis, Bill James- or Baseball Info Solutions- projects Jed Lowrie to be worth 1.7 WAR over a projected 370 plate appearances in 2012. Lowrie’s career high for PAs is 341, and this was set last season in a generally underwhelming season for the 27-year-old SS (0.3 WAR). His best season came in his insane 2010 (1.9 WAR in just under 200 plate appearances).
Lowrie would be an above-average shortstop if he was ever healthy (2.3 WAR if he had 500 PAs), but he is merely a mediocre one due to the injury risk. The Sox already have a solid starting shortstop in Marco Scutaro (2.9 WAR, 110 wRC+, and better defense) and had, by definition, a surplus at the position. You really can’t say the Red Sox gave up too much in this deal, because they didn’t need Weiland or Lowrie. However, the Astros did need to acquire players who would fill some of the many holes on their roster and further the rebuilding process.
If Jed Lowrie is ever fully healthy over the span of a few seasons- or can at least amass 500 plate appearances- he would most likely end up being a quality 3 WAR shortstop who will be a key player on a team that will likely remain one of the worst in baseball.
The combined value of a starting-caliber shortstop and a back-of-the-rotation starter surpasses the value of a good set-up man who will most likely be a solid closer one day. Therefore, the Astros definitely helped themselves out with this move. However, Boston needed bullpen help badly, and the Sox were able to get help and gave up two spare parts (for them). Both teams improved as a result of this trade, and, much like the Trevor Cahill trade involving the Athletics and Diamondbacks, this trade was one where a contender filled a position of need to improve their chance of success in the playoffs and a rebuilding team added some pieces to the puzzle. This was a good day at the office for both GMs, and most deals aren’t about winners and losers (this isn’t the NBA). Trades in baseball usually- the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philly is one of the exceptions- involve two teams filling out their different priorities.