Analysis: John Danks Signs Five-Year Extension with Chicago White Sox
A few weeks ago the Chicago White Sox traded their incumbent closer Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays for minor league prospect Nestor Molina. The trade raised some eyebrows as Santos was under club control for three more seasons at a very reasonable price for a closer. With the trade, other teams believed the White Sox and general manager Kenny Williams must be in rebuilding mode. John Danks‘ name was connected to various teams over since the Winter Meetings. That all went out the window yesterday when the White Sox instead gave Danks a 5-year extension worth $65 million. What was the reason for the reversal? Maybe the the suitors were not willing to pay the price the White Sox wanted in return for Danks and they just decided it would be better to sign him to a deal with the hopes of trading him down the line? This all remains to be seen. For now, let’s review the extension and see if the White Sox made a good deal.
Danks is coming off his worst season since 2007 based on his win/loss record which we know is truly meaningless in determining how he pitched. In 2011, he went 8-12 with a 4.33 ERA, but a 3.78 xFIP. His SO/9 was in line with other seasons at 7.13. He walked 2.43 men per nine innings which is his best season in that category. His BABIP against was high for him at .313. In 2009 his BABIP against was .267 and in 2010 it was .274. There was possibly some bad luck in play for Danks in 2011. Since his peripheral stats seemed to stay in line with previous seasons, it is safe to say he is the same pitcher who won 15 games in 2010. The wins just didn’t come to fruition in 2011.
The question is whether the White Sox made a good deal or not. Again, the deal came amid trade talks so the White Sox could be merely making Danks look more attractive to clubs since he is now signed for what seems like a reasonable amount. At 26 years old, a five-year deal pretty much encompasses what should be his better seasons. The chart below details how he would have to perform over the course of the contract in order for the White Sox to break even.
I began with 1 WAR = $5 million. Each subsequent season has 5% inflation added. By dividing $65 million by $27.63 million and multiplying the result by five (seasons) we arrive at 11.8 WAR required for the deal to break even. Danks had a 3.2 WAR last season and has topped out at 5.2 (in 2008). His low mark was 2.9 in 2009. It is fair to suggest that Danks can be a 3.5 WAR pitcher for each of the next three years and then begin to suffer a .5 decline in WAR for the each of the remaining two seasons. That adds to 16 WAR, which goes well above the deal. Even if Danks is a 2.5 WAR pitcher each of the next 5 seasons, the White Sox come out slightly ahead (12.5 to 11.8).
It seems safe to say the White Sox made an excellent deal whether they keep Danks or if they decide to trade him. If he performs similarly to how he has over the last few seasons, he will be a bargain throughout the duration of his contract.
Check out Southside Showdown for more on the White Sox. You can ‘Like’ Call to the Pen on Facebook here. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen and Christopher Carelli on Twitter at @BaseballStance.