Travis Wood traded to Chicago Cubs
This deal signifies that the Chicago Cubs are officially rebuilding, as they traded reliever Sean Marshall for Travis Wood and two minor-leaguers. It’s honestly tough to evaluate this trade without knowing who these two players are, because they can swing this deal either way. However, the Cubs were most likely not going to re-sign Marshall after his deal runs out in 2012, and his trade value is at its peak right now. Marshall is a relatively underrated reliever who is one of the best set-up men in baseball and was worth 2.8 WAR last season after a 2.2 WAR season in 2010.
Travis Wood, on the other hand, is coming off of a disappointing 2011 campaign in which he had a 4.61 xFIP in 106 innings. He was worth half of his 2010 value, as his 2011 WAR was just 1.1 WAR compared to a promising 2.2 WAR as a rookie. Wood hasn’t benefited from Dusty Baker’s mismanagement of young arms, so a move to Chicago will definitely help him out; I’m sure that Dale Sveum will do a better job of keeping him fresh than our favorite baker. I mean, the Reds manager has a reputation for too floury bread that is often stale.
Bad buns- er, puns- aside, Wood’s BABIP splits offer some interesting discussion. His BABIP in his solid 2010 season was .259, and that number exploded to .324 last season. That’s a pretty significant jump, and it contributed to his rise in FIP from 3.42 to 4.06. However, that doesn’t account for a drop in strikeout rate (7.54 to a poor 6.45) or his increased walk rate (2.28 to 3.40). Wood’s true value as a pitcher is somewhere between these two totals, but I’d wager that his value is closer to his 2010 season than his performance in 2011. I am even more sure that his walks were an aberration, because the only time since 2009 when he had over three walks per nine- at any level- was last season.
Wood has always been a pitcher who has generated a little more contact than he should, but his O-Swing% is a more interesting statistic to look at. He induced more chases than the average as a rookie, but he generated 7.5% less swings on pitches outside of the strike zone last season. He did throw more pitches in the zone in 2011, but it is interesting to note that he hasn’t thrown as many first pitch strikes. My theory is that he is falling behind in counts and trying to catch up to the hitter hasn’t yielded much success for him
A drop from a 3.88 SIERA to a mark of 4.55 is just too much to sustain, and I see Wood as a 2 WAR pitcher going forward. The fans on FanGraphs who project these sorts of things have him as a 2.5 WAR pitcher, and I see him as exactly a league-average pitcher next season if given enough innings.
On the other side of the deal, Sean Marshall is a reliever who will greatly boost the Reds bullpen. He was third among relievers last season with a 2.8 WAR, and I also see him as a 2 WAR player. There really isn’t much more to say about Marshall, other than he is the more valuable player in the short-term. The Reds are contenders in the NL Central, and relievers mean much more to contenders than they do to rebuilding clubs; such as the Cubs.
The two minor-leaguers give the Cubs the advantage in this deal, but Travis Wood looks like a league-average starter over his career and nothing more. Still, that’s not bad in the grand scheme of things and will definitely boost an awful pitching staff. The Cubs are also looking to trade their best pitcher, so adding some depth behind them will do them a world of good. Sean Marshall is a welcome addition to any bullpen, and I can see the Reds motives in this deal. That being said, those two minor-leaguers do make or break this deal for Cincy. They already traded a slew of prospects to obtain Mat Latos, but I doubt these prospects are anything special. Even so, the Reds aren’t in a position where they can give up too much of their young talent; for the sake of the Reds, let’s hope those two don’t end up being much. I doubt they are significant, but you never know these days; especially when a deal involves the sometimes confusing Walt Jocketty.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.