The St. Louis Cardinals have been looking to fill the “void” left by Albert Pujols, and they did so by signing former Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran to a two-year deal worth $26 million. However, there really wasn’t a void left behind by Pujols at all. Allen Craig was set to start in right field, which would then allow Lance Berkman to shift back to his natural position at first. Their lineup would obviously be weaker without Pujols, but Craig is a solid player who would be worth around 3 WAR over a full season. Beltran is an older, more expensive right fielder who provides an upgrade, but it should be noted that 3.5 WAR per season isn’t a huge upgrade over Craig.
I know that there are a lot of Cardinals fans out there who are happy with this deal, and this is really because part of Pujols’s “contract” is going to replenish the superstar they lost. However, they didn’t need really need him; Craig isn’t that much worse than Beltran. He is a better defensive player, and while their new RF is an offensive upgrade, Craig is still a solid hitter.
Bill James projects Carlos Beltran as a 2.5 WAR player, while the fans on FanGraphs have him as a 3.5 WAR player. If Beltran is fully healthy, he should be able to trump $13 million a year with ease. If we use James’s model, Beltran would be worth $12.6 million next year which is right in line with the contract. However, he should be worth more than that- at least 3 WAR- so it was a good deal in terms of WAR/$.
That’s a huge “if” right there, but it might actually be a worthy risk. Beltran should averaged out to be a 3 WAR player during these two seasons if we factor in decline, and Allen Craig could end up being a super-backup who fills in at nearly every position. I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on this deal, but it was honestly a solid one given Beltran’s talent and the money involved.
I mean, Allen Craig will provide value to this team even if he doesn’t start at RF. Craig should be worth 2 WAR and get 350 plate appearances, and maybe that’s where the Cards feel he is at. Either way, he’s going to have some value for the team during these two seasons, regardless of what position he plays or how much playing time he gets. I see Beltran as a player worth $15 million a year, so the Cardinals gave him his market value. His upside could definitely make this deal look better, but again, the Cardinals already have a capable starting right fielder. This was a solid deal when looking at the big picture, and this is important to note; a lot of people are giving the Cardinals too much credit for this one, but there are others who aren’t giving them enough credit. Beltran’s market was getting thin and was down to just the Indians and Cards. At the end of the day, St. Louis did what needed to be done; they added the hitter they desired and didn’t give him more than they needed to.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.