Name: Manny Machado
DOB: 7/6/92
Organization: Orioles
Position: Shortstop
Notable 2011 Stats: .276/.376/.483 with 8 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 25/23 K/BB, and 3-for-4 SB in 38 games with Delmarva (A);
.245/.308/.384 with 12 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 48/22 K/BB, and 8-for-13 SB in 63 games with Frederick (High-A);
.257/.335/.421 with 20 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 73/45 K/BB, and 11-for-17 SB in 101 games total
Why He’s This High: Selected third overall in the 2010 draft, Machado managed to not only meet, but exceed expectations in Low-A to open the season. He displayed a tremendous approach and excellent power, immediately slotting in as one of the South Atlantic League’s top hitters despite being an 18-year-old shortstop. Orioles brass was so impressed that Machado was quickly promoted, and he held his own in High-A once you take into account the tough Carolina League environment and Machado’s extreme youth.
Machado already boasts solid power and an advanced feel for hitting and for the strike zone as a teenager, and he should grow into more pop as he matures. He swings at good pitches and gets good plate coverage from his sound swing. He already doesn’t have a major weakness as a hitter, and as he adapts and matures, he could become a monster offensively. Furthermore, he should have some defensive value.
Why He’s This Low: The question is how much defensive value Machado will have. He’s got a large 6’3″ frame, and as his stolen base numbers indicate, he doesn’t boast plus raw speed. He’s fundamentally sound at shortstop and has a good arm, but there are already rumblings that he may have to move to third base down the line. He may be able to stick at shortstop early in his career before moving to third base later on, a la Alex Rodriguez or Jhonny Peralta (and probably Hanley Ramirez and Starlin Castro at some point). Obviously, if he’s an offensive star and a solid defensive third baseman, that still has tons of value, but the defensive concerns lower his value a little bit.
We also shouldn’t completely overlook the fact that Machado was only in Low-A for 38 games and didn’t excel in High-A. In some ways, that begs the same question that needs to be asked when discussing players like Martin Perez or Manny Banuelos: How much, exactly, do we let somebody slide for being young, and how much, exactly, of a performance boost should we attribute to them for that? Machado, after all, had a .756 OPS on the season; that’s not exactly stellar. Obviously, the age and position are a major factor, hence why he’s ranked this high, but Machado does still have a bit more to prove on the statistical side of things. He could use a repeat of Frederick to start 2012.
Conclusions: Machado comes in slightly ahead of #18 prospect Xander Bogaerts, and the two are similar in many ways. They’re both 6’3″ shortstops who may have to move to third base who overwhelmed the SAL at age 18. Machado has a better approach, a better chance of sticking at short (or third, for that matter), and is a bit closer to the majors. Bogaerts has more power. Machado’s edge in quantity of superlatives puts him a bit ahead of Bogaerts, but the outlook for him is quite similar: he could be a tremendous offensive player who can also contribute some with the glove. While he and Orioles #2 prospect Dylan Bundy are a long way away from the majors, at least they give long-suffering Orioles fans the slightest glimmer of hope.
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