2011 MLB Transactions: Washington Nationals Acquire Gio Gonzalez from Oakland A’s

It’s been a long wait for Nationals (and Expos) fans. The franchise hasn’t made a playoff appearance since 1981, and the only time they finished at the top of their division in franchise history was in the strike-shortened 1994 season. Suffice to say, things have been quite frustrating for followers of the franchise.

Finally, on Friday, the Nationals traded a package of four prospects to the A’s to acquire lefty starter Gio Gonzalez. To me, this signals one thing; the beginning of Phase Two. For the first time most of us can remember, the Nationals are in Win Now mode.

For the past several seasons, the Nationals have been considered somewhat of an impending threat. After receiving the first picks in the draft in both 2009 and 2010, the Nationals acquired two super-prospects in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, both of whom have been among the most-hyped prospects of all time. In addition, the Nationals’ principal owners, the Lerner family, are among the richest in baseball, at an estimated $3.5 billion net worth. With a B. With Strasburg in the rotation to start the year and Harper likely to see his first taste of big-league action in 2012, the team now has the core talent in place to compete, and with Lerner’s financial backing, they certainly have the money to bring in the pieces necessary to augment that talent.

Though the Nationals did give up a king’s ransom to get Gonzalez, he has a great shot to be worth the investment. A Super Two, Gonzalez has three more rounds of arbitration ahead of him, meaning he’ll be under Nats control until hitting free agency after the 2015 season. He presents a ton of risk, mostly in his history of control problems, but could offer up a massive reward. Gonzalez’s 10.5% walk rate was the worst among all qualified starters in baseball last year. However, that’s actually an improvement, and a continuation of the trend that has seen him improve his walk rates in each of his four years in the bigs. If Gonzalez can continue to reign in his control, his other skills will develop to their full potential. His 22.8% strikeout rate and 47.5% groundball rate both ranked in the top 15 in the AL last season, a perfect recipe for success. Gonzalez uses two fastballs, a four-seamer that clocks in at 92-95 MPH and an 89-93 MPH two-seamer with wicked arm-side run (in towards left-handed batters). He pairs those offerings with a knee-buckling curve, as well as a changeup he throws almost exclusively to righties. His pure stuff suggests the sky’s the limit for if he can learn to harness it a little more effectively and improve his control. Gonzalez’s worm-burning ways will also play significantly better in Washington, where he’ll be surrounded by a collection of superior infield gloves. Using three-year UZR averages at their projected positions, three of Washington’s four infield starters are above-average defenders, in first baseman Adam LaRoche, second baseman Danny Espinosa, and former Gold Glove recipient third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. The only below-average defender in the bunch is shortstop Ian Desmond, and even Desmond’s defense took a significant step forward last season. In contrast, none of the A’s projected starting infielders have a track record of adding value on defense, with third baseman Scott Sizemore and shortstop Cliff Pennington the worst offenders. Last season, both were more than five runs below average.

To get Gonzalez, the Nationals sent a fairly impressive package of prospects to Oakland, including catcher Derek Norris, RHPs AJ Cole and Brad Peacock, and lefty Tom Milone. All but Milone were top 10 prospects in the Nationals’ farm system. Peacock made his major league debut this year, and seems likely to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation candidate for the A’s. At 22, Norris finished 7th in the Eastern League with 20 homers. While he’s never going to hit for average, his patience and power at the plate are an extremely valuable combination, especially in a backstop. Cole has the highest ceiling of any player in this package, and with a towering 6’4” frame and a blazing 94-96 MPH fastball, it’s not hard to picture the 19-year-old developing into a front-of-the-rotation starter. He’s yet to pitch above A-ball, however, so the A’s will hope that he can continue to move smoothly along his development path. Milone’s stuff is anything but overpowering, so he relies on excellent control and deception to get hitters out. He doesn’t have the tools to pitch out of the bullpen, so his potential Major League career will hinge on his ability to succeed as a fifth starter.

The NL East has never looked tougher. The Phillies have expanded payroll each season since 2006, and at $166M operated with the largest payroll of any NL team in 2011 by more than $30M. They’re not quite the National League’s answer to the Yankees, but they’re quickly approaching that territory, and this offseason’s Papelbon signing suggests they’re not planning on backing down anytime soon. Of course, the Marlins have been insanely aggressive this offseason in advance of their move into their new ballpark in 2012, and can no longer be ignored as a potential contender. The Braves have consistently proven to be one of MLB’s best franchises at developing young talent, especially when it comes to arms. A club with their ability to produce young, controllable studs will always be in the mix, whether they’re using those players in the big leagues (Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel) or as trade bait to fill the team’s other needs (Bourn). While the Mets currently lag behind the pack, GM/baseball demigod Sandy Alderson has them moving in the right direction for the first time in years. When they’re ready to compete, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with, as their market obviously has the potential to support a massive payroll and their current minor league talent suggests a bright future is in store.

However, the Nationals believe they’re up to the challenge. With Gonzalez in the fold to complement righties Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, the Nats’ rotation boasts one of the best young core groups in baseball, all of whom will remain (relatively) cheap and under team control until at least 2016. While the prospect package they surrendered in exchange was immense, the Nationals believe they’re ready to compete now, and for several years into the future. The Nats’ window of contention will likely revolve around Strasburg and Harper, so they’re rightly looking for players that can contribute the most between now and sometime around 2016, a description which Gonzalez fits perfectly. The franchise hopes that this will be a move toward the city’s first championship since Walter Johnson won Game 7 of the 1924 World Series for the Senators. Giving up big-time prospects always stings, but flags fly forever, and given the Nats’ newly minted Win Now focus, this is an excellent move that will bring them a step closer to their ultimate goal.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.