It is difficult to analyze a trade of this magnitude when the Oakland A’s are purposely dealing anyone who is going to cost them a large chunk of change now or in the near future. It started with the trade of Trevor Cahill, picked up steam with the trade of Gio Gonzalez and has possibly culminated with the trade of closer Andrew Bailey to the Boston Red Sox. We can look at the players involved, but realize that this deal is not necessarily about who came out better. Due to the circumstances A’s general manager Billy Beane feels he is in, he wins just by shedding salary and Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington wins by receiving an experienced closer without giving up much.
There has been some recent discussion that the A’s could finally get approval to move to San Jose, CA. The San Francisco Giants believe this is encroaching on their territory and have voiced their displeasure of the move to MLB. But, new chatter seems to indicate that MLB will entertain the move and could approve it as early as February. Running on this assumption, Beane is taking measures to limit payroll as much as he can. This has the benefit of low costs while they stay in Oakland and in a way puts some pressure on MLB to allow the move so that the A’s can compete with the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers in the American League West Division.
The main party in the deal is Bailey, the 27 year-old reliever who has been a successful closer for the A’s for the last three seasons. Below are Bailey’s standard stats.
| Year | Age | ERA | G | SV | IP | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 25 | 1.84 | 68 | 26 | 83.1 | 0.876 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 9.8 |
| 2010 | 26 | 1.47 | 47 | 25 | 49.0 | 0.959 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 7.7 |
| 2011 | 27 | 3.24 | 42 | 24 | 41.2 | 1.104 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 8.9 |
| 3 Seasons | 2.07 | 157 | 75 | 174.0 | 0.954 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 9.0 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/29/2011.
Bailey has averaged 25 saves the last three seasons, including his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2009. He has suffered arm injuries in each of the last two seasons which has limited his innings, but has not hindered his effectiveness. The Red Sox stated they have fully vetted Bailey’s medical records and feel he is in perfect health. Bailey himself attests to the same.
When reviewing the stat line, you’ll notice Bailey’s ERA rose dramatically last season. This shouldn’t come as too much of a shock if you know that Bailey’s xFIP in 2009 was 3.20, in 2010 it was 3.63 and last season it was almost in line with a 3.52. So a future ERA in the 3’s is more realistic for Bailey and the move to Boston will almost ensure this.
Bailey predominantly throws a fastball, cutter and curve. Pitchf/x values show each pitch to be on the plus side for his career, with the fastball being his best pitch. He sits in the low-mid 90’s for his fastball speed. His curveball speed has a 6-8 mph split from the fastball with good movement thus keeping batters off balance. He also has good movement on the cutter.
In terms of value, the Red Sox get a player who is eligible for arbitration. He is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $3.5 million in 2012. There is no telling whether the Red Sox will sign him to a longer term deal or not. For our purposes we’ll look at a one year deal. At $5 million per 1 WAR, Bailey will need to produce at a rate of 0.7 WAR. In his three seasons, he has surpassed this value each time. My guess is that he will be able to easily attain the 0.7 WAR and probably be closer to 1.2 range if he provides a full season as the Red Sox closer.
There are several other components to the deal. The A’s also send Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox. Sweeney could be in the mix for some time in the Red Sox outfield. The Red Sox send Josh Reddick and two young minor league prospects to the A’s. One prospect is 20 year-old first baseman Miles Head and the other is 19 year-old pitcher Raul Alcantara. These guys are green and there is no telling their value at this time. We can look at Reddick, beginning with his 2011 stats below.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 24 | BOS | 87 | 278 | 41 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 28 | .280 | .327 | .457 | .784 |
| 3 Seasons | 143 | 403 | 51 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 37 | .248 | .290 | .416 | .706 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/29/2011.
Reddick came up from AAA last season in late June and performed well early on. In 36 games in June and July he hit .333 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. He came back to earth along the way as seen in his final stats above. He does not steal bases, but he is a very good fielder (20.2 UZR/150 in just over 600 innings). The A’s are looking to put him straight into the 2012 lineup.
Reddick is going to come cheap as he is not eligible for free agency until 2014. He made $417.5K last season so expect a small bump in salary for 2012. In minimal time, Reddick generated a 1.9 WAR, much of that derived from his defense, but none the less he should produce at least the same figure with a full season of at-bats, and likely something higher.
The deal essentially works out for each team. The A’s eliminated two more arbitration eligible players and received a starting outfielder and two prospects. The Red Sox received an experienced closer who will not be expensive for them, a utility player and it allows for the transition of Daniel Bard to the rotation.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook. You can also subscribe to our RSS feed. Christopher Carelli can be followed on Twitter at @BaseballStance.