On November 9th, James Chipman launched the 2012 Seedlings to Stars Florida State League All-Star Team with an intro post. He went on to reveal 8 members of the team before leaving our site to focus his writing efforts on out Detroit Tigers site, Motor City Bengals. Nathaniel and I decided that we needed to reveal the rest of the team to take the series to its planned endpoint. To tie up the loose end I will be unveiling the rest of roster and will follow a similar format to what James was doing for consistency.
Today I am pleased to announce our selection for the team’s #4 Starter.
Name: Julio Rodriguez
Height: 6′ 4″
Weight: 195 lbs
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 21
2011 FSL Team: Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
2011 FSL Stats: 156.2 IP (27 GS), 2.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 5.9 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 SO/9 and 3.0 SO/BB
Background:
The Phillies selected the Puerto Rico native in the 8th Round of the 2008 draft and gave him a $110,000 bonus. After signing he made his professional debut as a 17-year old in the GCL and got 10.1 innings of work under his belt before the end of the season. His 2009 season was also spent in the GCL before he made his way to the New York-Penn and South Atlantic Leagues in 2010. He spent the entire 2011 season in the FSL and didn’t turn 21 until August 29th.
Behind the Numbers:
Rodriguez has been stunningly consistent since his debut season back in 2008 and has done an excellent job of maintaining his ratios as he’s advanced. While his 2011 season in the FSL was in many ways more of the same, it was also a breakout year. For the first time in his pro career he spent the entire season as a starter and cruised past the 100 inning mark as a result. His stint with Clearwater accounts for more than half of his 307.0 career innings. In that time he’s allowed just 213 hits and walked 113 while striking out 358.
The statistical consistency from season to season is one thing, but also noteworthy is his consistency from start to start. In 2011 he took the mound 27 times, only once did he fail to get through 5 innings and that one start was his first back on April 11th. He lasted 7.0 innings 7 times – 26% of his starts – and allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start just four times.
Scouting Report:
Rodriguez isn’t your typical pitching prospect. Very few guys hit the ground running like he did in his first full season. Instead of experiencing some statistical hiccups while advancing, he’s instead held serve or improved. Despite the strong statistical profile, youth and projectability you won’t find Rodriguez at the top of many prospect lists. The reason for this is due to his “middling” stuff, but there’s something here that goes beyond what he throws and in fairness he’s no slouch when it comes to his pitches. He throws a high-80s fastball that he can run up to 93 as well as a curveball and a slider. But it’s his 4th pitch – a changeup that is already solid-average that makes me optimistic about his future.
He already has a knack for changing speeds, repeats his delivery well and has a little natural deception in his motion. All of these things help his stuff play up. Rodriguez has already added velocity since turning pro and there is room for him to pick up a few more mph on his fastball as he continues to develop. His curveball also has some projection to it which will further augment his status as a prospect if he can fully harness it’s potential.
Taking Julio Rodriguez as he is today, he came in at #67 on our Top-100 this offseason and Nathaniel wrote the following in that profile:
"While it is indeed possible that Rodriguez’s strengths will swallow his deficiencies in the long run, or vice versa, I believe that the most likely outcome is that he’ll become a durable mid-rotation starter. Don’t get focused too much on the excellent performance or the middling stuff–the key here is that Rodriguez has good polish and passable skills at age 21 and projects to improve."
Future:
Nathaniel went on to offer up Ted Lilly as a possible comp for Julio and I think that is a reasonable conclusion based on the points he made, but I personally believe Rodriguez will surpass that type of career. I say that knowing that Lilly has been an above average major league pitcher (107 ERA+) over the course of his 13-year big league career.
As a minor leaguer, Lilly had better control but show the ability to limit hits and miss bats like Julio until he was on the cusp of the majors and in his mid-20s. That’s not to say the Lilly comp isn’t well based, but I think it is important to recognize the differences as much as the similarities.
Obviously Double-A will be his next challenge and his likely destination to open the 2012 season. It’s a big jump for any prospect but given his profile I think Rodriguez is going to handle it with aplomb. I agree with Nathaniel that we’re most likely looking at a mid-rotation guy here, but I’m not going to dismiss what I’ve seen so far and limit him to that outcome.
For a 21-year old who just finished up a season in the FSL, I believe Rodriguez has a better chance than most of his peers to reach the majors and have a long and productive career in the process. I’m sure many will say I’m being overly optimistic – and based just on his stuff they’re probably right – but when I look at Julio Rodriguez I see a reliable #3 starter in the long run. Beyond that I see a pitcher who will also perform at the level of a #2 a couple times in his career. He’s just going to get it done in a slightly different way.
Instead of the parts being greater than the sum, Julio Rodriguez is a prospect who is already greater than the sum of his parts.
To review the rest of our 2011 Florida State League All-Star Team, click here.
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