In our next to last honorable mention before the real list starts, we go with Rangers third base prospect Christian Villanueva, signed out of Mexico by the Rangers back in 2009. Villanueva had an excellent season for the Hickory Rawdads, the Rangers Sally League affiliate, hitting .278 with 30 doubles, 17 homers, 84 RBI, 32 stolen bases (6 CS), a .338 OBP, and a .465 SLG in 126 games. It was an outstanding season, and even though Villanueva was not quite good enough to make my South Atlantic League All-Star team, he certainly deserves recognition.
Villanueva’s .187 ISO in 2011 was well above the league of .132, and despite that power, he struck out just 86 times all season, 16.7% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 20.1%. Villanueva did not show great plate discipline, walking just 37 times, 7.2% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 8.5%, but his great speed, uncommon for a third baseman just about made up for that. Villanueva’s 32 stolen bases tied for 6th-most in the Sally League. The next-highest 3rd baseman on the list was Hagerstown’s Blake Kelso with 24. Villanueva’s power and speed combination is special for a third baseman.
Villanueva doesn’t look anything like a third baseman. In fact, if there wasn’t a player on the actual Sally League All-Star team according to me playing shortstop for Hickory, maybe he would be playing shortstop. Villanueva is just 5-11, 160 making him a projectable power bat, albeit at the cost of some of his speed. Still, he could be a 25 homer threat while stealing 20 bases going forward. Something limiting him right now is his plate discipline, but there were some good indicators for Villanueva in 2011. First, a bad one- his .338 OBP was inflated by 12 hit-by-pitches. But according to Minor League Central, he swung at just 17.3% of pitches outside the zone compared to the league average of 24.6%. He showed a good eye, swinging at 90.2% of pitches within the zone, just above the league average of 89.4%. Villanueva’s 1.66 P/PA in 2011 was just below the league average of 1.74, so it’s pretty crazy that he walked so little. Villanueva’s plate discipline should improve in later seasons based on that, in addition to the fact that it’s going to naturally get better as he matures as a player- Villanueva will turn just 21 years old in June.
In terms of Villanueva’s power, he posted a nice but certainly reasonable HR/OFB% (percentage of home runs among flyballs to the outfield), 12.9% compared to the league average of 9.1%. His power is real. He also posted a 16.0% line drive percentage, just under the league average of 16.4%, so he was by no means a hitter completely dependent on flyballs going for home runs and extra-base hits. But there was one aspect of batted balls in which Villanueva has a lot of room to improve. Villanueva percentage of flyballs to the outfield among batted balls (OFB%) was 34.6%, well above the league average of 29.2%, but he hit way too many pop-ups, 12.9% of his batted balls compared to the league average of 9.1%. If Villanueva can turn those pop-ups into outfield flyballs and line drives, he’ll be more successful. Villanueva’s swing is quick with a very short stride, allowing him to make a lot of contact, and he has to work to make more solid contact as well. But he certainly has the ability to do so.
Defensively, Villanueva has a strong arm and his good speed gives him nice range defensively. His .942 Fld% was impressive for such a young third baseman. Villanueva looks out of place at third base, but that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily have to move off the position long term.
Christian Villanueva was a complete unknown coming into the season for the Rangers, but he’s a talented prospect. It tells you something that the Rangers skipped him straight from Rookie ball to Low-A and it tells you even more that he was so successful. Villanueva is another talented prospect in the Rangers organization, and he’s another player to watch as he progresses through the minors.
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