Carlos Zambrano‘s enigmatic tenure on the Chicago Cubs has come to an end, and the team has shipped him to the Miami Marlins for pitcher Chris Volstad. The Cubs have to pay $15 million of his bloated $18 million contract, but it’s also the last year of his deal. He has a 2013 vesting option if he is one of the top four pitchers in Cy Young voting, but that’s definitely not a likely scenario for Z.
Zambrano broke a streak of eight straight seasons over 2 WAR last season and was worth 0.9 WAR. He is no longer durable, and his strikeout rate is beginning to fall. In 145.2 innings last year, he had a 6.24 K/9 and walked 3.46 hitters per nine innings. He was a little unlucky last season with a .298 BABIP and an 11.3 HR/FB%, but Zambrano is throwing less strikes and hitters are making more contact off of him than they used to. His swinging strike percentage was a paltry 6.7%, and his fastball is getting slower and considerably less effective every season.
The good news is that Carlos Zambrano is pitching well in the Venezuela, but the bad- and more rational- news is that it’s hardly much consolation. The skill level in the Winter Leagues are considerably worse, but there is some importance to this. His numbers last season were mostly career anomalies, and they could either be due to poor health, distractions, decline, or bad luck.
While it is true that a change of scenery could help Z, I don’t think it really does much. He’s about a 1.8 WAR pitcher if we use his last three seasons for a Marcel and believe the fans who sent in projections on FanGraphs. If we cut three seasons down to two, Zambrano’s value drops to 1.4 WAR. That’s around his true value, and he isn’t a horrible pitcher. He is a No. 4 or 5 starter at this point, but the Marlins will only be paying him $3 million to provide some value.
Chris Volstad has improved since a disastrous 2009 season, and he has been worth 1.8 and 1.3 WAR in the past two seasons. Volstad struck out 6.36 hitters per nine and had a 2.66 BB/9, and he did legitimately improve if you take a look at the plate discipline statistics. He is throwing less strikes and more first-pitch strikes, therefore causing more hitters to chase and allowing much less contact. Volstad had a swinging strike percentage of 7.9% last season.
Although he induces groundballs 50.4% of the time, he also has a HR/FB of 12.3% (both are career totals). Volstad allows a little more than a home run every nine innings, and hitters have no trouble knocking one out of the park on him. He was slightly unlucky with a .310 BABIP and a 15.5 HR/FB%, and he had an all too generous 3.64 xFIP.
His SIERA and tERA tell two totally different stories, as his tERA was 4.94 and his SIERA was 3.84. Most of the pitchers on the Cubs staff have a lower xFIP than ERA, and Chris Volstad will fit in somewhat with those guys. He is about a 1.5 WAR No. 5 starter who is only a hair worse than Zambrano.
The Chicago Cubs really wanted to dump Zambrano somewhere, because this is a guy who obviously has caused a lot of headaches for this Cubs team over the year. His angry rants and blow-ups on the mound were unnecessary, and they were able to trade him for a pitcher who is only slightly worse. The Marlins had no problem with taking on a headcase- provided the Cubs would eat most of his contract- and received the better pitcher out of the deal. I would say that this qualifies as a win for both of these teams, because $3 million for a 1.5 WAR pitcher is a pretty good deal contract-wise. And, of course, the Cubs really couldn’t stand living with Zambrano anymore.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.