Tampa Bay Rays sign Fernando Rodney
Fernando Rodney has agreed to a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays worth $1.75 million, and the deal includes an option for the 2013 season worth $2.5 million with a $250,000 buyout. The former Tigers and Angels closer has never been worth 1 WAR in his career, and he was worth -0.2 WAR last season. In 430 career innings, he sports an 8.23 K/9 but also walks an unsightly 4.88 batters per nine. He is able to induce a high amount of groundballs, but he has also allowed 0.75 home runs for every nine innings he pitches.
Over the past three seasons, Rodney has been worth a combined 0.9 WAR and never had his ERA, FIP, or xFIP under 4 during any of those seasons. He did manage to save 37 games in 2009, but his 4.56 FIP proves that the saves mean nothing. Rodney’s fastball is electric and is 95-96 miles per hour, but he is successively getting worse as a pitcher each season.
The plate discipline statistics tell a good portion of the story, because Rodney’s control is faltering and hitters are making more contact on his pitches. His swinging strike percentage took a steep turn for the worst in 2009, and Rodney has had two poor seasons in 2010 and 2011 after a career year (which was only average) in 2009.
Rodney is a reliever who is being paid to be worth 0.4 WAR, and he was worth this much in 2008 and 2009. He has a terrific fastball and a nice changeup, but his command is just awful. Rodney walks nearly five guys every nine innings, and that’s just not getting it done; he is only about a league-average reliever at this point who will most likely be used as a middle reliever.
If any team can mold Fernando Rodney into an effective high-leverage reliever, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays. At this point, however he is only a 0.2 WAR RP who can’t find the strike zone and had a WPA of -1.99 in 32 innings last season. It is small sample size, but you have to achieve a certain degree of awfulness to have a WPA of almost -2.
The Rays have helped many castoff closers turn into legitimate high-leverage relievers, and they are only paying just under $2 million to Rodney to try and do this. They are among the best teams in the Majors at retooling a players command, and they can get him back to 0.4 WAR form. This is a decent move for the Rays, because they are a team that needs to make these signings to replenish the bullpen. They play it smart and don’t overpay for talent, they get those cheap veterans who have had some success in the MLB. Rodney is one of those guys, and he should fulfill the overall value of this contract.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.