Jon Heyman has revealed the financial details of the Seattle Mainers recent bullpen addition, and it looks like Hong-Chih Kuo should be on his way to making at least a half million in 2012. The former Los Angeles Dodgers reliever is guaranteed $500,000, but that number rises to $1 million if he is on the active roster. Kuo ‘s incentives peak to a $2.25 million total, which isn’t bad for a player who was worth 2.2 WAR two seasons ago.
Since 2007, the WAR totals for the oft-injured, inspiring Taiwanese pitcher have been 0.4, 2.2, 0.4, 2.2, and -0.4. It’s a fairly interesting numerical pattern, because Kuo rotated from 0.4 to 2.2 WAR in each season until last year. He was worth -0.4 WAR in another injury-plagued year. Hopefully he bounces back after arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow in October and is worth 1.4 WAR (2.2 minus 0.8, because of the difference between 0.4 and -0,4 WAR).
As a pitcher, Kuo is one of the best relievers in the business when fully healthy. He owns a career 2.97 FIP and strikes out 11 batters every nine innings, but he does walk nearly five batters during the same time frame. Still, he owns a career 3.15 SIERA and is one of those pitchers who doesn’t get shelled when he allows a hit.
Hong Chih-Kuo has 1.5 WAR upside if he is healthy next year, but he holds no value if he isn’t healthy. Kuo should be worth 0.7 WAR, with the safe projection holding him at 0.5 WAR (Marcel says 0.6 WAR). With a great fastball and solid slider, Kuo will continue to allow less than three-fourths of his pitches to end up in play and will get a swinging strike on one-eighth of his pitches.
Kuo has huge upside, but he also has huge downside given his injury risk. The Mariners, however, made the perfect deal here. They made a huge upgrade to a terrible bullpen, and it’s difficult to go wrong when giving a cheap, one-year deal to a reliever who has the chance to be among the best at his position during that one season.
Using $1 million as the value for his contract, we can calculate that Hong-Chih Kuo will be expected to produce 0.2 WAR if fully healthy, in order to justify this deal. That is the lowest expected total for a healthy Kuo, and he is most likely going to be worth 0.7 WAR if on the active roster.
It’s great how the M’s included this incentive, because they will only have to pay him half of that in guaranteed money. Kuo is basically given replacement-level change in guaranteed money, which means the Mariners hardly feel a sting if Kuo feels sharp pain in his elbow. They can reap the full upside of his contract ($2.25 million matches his expected 0.5 WAR total) and won’t feel harm from any ill-effects of this deal.
Seattle didn’t add the best free agent on the market, but they added a necessary piece to their bullpen and gave him a deal that fits Hong-Chih Kuo’s abilities at this point. They will either lose a negligible amount of money, or they will gain a tidy million in profit. This was a satisfying deal for both parties, and this is the kind of under-the-radar move (on a grand scale) that helps teams improve their overall roster and look better in the late innings. Don’t be surprised if Kuo supplants Brandon League as the closer in Seattle if he’s healthy, or, more likely, he significantly outperforms him as the team’s star set-up man.
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