With the S2S 2012 Top 100 Prospects List now in the books, it’s time to take a closer look at the future of each team. And that means team prospect lists!
Most minor league sites will do top-10s, top-15s, top-20s, or some other ranking. Last year, to be a bit different, the FanSided team prospect lists (which were done at Call to the Pen, since S2S didn’t exist), instead listed a team’s top prospect at each position (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OFs, 5 SPs, and 2 RPs). This year, we’re keeping that format, but also adding a “Best of the Rest” section that lists the top ten players beyond the positional rankings. That’s 25 players per system, if you’re counting.
Philadelphia Phillies
The way that I’ve been grading systems thus far, overall grades have bottomed out at C, with the occasional upside or depth grade going down to C-. I didn’t think I’d be giving out anything worse, but then I saw the Phillies position players. Yikes.
On a happier note, the pitching here is in pretty good shape, especially in terms of depth. Trevor May has very good upside, and there’s a huge pile of potential third, fourth, or fifth starters. The bullpen situation is also in great shape.
Position Player Upside: D+
Position Player Depth: D+
Pitching Upside: B
Pitching Depth: A
System Grade: C+
Catcher: Sebastian Valle. Valle hit .284/.312/.394 in High-A, enough to be the consensus top position prospect in the system, which says a lot more about the system’s position players than it does about Valle. He’s got a good arm, some feel for contact, and some pop, and he was young for the level, so he’s sort of like a higher-floor, lower-upside version of fellow NL East catching prospect Christian Bethancourt. Like Bethancourt, his biggest need is to gain some control of the strike zone; without it, Miguel Olivo‘s career is the absolute best-case outcome. Grade: B-
First base: Matt Rizzotti. After a 2010 season that saw him hit .343/.430/.555 across three levels and reach Triple-A, Rizzotti was curiously forced to spend all of 2011 in Double-A, where he continued to mash (.295/.392/.511). Now 26, he’s basically on the minor league slugger career path, and needs a huge season in Triple-A this year to try to get somebody’s attention. Grade: C
Second base: Carlos Alonso. Alonso walked nearly twice as much as he struck out in Low-A this year, with a 13/25 K/BB in 48 games. He was 23, so he’s squarely in deep sleeper territory, especially since he’s just an average defender at second who isn’t much of a threat on the bases and whose power is mostly to the gaps. He could be a poor man’s Jeff Keppinger, but needs to move quickly. Grade: C
Third base: Maikel Franco. Franco flopped in a short SAL audition, but he acquitted himself decently in the NYPL (.287/.367/.411). Just 18 for most of last season, he controlled the strike zone well at the lower level (30/25 K/BB) and showed off surprisingly polished defense at third base. He’ll need to turn some doubles into homers as he moves up, but time is on his side. Grade: C+
Shortstop: Roman Quinn. A 2011 second-round pick, Quinn has yet to be tested in pro ball, so I’m taking the conservative path with him. A Florida high school product, he’s known for his outstanding speed, as some considered him the fastest player in the draft class. He’ll have to prove he can translate that speed into good shortstop defense, as many have him begged for a B.J. Upton-esque transition to center field down the line. We’ll also have to see how well he controls the zone and gets on base against pro pitching. There is considerable upside here, but it remains to be seen what beyond the speed is going to come to pro ball. Grade: C+
Outfielder #1: Larry Greene. Picked 39th overall in 2011, Greene is a burly slugger with excellent power from the left side. He’s going to have to retain all the athleticism he currently has if he’s going to be a competent defensive left fielder, and like Quinn, he’ll have to prove his approach works in pro ball, but you don’t see many teenagers with this grade of power. Grade: B-
Outfielder #2: Jiwan James. James will be 23 in April, but he remains raw. He gets thrown out on a third of his steal attempts, he strikes out three times for every walk, and his power is limited to the occasional double. He plays a good center field, but if he’s going to have even Dewayne Wise‘s career, he’s got to get more polish offensively. Grade: C
Outfielder #3: Brian Pointer. An extremely deep sleeper, Pointer was a 28th-round pick in 2010 who hit .278/.353/.503 in the Gulf Coast League. He’s not just a one-dimensional slugger, as he has the athleticism to steal the occasional base and play good defense in the corners. Obviously a longshot, but he’ll be just 20 for the 2012 season, so a repeat performance might get him on the radar. Grade: C
Starting Pitcher #1: Trevor May. May put up some ridiculous numbers in High-A–how often does a minor leaguer strike out 208 batters in a season? His career K/9 is almost at 12, and he’s made progress in curbing his walk problems. In particular, he was absolutely lights-out in the second half of 2011, with a 120/32 K/BB in 80 1/3 innings (compared to “just” 88/35 in 71 first-half frames). Scouts still have some reservations about his sequencing, but he shows a very good fastball/curveball combination and a decent changeup. He needs to put together a whole season of sub-4 BB/9, but he’s a very impressive prospect. Grade: A-
Starting Pitcher #2: Julio Rodriguez. At some point, there’s got to be a consensus on this guy. He put up obscene numbers in the lower A levels in 2010 (including a–seriously, what the hell–90-strikeout-in-56 1/3-inning run in Low-A), and followed that up by posting a 2.67 ERA and striking out nearly ten batters per nine in the FSL at age 20. His velocity ranges anywhere from 85-93 mph, and he relies on a deceptive presentation with a hip turn and high legkick; he also has extreme flyball tendencies. The delivery, arsenal, and statistics remind me of a righthanded Ted Lilly. If he does this again as a 21-year-old in Double-A, it’ll finally be time for everyone to agree he projects to reach the Lilly level. Grade: B+
Starting Pitcher #3: Jesse Biddle. An intimidating 6’6″ lefthander and former first-round pick, Biddle didn’t quite put things together in his full-season debut. He had a 2.98 ERA and allowed just five homers, but he walked a batter every other inning and didn’t have the May-level strikeout ability to excuse that. He has to do a better job of coordinating his delivery and pounding the zone, but he’s just 20 and still holds solid mid-rotation upside. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher #4: Jon Pettibone. A big, command-oriented righthander with a solid-across-the-board assortment of pitches, Pettibone’s strikeout numbers are nowhere near those of the three pitchers ahead of him, but he also walks far fewer batters and gets tons of grounders. There’s not a ton to dream on here, but it’s also not hard to see him as a very good fourth starter in the majors. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher #5: Tyler Cloyd. Unlike the four guys above him, Cloyd has actually made the jump to Double-A, and he put up a 99/15 K/BB there this year. He was 24 and doesn’t have great stuff (88-92 mph fastball, solid slider and change), but I wouldn’t be against anyone who puts up this kind of statline in his first crack at Double-A. Like Pettibone, a future solid fourth starter. Grade: B
Relief Pitcher #1: Phillippe Aumont. The gargantuan righthander was finally moved permanently to relief and responded with a breakout year. He still doesn’t really throw as many strikes as you’d like, but when he’s getting grounders and strikeouts in almost every non-walk plate appearance, it really stops mattering. One of the best relief prospects in the game, and a potential 2012 bullpen asset. Grade: B
Relief Pitcher #2: Justin De Fratus. A lot of people seem to really love De Fratus, but I see him as more of a generic fastball/slider middle reliever. Like Aumont, he has crazy numbers, and his command is better than Aumont’s, but he’s over a year older and doesn’t have the same sort of velocity, working at 90-94 and relying mostly on his slider. That’s not to say he’s not a good relief prospect–he could easily have several sub-3.00 ERA/FIP seasons–but I’d be surprised if he has a significantly better career than Michael Wuertz did. Grade: C+
Best of the Rest
#1.) Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP. Another in the long line of interesting A-ball arms, Bonilla had a nice year as a swingman, starting out in the bullpen and continuing to pitch well in 15 starts. Like Cloyd, he’s basically a three-solid-pitches guy, but Bonilla does get good sink on his fastball, so he’s yet another hurler adept at getting grounders. He’s not big and will need to prove he can hold up for a full season, but is another potential solid fourth starter. Grade: B-
#2.) Austin Wright, LHP. An 8th-round pick out of Ole Miss, Wright had an excellent pro debut, with an 85/22 K/BB between the NYPL and SAL. He’s a big guy with a nice fastball/curve combination, and is a nice 2012 breakout candidate in his first full year. Grade: B-
#3.) Ervis Manzanillo, LHP. Among Lakewood lefties, Biddle and even Wright got more attention, but Manzanillo’s performance wasn’t too far off from Biddle’s, and he was also 19. Any teenager who can strike out eight batters per nine innings as a full-season starter has to be looked on favorably, and Manzanillo has a live arm and some decent secondary offerings. He needs to add some bulk and sharpen his command, or else he’ll end up as a power lefty reliever, but he’s got time on his side. An overlooked sleeper. Grade: B-
#4.) Garett Claypool, RHP. An 11th-round pick in 2010, Claypool is a former UCLA swingman who has carved up pro hitters in the low minors, with a 196/62 K/BB in 171 1/3 innings. He’s already 23 and has yet to see even High-A ball, so he’ll need to move quickly, and he’s not the sort of guy who lights up radar guns, but he’s another sleeper who finds a way to miss bats and could be a solid #4 starter. Grade: C+
#5.) Michael Schwimer, RHP. Overlooked due to the presence of Aumont and De Fratus, Schwimer put up some very impressive Triple-A numbers of his own in 2011, and like De Fratus, he made it to Philly late in the season. A massive 6’8″ pitcher, Schwimer has a similar repertoire to De Fratus’, as he works in the low-90’s with his fastball and relies heavily on his hard slider. He also has a solid changeup, and he gets good plane and deception. He’s a future middle-relief workhorse in the Jon Rauch mold. Grade: C+
#6.) Brody Colvin, RHP. While his stuff is better than that of many of the pitchers I have above him, Colvin has yet to put it to much use. He struck out just 78 batters and walked 42 in 116 2/3 innings in High-A last year, also hitting ten batters and uncorking 13 wild pitches. His mechanics are inconsistent, and he has yet to prove he can hold up for 150-inning seasons with such a violent delivery. That combination has me thinking he’s best served moving to relief. Grade: C+
#7.) Austin Hyatt, RHP. Hyatt has crazy-good strikeout numbers (11 K/9 career, 10 K/9 in Double-A in 2011) on the back of a fantastic changeup, but he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and that caught up to him in 2011, as he allowed 20 homers in 154 1/3 innings. He’d fit well in Oakland or San Diego, but with just one plus pitch and that glaring statistical flaw, he’s just another possible fourth or fifth starter in the bigs. Grade: C+
#8.) Freddy Galvis, SS. After four straight horrific offensive seasons (never above a .300 OBP or .600 OPS), Galvis got things together enough to hit .278/.324/.392 between Double-A and Triple-A at age 21, which is actually pretty impressive, all things considered. He’s not going to win any Silver Slugger awards, but he’s a fantastic defender who can hit at the bottom of the order. Basically Cristian Guzman 2.0. Grade: C+
#9.) Perci Garner, RHP. A second-round pick in 2010, Garner has just 34 innings of pro experience, none in full-season ball, and he’s already 23. That means he’ll need to move quickly, but he’s got a very good fastball and a solid curveball. He’s most likely a power reliever in the end, but does have intriguing upside given the quality of his stuff. Grade: C+
#10.) Harold Garcia, 2B. Garcia had a nice 2010 season, hitting .305/.365/.441 between High-A and Double-A, including a 37-game hit streak. However, he turned 24 after that season, and thus could ill-afford to tear his ACL just 12 games into the 2011 campaign. He’s thus now 25 and has yet to sniff Triple-A. A switch-hitter, he could be a future 2B/3B/LF/RF utility type. Grade: C
The complete list of S2S 2012 Team Prospect Rankings can be found here.
For more on the Phillies, check out That Balls Outta Here.
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