The Market for Mike Gonzalez

Former Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves closer Mike Gonzalez is still a free agent after pitching 53.1 innings for both the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles last season. The lefty was worth 0.3 WAR in the worst season of his career with at least 40 innings pitched, but he was still about an average reliever. An interesting fact is that Gonzalez has not had a negative WPA for eight seasons and excels in high leverage situations. He shouldn’t get a closing role, but he still has quite a bit to offer to teams around the league. There are a handful of teams who could sign Gonzalez, but some of those teams have budget and roster constraints that will limit their ability to give him a suitable offer.

The most recent team to express interest in Gonzalez is the Oakland Athletics, who are interesting in both Koji Uehara and Gonzalez. They were both relievers for the Texas Rangers last season, and Uehara is currently on the trading block. Interestingly enough, the Texas Rangers are rumored to be interested in the LOOGY, provided they are able to deal Uehara. The Rangers are actually looking to trade Uehara, because they want to be able to re-sign Mike Gonzalez. In fact, the Athletics are getting closer to adding Uehara, which means that there is a huge chance that Gonzalez gets brought back. Consider the A’s to be basically out of the race, provided the deal ends up going through. By all indications at this point, the deal is almost certainly going to go through.

The reason for describing the former closer as a LOOGY is because of his propensity for killing similar-handed hitters. Looking at his career splits, it can be seen that Gonzalez’s career FIP of 2.78 against lefties is more favorable than his FIP of 3.68 against righties. He is not a tremendous liability against righties, but he is not the same pitcher he used to be and had a 5.59 FIP against right-handers last season. Mike Gonazlez is best utilized as a super-LOOGY, because he dominates lefties to the point where he can be a league-average reliever when facing only lefties.

Next year, Mike Gonzalez is projected to have a 3.50 ERA in about 54 innings, and his strikeout rate is expected to be back up to about 9.75 per nine innings. However, expect his walk rate to be around 3.90 in the same span of innings, because he does not have elite control by any means (steadily declining Zone%). A BABIP of around .300 is within reason, and expect him to give up his fair share of home runs. Gonzalez will probably surpass his career average of 0.75 HR/9 next season, because, again, he is no longer the same pitcher he was early on in his career.

Because of the Texas Rangers need for a lefty reliever, expect them to be the biggest contenders for Gonzalez. However, expect the San Diego Padres to make a run at Gonzalez, and the Houston Astros can offer one thing that the other teams interested in Gonzalez can’t; the opportunity to close. He will have to take a cheaper contract to sign with the ‘Stros, but this could be the chance for the 33-year-old to try and prove himself.

According to a simple Marcel system, Mike Gonzalez is projected to be worth 0.5 WAR next season if given 54 innings. He will probably be worth a little less than that if given too much time against right-handers, but he should be worth 0.5 WAR if he faces enough lefties. After all, this is the same guy who has a career 2.82 xFIP is against batters of the same hand.  He may rely on his slider too much, somewhat of a health risk, but that is a devastating pitch and is the main reason for his dominance against same-handed hitters. That pitch is just filthy. It’s no wonder why he generates a swinging strike about 11% of the time and allows hitters to make contact under 75% of the time.

With this 0.3-0.5 WAR projection in mind, Mike Gonzalez should be given a one-year deal worth $1 million with incentives that can make this deal worth $2 million. At 33, Gonzalez is the type of exalted specialist reliever who can only obtain a one-year deal, but he has the raw strikeout ability and skill to be given some performance incentives. $1 million is slightly under his market value, as is $2 million given his 0.5 WAR relative upside. However, Gonzalez is in a position where he will be paid under market value, because it is almost Spring Training, and he is basically a LOOGY reliever. Mike Gonzalez is overrated by some but underrating by more, and fans should appreciate him for what he is; a slightly above average reliever who can take down lefties with ease.

Mike Gonzalez is at least a league average reliever and can definitely be a solid piece for a Major League club, especially one looking for left-handed relievers (preferably a contender). Gonzalez has the ability to close for a poor team like the Astros, but it is a better decision for Gonzalez to take a little more money and sign with the Rangers. He will have more of a chance at going back to the World Series with the same team that took him there, and Gonzalez is better suited as an exotic LOOGY than a subpar closer. Mike Gonzalez and the Texas Rangers are a near-perfect match, especially as a Uehara deal seems imminent. Unless, of course, the Athletics are on his no-trade list.

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