The distance from the bullpen to the pitcher’s mound varies in every ballpark. It’s safe to say though, the jog is somewhere between 300 and 350 feet. Mariano Rivera has made that jog for the past 17 years. Now, like every year, with the sun beating down like it only does in Florida and Arizona this time of year, Rivera begins the year the same way he has his entire career. With spring training. He’s had years that begin like this and end in World Series championships, end in devastating fashion, or end without a play-off berth. Yet, he’s never had a year that begun as this one did.
Rivera is one of those rare athletes who seems to be forced towards the edge of retirement not by declining performance, but by the expectations of those around him. Pitchers who hit 40 years old don’t last. They’re on their last leg. People don’t want to see them hold on too long and fight through poor performances just for another year in the uniform. So people expect retirement around age 40. However, Mariano Rivera is not holding on. He’s not dangling from the ledge, his nails digging in for one last chance to be his former self. Instead, Rivera is just as good now as he was three years ago. But the whispers are there. He’s hinted at retirement after this season, but performance is not the reason.
If we use average fastball velocity as a measure of what a player has left in the tank, Rivera still has just about as much now as he did when he first started. Fangraphs tracks pitch velocity back to 2002. In 2002, Rivera’s fastball averaged 93.2 mph. Last season, his fastball averaged 92.3 mph. 0.9 mph differences do not equate to the end of a career. In fact the difference in velocity has had little affect on Rivera’s overall performance. In 2002, he had a swinging strike percentage of 11.3. Last season, his percentage dropped to 8.3. However, his overall K% was 25.6% last season as compared with 21.9% in 2002. He may not be missing the bat more with his pitches, but his pitch selection is deceptive enough to get the called strikes.
If we track Rivera by WAR, he had his 8th best season last year. In only seven other seasons was Rivera worth more than the 3.5 wins he provided the Yankees in 2011. As has been his norm the last decade plus, Rivera maintained a sub-2.00 ERA. The numbers are quite clear. Rivera is still as good as he has always been. But yet, there is talk every season lately with regard to when Rivera will call it quits.
Age is a number teams pay attention to when offering contracts. It’s not a determining factor to a player’s success. Of course, age certainly plays a role. As our bodies get older, they are unable to do the things they once did before. However, players are as good as the numbers they put up each year. By that measure, Rivera is as good as ever.
Long before Rivera was sending major league batters back to grab some pine, he was dominating high school ball in Panama as a shortstop. He even played on the Panama National Team as a shortstop before agreeing to try out pitching. The move was a smart one. According to a 2009 article by the Bleacher Report, Yankees scout Herb Raybourn saw Rivera pitch for Panama Oeste team.
"Even though Rivera was not a pitcher by trade, Raybourn noticed his smooth delivery and 85-87 MPH velocity. This forced the Yankees’ hand, and they signed Rivera to a deal with a $3,000 signing bonus."
It was a move that could be classified as one of the best in Yankees history. This happened in 1990. 22 years later, there is no question Rivera is the best closer of all-time. He is one of the best pitchers of all-time. And he is certainly one of the best Yankees of all-time. A 12-time All-Star, Rivera has challenged for a Cy Young award more times as a reliever than most starters can dream of. Of course, he never won one as the award is geared towards starters. Yet he did finish top-ten in Cy Young voting six times.
The kid out of Panama, destined to be a fisherman not a baseball player, has become one of the most recognizable faces in baseball history. He’s a lock for the Hall of Fame once he retires, but the question is when will that be?
Throat surgery this offseason surely has Rivera thinking about the future, and no one would fault him for calling it quits after 2012. But we are so quick to accept that he is ready for retirement. Judging by the age alone, Rivera seems a prime candidate for retirement. However, his numbers justify many more years in Yankees pinstripes.
For now, the thoughts of Rivera’s retirement are just that. They are thoughts and rumors and debates and questions. Rivera will pitch in 2012, his 18th big league season. He will close games and increase his all-time saves lead. He will do what other great closers have failed to do before him: stay successful into his 40’s. But retirement is coming sooner rather than later. It’s only a matter of time before we see Rivera make his last jog in from the bullpen to the pitcher’s mound.
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