2012 Player Projection: Dan Uggla
As of today, I am going to periodically do random 2012 projections for random players that pop into my head while I’m eating a bowl of cereal. The projections themselves are more scientific and based off of projections available on FanGraphs, since the people who formulate those projections are both smarter and have more time to do that kind of stuff than me. However, I will also take a look at the player’s 2011 numbers, and to a lesser extent, their career totals. First up, Dan Uggla of the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla is easily the most unorthodox 2B- of players who are actually good- that I have seen in the past decade. He can’t run or field, but he makes up for that with power. Uggla doesn’t generate many line-drives and hits more than his fair share of fliers, so his batting average suffers accordingly. Again, he makes up for that by working the count and drawing walks, although he bucked that trend last season with a .311 OBP that was well under his career average of .343 (BB% under 10% for first time since 2007).
So, on to the projections that can be found on FanGraphs. Except, as always, I have the Simple WAR Calculator to put a more advanced twist on the numbers. Below are those projections on the soon-to-be 32-year-old, under the assumption that his defense costs the team nine runs and his baserunning will set the Braves back a run.
Dan Uggla 2012 Projections
Steamer: 3.2 WAR, 122 wRC+
Bill James: 3.3 WAR, 124 wRC+
RotoChamp: 3.0 WAR, 121 wRC+
Marcel: 2.3 WAR, 116 wRC+
47 Fans: 3.2 WAR, 122 wRC+
ZiPS: 2.5 WAR, 116 wRC+
Well, it looks like all the criticism of Baseball Info Solutions’ (AKA Bill James) projections being unscientific are warranted when looking at the above projections. Dan Uggla was worth 2.5 WAR last season and 2.7 WAR in 2009, with that 4.9 WAR beauty of a season sandwiched in between. Marcel, thus, seems to be bearish on Uggla’s prospects for the 2012 season, and there might be something to their projection.
The average of those six projections yields a projected 2012 WAR of 2.9 and a wRC+ of 120, which is only slightly higher than last season’s total of 2.5 WAR. The object here is to find out where Uggla’s true value is, as it is somewhere between 2.3 and 3.3 WAR. Which means that one must find out whether Uggla truly declined last season or if he was experiencing regression.
First, the luck factor. Uggla’s BABIP was down big to a meager total of .253, and this contributed to a terrible .233 batting average. His projected BABIP next year is .285, which means that he will most likely have a .250 batting average next season. His 2011 numbers were pretty close to what he achieved in 2009, except they were a little bit worse. Dan Uggla suffered from poor luck last season, but don’t expect him to be worth 4 or even 3.5 WAR next season.
Dan Uggla has never been a player with a high LD%, and it’s usually around 17%. Last season, that total went down to 15.4% and contributed to a lower BABIP. This has little to do with getting worse and more to do with luck, because line drive rates fluctuate from year to year and contribute to statistical noise.
During each of the past three seasons, the Braves 2B has been chasing more pitches outside of the zone and whiffing more often than usual. The big problem is that declining players try to over-compensate by chasing more pitches and such.
Dan Uggla was a victim of poor luck last season, but he isn’t going to get any better in 2012 due to age and decline. Look for another decent, 2.5 WAR season from Uggla with his ceiling being a 3.5 WAR season. Uggla’s floor? A league-average, 2 WAR season seems reasonable for the Braves second baseman. He’s still a solid player, but he isn’t getting any younger and his OBP is feeling that pain. However, he has a better shot at being worth more than 2.5 WAR than under 2.5 WAR .
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