2012 MLB Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

2012 Season Outlook

The Angels enter 2012 once again hoping to compete with the Rangers, and this offseason may have given them the firepower to do just that. While the Marlins led the early-season buzz by signing Jose Reyes and Heath Bell, new Angels GM Jerry DiPoto grabbed the spotlight at the winter meetings by getting signing the best free agent pitcher and hitter on the market in Pujols and Wilson in just a matter of hours. Pujols provides a true centerpiece for an offense that had a lot of productive bats but no true offensive star. Wilson goes from being forced into ace duty in Texas, a role for which he didn’t quite have the ability, to sliding in behind Haren and Weaver as the best third starter in the AL. Wilson will also benefit from the slightly deflated scoring environment in Los Angeles, as compared to the bandbox that is the Ballpark in Arlington.

The offense looks like it will be much improved from the group that scored 667 runs in 2011, 10th in the AL. The introduction of Pujols obviously provides a big boon, although the player known as “The Machine” for his legendary consistency did have the first ‘down’ year of his career last season, as his 5.1 WAR represented a career low. However, that’s obviously relative, because he still led the Cardinals and finished among the top 30 most productive hitters for the season. I think Pujols will be back to the MVP candidate of the majority of his career, rather than simply All-Star level in 2011.

Also joining the lineup at some point in the season will be centerfielder Mike Trout, a consensus top-three prospect in all of baseball (along with Matt Moore and Bryce Harper) and a true five-tool stud with blessed with freakish athleticism. Matt Swartz (of Fangraphs) found that ZiPS projections were right on the most occasions using 2011 as his sample, so I’m relying on that system for my projections for the most part. ZiPS projects Trout to go .267/.338/.414, with 39 stolen bases and 15 home runs, which seems pretty reasonable if he’s able to get close to a full season of playing time. That lines up pretty closely with what Cameron Maybin put up last year, albeit Trout is projected for a splash more power, and Maybin just got a 5-year, $25M contract extension. The moon is the ceiling for Trout, so while the Angels could conceivably allow Trout to repeat as Minor League Player of the Year while Hunter and Wells man the outfield corners, that doesn’t seem like the best use of their available resources. Trout would obviously be first in line if an outfielder were to sustain an injury, but if this team is going to be in a playoff race, they need to be carding the best lineup they can every night, and I’m pretty sure Trout’s a part of that lineup.

Going into the offseason, both of the Angels’ highly underrated set of middle infielders were a year away from free agency. Howie Kendrick, who led the Angels with 5.8 WAR last season, parlayed his career year into a four-year extension that locks up his final arbitration season and his first three years of free agent eligibility for a total of $33.5M. Kendrick’s agent also represents his double-play partner, Erick Aybar, who also had a career year at 4.0 WAR. The Angels agreed with Aybar on a salary to avoid arbitration for 2012 but thus far have made little progress on a long-term deal. If they don’t get Aybar signed, they may hand the reins to their second-ranked prospect, Jean Segura. Although Segura played most of 2011 at High A, his progress has been impeded by injury issues. If he’s able to stay healthy, the Angels could try to move him to the majors quickly and he could have impact as a rookie in 2013.

When Jerry DiPoto was brought in to Los Angeles, he said one of his first goals was to improve the team’s on-base percentage from several positions, one of  which was catcher. He quickly fulfilled that promise by flipping former backstop Jeff Mathis, one of the worst everyday position players in baseball last year, and sending rookie starter Tyler Chatwood to the Rockies for catcher Chris Iannetta. Mathis, who is below the Mendoza Line for his career at .194, hit .225 last season as the team’s regular catcher, so if Iannetta can repeat his .370 mark from 2011 he would get on base about 80 times more over the course of the year than Mathis did last season.

There are reasons to expect improvements in the team’s run prevention as well. Obviously, the addition of Wilson gives the team three premiere starters and sets them up well for a potential playoff series. Those starters will be more effective because the team’s overall defense is likely to take a leap forward. Last year, they were collectively one of the best defenses in baseball, at 44.6 UZR, second only to the Rays in the AL. In 2012, they could reasonably field the best defense overall with the addition of two-time gold glove winner Pujols and Trout, whose 80-grade speed makes him a spectacular defensive outfielder. Finally, while Chatwood was effective as the team’s fifth starter last season, top mound prospect Garrett Richards seems likely to take on those duties at some point in 2012, and Richards’ high-caliber stuff blows away Chatwood’s deceptive mechanics, especially in terms of the likelihood that it’ll continue to work as teams face him multiple times over the course of the season.

Dipoto went cheap on the bullpen, as most of the stats-minded organizations have been over the last several offseasons. Other than Hawkins, the team will basically return the same bullpen, and overall I’d expect they’ll do fine. With the team’s exceptional rotation, their depth is unlikely to be tested as extensively, so the relief corps should be effective if not outstanding.

Overall, I still believe the Rangers are likely to finish ahead of the Angels, but in his first offseason Los Angeles GM Jerry DiPoto took some major steps to close that gap. I see the Angels as a prime contender for the second Wild Card slot, although they’ll push the Rangers throughout the course of the season.

2012 Prospect to Watch

Although the obvious choice is Trout, that’s simply too easy. He’s an otherworldly prospect, and although his 2012 impact may be limited by potential role it won’t be long before his speed and power begin showing up in the box score. Segura’s the prospect to watch in this system because he’s got the chance to move very quickly if he can prove he’s finally past his injury issues. Although he’s got below-average range at short, his arm grades out as plus, giving him a chance to stick at the position for at least a few years before he’ll likely have to be moved elsewhere. Segura’s put up a combined .316/.370/.449 over parts of 5 seasons in the Minors, but collected only 1166 total plate appearances because of injuries. For Segura, 22, it’s time to put up or shut up.

Questions or comments are welcome in 140 characters or less @saberbythebay.

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