2012 MLB Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

  2012 Season Outlook

The Giants enter their second consecutive season after an offseason in which they were really expected them to do more. Considered a player for the big shortstops on the market this offseason, including Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, the team watched as each signed elsewhere and will instead go with Crawford. The front office was handicapped by a 10-man arbitration class that will earn a total of $41.2, $24.2 of which represents the first-year salary for extensions signed for arb-eligibles Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval, and Ryan Vogelsong.

The lineup will feature two new faces in the outfield in Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera. Pagan’s a downgrade defensively in center from Torres, but he makes up for that gap by bringing a slightly bigger bat than Torres to the lineup, according to both their career numbers and 2012 ZiPS projections. Pagan’s got a slightly more sustained track record, as well, but both are coming off down years, so this trade could come down to which player is more likely to bounce back. It’s possible neither will, in which case, the Giants got the short end of the stick in throwing in a solid bullpen arm in Ramirez as a kicker.

Meanwhile, Cabrera was the product of a sell-low effort on Sanchez, after the lefty had a brutal 2011. The Royals, meanwhile, may have sold high on Cabrera, who had a career year at 4.2 WAR last season, more than twice his previous career best. The Giants will hope Cabrera’s 2011 was more breakout and less blip on the radar.

After campaigns decimated by injury, the core of the team’s lineup will be back in Sandoval and Posey. Reports from Spring Training suggest Posey’s fully recovered from his gruesome fracture. Meanwhile, Sandoval’s finally 100% back from his wrist surgery, as well as the shoulder strain that limited him in 2011. If the Giants hope to field a lineup with any sort of pop, Buster and the Panda must be effective and avoid anything more than the standard nicks and cuts of a 162+ game season.

Although Huff still has a year left on his contract, I’d be surprised if Belt doesn’t get the majority of starts at first. He’ll likely hit fifth, behind Posey and Sandoval, and a solid offensive year for the team would probably require Belt taking a step forward, as well. Belt, 23, showed he probably doesn’t need any more development when he hit .309/.448/.527 in his 49 Triple-A games in 2011. The Pacific Coast League, the home of San Francisco’s Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies, is a notoriously inflated run-scoring environment, but Belt’s big numbers are simply a continuation of his domination of the minors that has led to a ridiculous .343/.457/.596 line in two professional seasons between three different levels. Belt’s ready to be the team’s best option at first, and I wouldn’t expect Huff to come close to challenging that fact this season.

The team’s lineup fills out with a trio of light-hitting defensive specialists. Freddy Sanchez, the team’s notoriously brittle second baseman, has been serviceable when he’s been able to stay on the field. Unfortunately, that’s been no small feat, as Sanchez lost 98 games last year to a right shoulder dislocation, after missing the first 54 games of 2010 recovering from surgery to his other shoulder. Schierholtz, a fan favorite, is known for his explosive arm and deft glovework in the expansive right-centerfield gap at AT&T Park, called Triples Alley. While Schierholtz’s exceptional defense is certainly nothing to scoff at, the point remains that as a corner outfielder, he’s expected to produce with the bat as well. His .278/.326/.430 was a step forward from his first two full seasons, but he’ll need to continue that positive trend to avoid being the odd man out in a crowded outfield. Finally, Brandon Crawford will hit eighth, and while his defense was essentially MLB-ready when he was called up in 2011, his bat was anything but. He hasn’t exactly set fire to the minors, either, so if Crawford’s bat isn’t up to the task of developing against, it could be a frustrating year for the youngster.

The team’s rotation will remain intact from 2011, but it’s tough to say how long that’ll continue. This offseason, the team signed Lincecum to a deal that provides cost-certainty over his last two years of arbitration eligibility, but does not extend the team’s control past the original arbitration period. Negotiations have begun to lock up Matt Cain, a free agent after 2011, but so far the sides haven’t reached an agreement. Although it’s not impossible to imagine either Lincecum or Cain, Giants’ draftees and products of the team’s farm system, taking a slight hometown discount, both pitchers would easily surpass at total commitment of $100M on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine the team carrying more than a third of their salary in two starters. Behind Lincecum and Cain will be the latest exceptional young arm to come out of the team’s system, Madison Bumgarner, who will hope to take another step forward in his development after an excellent 2011. Vogelsong’s two-year extension takes some pressure off the longtime journeyman, but asking him to repeat his career 2011 (after five years removed from the Majors) may be too tall a task. At this point, the $19 and $20M on Barry Zito’s contract for 2012 and 13, as well as his $7M buyout on his 2014 option, are basically a sunk cost, but the team will look to recoup some value by continuing to trot out the big lefty every fifth day. Should injury strike or the team decide to pull the plug on Zito, Surkamp remains the likely replacement.

Other than the removal of Ramirez, the Giants’ bullpen looks very similar to 2011, as Wilson, Romo, Lopez, and Affeldt will all remain and likely combine to handle the majority of high-leverage duty. Mota and Casilla will return at the front of the pen, and will combine with free agent signing Clay Hensley to cover most of the mop-up duty.

Overall, the team’s much-improved from 2011, especially if the key parts of the lineup that can avoid the injuries that ultimately ruined their chances of a repeat. However, while they won’t repeat as the worst offensive team in the NL (Houston, come on down!), I think it’s unlikely that they took enough steps to overtake the Diamondbacks. Arizona’s a much younger team, so a year of maturation will likely pay more dividends for the Snakes than it will for San Francisco, and Arizona’s acquisition of Trevor Cahill provides another effective starter for a rotation that isn’t that far behind that of the Giants. The Giants will compete for the two NL Wild-Card slots, but in the end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall to the hellishly competitive NL East and miss the playoffs altogether. For San Francisco to contend, they need some combination of otherworldly production from Lincecum and Cain, an improved lineup led by Sandoval and Posey, and some bad breaks for Arizona. Ultimately, that’s a lot to ask for.

2012 Prospect to Watch

The Giants don’t have a positional prospect ready to make a big impact in the Majors in 2012, but their 2011 first-round pick will be a huge part of the team’s future and could force his way through the system quickly with a good season. Joe Panik, a shortstop taken out of St. John’s with the 29th overall selection, signed quickly and got out on the field, a stark contrast to the many draftees who wait until minutes before the August 15th deadline. Panik took advantage, logging 270 professional at-bats, while many of his peers will not see their first professional games until the 2012 season opens. He took the short-season Northwest League by storm, hitting .341 and showing impressive plate discipline on the way to winning league MVP honors. Although Panik’s arm may prevent him from being effective at shortstop in the big leagues, he has the range and hands for either middle infield position. If Panik’s bat can continue to carry him this season, he could earn a promotion and conceivably end the year at Double-A, setting himself up for a possible jump to the majors when the team’s second base position opens up next year after Freddy Sanchez moves on.

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