2012 MLB Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
2011 Tampa Bay Rays Season Recap
Evan Longoria and Dan Johnson are heroes, the Tampa Bay Rays must thank the Yankees for losing, and the Rays must also thank the Boston Red Sox for helping to complete 50% of the collapse. The other 50% was the rise of the Rays to take the Wild Card spot from the Red Sox and end up in the MLB playoffs. They were bounced out by the Texas Rangers, who would go on to lose in one of the greatest World Series showdowns of all-time, but the final day of the regular season made this another magical season for fans of the Tampa Bay Rays. More magic will be in store in 2012 for the Rays.
Ben Zobrist– This guy has to be the most underrated player in baseball, because we always talk about how underrated he is, and he still never gets the proper credit. How much was he worth last season? 6.6 WAR. That’s only the highest total on the Tampa Bay Rays, and it was due to a combination of great hitting (131 wRC+), amazing defense (10.2 UZR), and solid base-running. His added positional versatility makes him one of the best players in baseball, even if people aren’t willing to admit it.
Evan Longoria– The franchise 3B tore it up last season with another 6 WAR year in just 133 games of baseball. He had a 134 wRC+ and was knocking home runs like it was nothing. To Longoria, it doesn’t seem like much. He’s arguably the best third baseman in baseball, and he has the defense to prove his value (another 10 UZR guy). Longoria is obviously a terrific player, and he and Zobrist are an incredible duo to possess.
B.J. Upton– Finally, a big year came for Justin’s brother in 2011. He ended up with 36 steals to lead the team, and Upton also added some decent defense in a 4.1 WAR year. He drew some walks, hit some homers, and ended up with a solid 115 wRC+ that does wonders when playing in center field. He has finally blossomed into one of the better CFs in baseball, and I can’t wait to see what he can achieve in the future.
James Shields– Big Game James was certainly at his best last season in a near-5 WAR campaign for the veteran starter. Shields ended up with a 2.82 ERA, although he did have a lucky .258 BABIP. Even so, he ended with a 3.42 FIP (3.25 xFIP due to an unlucky 11.1 HR/FB%) and once again had very good peripherals. I hope the Rays don’t trade him, because he was one of just two starters on the team worth more than two wins last season. Want to guess who the other pitcher was?
David Price– Had a higher strikeout rate than James Shields, but he was worth slightly less than his teammate (4.7 WAR) and his FIP and xFIP (3.32) were exactly the same. He will best Shields next season and is my pick for the AL Cy Young in 2012.
Tampa Bay Rays Offseason Additions
1B Carlos Pena– A sweet reunification, and the Rays have their powerful, middle-of-the-order guy back. You can view my original analysis on the deal here.
OF Luke Scott– The streak former Orioles hitter joined the Rays on a one-year deal.
RP Fernando Rodney– The former closer is looking to get back on the map, and he has landed in the right spot.
C Jose Molina– The pitch-plating wizard joined the Tampa Bay Rays to replace John Jaso from the Josh Lueke trade.
RP Josh Lueke– A worthy-risk, the hit-or-miss reliever was acquired in a trade with the Seattle Mariners.
2B Jeff Keppinger– Another solid middle-infielder who will have an impact for the Rays next year.
1B Juan Miranda– The former Yankees player looks like a mere afterthought at this point, but you never know with those Rays.
RP Burke Badenhop– He’s better than C Jake Jeffries
Tampa Bay Rays Offseason Subtractions
C John Jaso– The OBP whiz and famed beneficiary of Joe Maddon’s tactics was shipped for Lueke (analysis on Lueke’s description).
1B Russ Canzler– The powerful, interesting youngster became expendable after the Pena deal and was shipped to Cleveland for cash.
OF Johnny Damon– That’s one veteran OF that this team can definitely do without. After all, Scott is definitely better than Damon and can actually hit for power; something the Rays coveted. I mean, it is left field.
1B Casey Kotchman– The Rays sapped out all that lady luck would give to them and replaced Kotch with Pena.
C Kelly Shoppach– He was a solid depth catcher with plus power.
Juan Cruz– The Rays will sort of miss him, but Lueke and Rodney are definitely better.
Andy Sonnanstine– A classy guy, but was expendable and didn’t have much value to the team anymore. Signed with the Cubs.
The following projections were submitted to me by the great Robbie Knopf of Rays Colored Glasses.
Tampa Bay Rays Projected Line-up
CF B.J. Upton
1B Carlos Pena
2B Ben Zobrist
DH Luke Scott
RF Matt Joyce
C Jose Molina/Jose Lobaton/Chris Gimenez
SS Reid Brignac/Sean Rodriguez
Tampa Bay Rays Projected Rotation
Tampa Bay Rays Projected Bullpen
SU Joel Peralta
LOOGY Jake McGee
MR Burke Badenhop (read this)
LMR J.P. Howell
Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Season Outlook
The Rays had a productive offseason, as they added a couple of quality relievers to add to their bullpen, including a new set-up man in Fernando Rodney. Carlos Pena is the best- and first legitimate- first baseman on the Rays since, well, Carlos Pena. By the way, it sounds better to use his full name than just “Carlos” or “Pena”, kind of like nobody says “Paul” instead of “Chris Paul”. It might just be because of that weird alien movie by the same name.
If you believe the recent study by Mike Fast, then you will be one of the few fans applauding the deal given to Jose Molina; the sneakiest and greatest catcher at plating pitches (the forgotten art in baseball). Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson are poised for huge years, with both of them ready to make their marks as to of the best young pitchers in baseball. A common theme with the Rays is what they should do with their surplus starting pitching, but the Rays are wise enough to stick with what they have. Wade Davis isn’t expendable yet, and Jeff Niemann still has a high amount of value to this team until Alex Cobb proves that he is ready to get a place in the rotation.
The offense is infinitely better with the athletic Desmond Jennings at the top of the order, and the team has a real DH in former Oriole Luke Scott. The powerful Scott is known for his hot streaks, and he shows Marshawn Lynch what beast mode really is when he goes into those grooves. You can pencil him in for 20 homers, and the projection systems are far too harsh and value him at 1-1.5 WAR when he is truly worth 1.5-2 WAR. It will be interesting, and vital, to see if Scott can replicate his success in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and bounce back from a terrible, replacement-level 2011 campaign.
The best and biggest addition to the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason has to be Carlos Pena, because the Rays now have a second bona fide power threat- Scott hardly qualifies as such anyway, even though he was also an offseason acquisition- who makes up for a terrible batting average with an insane amount of walks. He is projected to be worth 2.5 WAR with a .353 OBP and 28 home runs in 2012.
It’s too bad that there is a second Wild Card now, because I was looking forward to watching the Rays knock off the Red Sox for the WC spot behind the Yankees. The Rays will battle the Yankees for the top spot in the AL East, but they will ultimately fall short against a Yankees team that will have a much better rotation in 2012. The Rays rotation is easily the best in the division and arguably the best in the AL. Right now, the Rays are the second best team in the division and are clearly better than the Red Sox. Their rotation is significantly better than Boston’s, and it’s enough to make up for a slightly worse offensive attack and bullpen. The Rays do a much better job of managing their resources and line-up than the Red Sox as well, and their offense is certainly formidable. Their first seven hitters are above-average, with Zobrist, Longoria, and Upton among the better players at their positions. Zobrist and Longoria are two enviable hitters, with Longoria being one of the biggest stars in the game and Zobrist among the most underrated in the game and a star in his own right. Pencil this team in for 95 wins and a second place finish behind the Yanks.
2012 Tampa Bay Rays Prospect to Watch
I had the chance to ask this question to Rays Colored Glasses staff writer Robbie Knopf, and below is his detailed response.
The prospect I keep talking about at RCG is 26-year-old outfielder Brandon Guyer. Guyer impressed observers with a two-run home run in his first major league plate appearance in 2011 along with excellent defense in right field, and he was very impressive for a sustained period of time at Triple-A Durham, posting a .312/.384/.521 line. Guyer has been absolutely horrendous thus far in spring training, but it’s not anything other than that his timing is a little off and he’s somewhat rusty. Hopefully that will begin to change soon. Guyer has 25 homer power, 25 steal speed, and although he isn’t a player who really sprays line drives all over the field, he hits the ball hard to the outfield and should be a player who could hit in the .275-.285 range. Guyer is a Gold Glove candidate in right field and in typical Rays fashion, always hustles. Guyer, a right-handed hitter, will get a sustained big league opportunity if the Rays have an injury to one of their starting outfielders or if Matt Joyce continues to falter against lefties and Keppinger isn’t good enough himself. Guyer was a late bloomer, not breaking out until 2010 in the Cubs organization, but he has intriguing tools and he could make a play for a starting outfield spot by 2012 with B.J. Upton departing via free agency.
The last bit is especially interesting, because one of the main motives for the Jason Keppinger deal was to give Matt Joyce a platoon partner against lefties. From what I’ve seen on Brandon Guyer, this is definitely a guy to watch for, because he does play terrific defense in right field. Like Desmond Jennings, Guyer is a 20/20 guy who has the potential to notch 30/30 with his mix of speed and power. Guyer will most likely make his debut later in the year, and it is surprising to see ZiPS project him as a .314 wOBA guy if given 544 plate appearances. The Bill James projection system, always high on youngsters, has him as a .343 wOBA hitter in 212 PAs.
I see Brandon Guyer as a 15 home run guy with 20 steals and a .330 wOBA (.320 OBP) next season for the Rays if he receives 300-400 plate appearances. Combine that with some of the best defense that you’re going to see in RF, and you get a slightly underrated outfielder who will make a name for himself. And to think he was a late bloomer. Jennings, Cobb, Moore, and Hellickson are the youngsters with the most weight to their names, but don’t sleep on Brandon Guyer. He’s a Tampa Bay Rays prospect to watch for. He should be the fourth outfielder right away, because he has already proven himself as a masher against lefties and a hustle guy who saps everything out of his ability. Guyer is a player the type of player everyone loves rooting for, and he is definitely ready to make an impact in the Majors.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook.
Follow Joe Soriano on Twitter here, and be sure to check out Rays Colored Glasses for everything about the Rays.