2012 MLB Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

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2011 Season Review

September 30, 2007

I watch Brett Myers toss his glove into the air in celebration as the Phillies send the stupid Mets home with nothing. I rush home on the Broad Street line to my apartment near Temple campus and watch highlights of the game while playing “We Could Be Heroes” by the Wallflowers on repeat. When my roommates come home and ask me why I’m crying I tell them that a stray dog had come at me on my way home and I was forced to kill it with my bare hands.

They do not believe me.

October 29, 2008

My then-girlfriend yells at me amidst the post-World Series riots for reaching for the twelve pack in her hands instead of saying hello to her as we meet up in Center City. Moments later, a man is struck in the head with a glass bottle while trying to climb a traffic light. Everyone takes a moment to reflect on why any of this has anything to do with baseball and then we all casually flip over a news van.

November 4, 2009

Distraught after watching the Yankees win the World Series, I demand the server at St. Stephen’s Green bring me “…one of those quesadillas filled with mashed potatoes.” Outside, several of my cohorts hatch a plan to drive to New York and burn down Yankee Stadium. They get as far as Front Street before changing the plan so that it includes everyone going home and going to sleep.

October 23, 2010

I sit in a bar in Sacramento, CA as Ryan Howard hits a game-winning home run to send the Phillies to their third straight World Series. I am awoken minutes later by my friends, who inform me that I have been convulsing and bleeding my nose for 20 minutes as jubilant Giants fans dance around me, celebrating Ryan’s called third strike to end the NLCS.

October 7, 2011

I watch Game Five of the NLDS with no audio on an airplane somewhere between California and Pennsylvania. Raul Ibanez misses a lead-taking home run by two inches and I stifle a yelp of despair so unsuccessfully the air marshal grips his taser lightly. The rest of the game is like being smothered to death by the Phillies offense.

When my brother-in-law picks me up at the airport, he asks how my flight was. I punch him in the face.

So you see, the Phillies have been working through a slowly dropping higher standard of success, in a city so unfamiliar with the concept that it will literally rip itself apart upon the achievement of said success.

Which begs the question. Do we really want these aging champions to dive once more through the closing window of opportunity?

Yes. Yes we do. And we are willing to flip over any number of news vans to prove it.

Offseason Subtractions

RHP Roy Oswalt, RHP Brad Lidge, RHP Ryan Madson, OF Ben Francisco, OF/1B Ross Gload, IF Wilson Valdez

Offseason Additions

DH Jim Thome, RHP Jonathan Papelbon, RHP Chad Qualls, OF Laynce Nix, OF/IF Ty Wigginton

Projected Lineup

What you’ll notice here is that the second baseman is batting last, and oh yeah, the second baseman is Chase Utley. Also Ty Wigginton is in there somewhere. Also Hunter Pence is hitting in place of Ryan Howard, rather than in front of Ryan Howard, who should maybe return in May if he feels like it. Frequently injured and often in his late 30s Placido Polanco is hitting second, and as of the middle of Spring Training, second base will be manned, again, by an unproven rookie.

“Wow, it’s really charitable of sportswriters to say the window of opportunity is closing and not already slammed shut,” you’re saying. Well… you could argue that’s true. But what the Phillies have done in the last five years has been amidst a sea of injuries before. Their penchant for filling in background roles with minor, yet critical defense, relief pitching, or… sometimes.. clutch hitting has allowed them to survive.

Meanwhile, Jim Thome will try to play first base too. You can see in his face how seamlessly he has transitioned back onto the field since his last stint several years ago.

Projected Rotation

And this is the part that no one is afraid to talk about. Yes, Roy Oswalt is no longer a part of this rotation. But that leaves it with a surprisingly satisfying number of aces. There’s already so much out there about Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, all you need to know is that 1.) They are great 2.) They want (in some cases more) rings 3.) We love them. The real pressure is on Vance Worley, to maintain equal levels of quirkiness and talent, and Joe Blanton, to be something other than an injury or the butt of jokes about cheeseburgers.

2012 Season Outlook

The division is better. The Phillies are older. But the playoffs are bigger! But the Phillies are more injured-er.

The everlasting faith in the Phillies comes from their pitching. Any day, an ace or capable back end can hand the ball off to a strong bullpen arm or a solid long reliever. Then, there’s Jonathan Papelbon to seal the deal. The Phils have built a solid wall between themselves and the opposing offense.

But we are years removed from the AL lineup in an NL division that won the World Series; and now we’re also years away from the first time we pointed out they had become a “pitching first” team. The question is, can the Phillies survive going from a “pitching first” team to a “pitching only” team?

No. Because no one could do that. The 2011 NLDS may serve as an echoing reminder of the extremely simple notion, once screamed at me by a little league coach in front of my grandparents after a record-shattering sixth strikeout of the day:

“WE NEED RUNS TO WIN THE GAME. Oh god my wife left me for the guy who delivered our refrigerator.”

–that coach I just mentioned

The runs had been dwindling already, and now we can subtract Ryan Howard and Chase Utley from the lineup for an amount of time that directly correlates to whatever lie is currently coming out of Ruben Amaro’s mouth. Placido Polanco is now 36 and trotting off the field with an injury more and more frequently.

Hunter Pence will be called upon to have the April-May of his career, supported by amiable efforts from the thankfully re-signed Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. Other than that, the Phillies are depending on positive follow-ups from promising young players and continued pulses from veteran journeymen.

Does this translate into a sixth straight NL East division flag? Yeah,possibly. There are still good players on this team. They are still competitive and they continue to cultivate an environment of winning. People seem genuinely afraid to disappoint guys like Halladay and Utley, making guys taking on minor but critical roles thrive in ways they may not have elsewhere. They relied heavily on pitching last year and won enough to set a franchise record.

There’s not quite the makeup for a similar performance, but the Phillies still have the talent and drive necessary to watch their city burn.

2012 Prospect to Watch

I’d like to say a wide variety of players, but they all play in the Astros’ farm system now. So what I’ll say is Freddy Galvis, because you’re not going to have much choice but to watch him, as he’s the Opening Day second baseman.

Which is a scenario with the potential to start something special. There are concerns about Galvis’ development not being quite “there” just yet, but he is coming off his best season yet. His .278/.324/.392 with 8 HR, 43 RBI, 78 Runs, and 23 SB in 137 games, in addition to his acrobatic defense, was enough to get him the 2011 Paul Owens Award for top position player in the farm system.

Obviously you want Chase Utley out there, and obviously you want him to stay in his prime forever. But there is a spark of excitement in watching a young prospect get his shot, and it provides us with a youthful narrative thread dangling from this aging core. That is still great.

Find your team’s 2012 season preview or when it will be published here.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook. You can also subscribe to our RSS feed.

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