2012 MLB Predictions: Why Teams Will (and Will Not) Win the World Series

Earlier today we released our individual picks for the 2012 season, offering our predictions on who would win divisions, wild-card spots and even postseason awards.  Now, after reaching a consensus on who the 10 teams to make the postseason will be, we’re telling you why each potential contender will and won’t claim the 2012 World Series title.

National League East – Philadelphia Phillies – Justin Klugh

• Why the Phillies Will Win the World Series

Let’s skip the starting rotation.  You know them by now.  They’re the three guys who shot you menacing glares all last spring from the covers of sports magazines.

Let’s skip the offense.  Sure, it’s minus two keys in Utley and Howard.  But there’s a collection of young upstarts and seasoned boppers to give a rotation like ours enough support to .  Go ahead, let Thome ding you for a solo shot.  Go ahead, shrug when Freddy Galvis bunts Victorino to third.  Juan Pierre’s pop up will drift deep enough for him to score.  Go ahead, give Doc or Cliff or Cole a run or two to work with. Hell, give it to Vance.  He knows what to do with it.

Let’s skip the injuries.  The Phillies are not a team whose spent the last five years immune to sickness and disease.  Everything from tendinitis to family tragedies to nature’s wrath have taken Phillies from us, and here we are with five flags flying over The Bank.  It’s not always your Princes and Pujols who make the biggest impact.  Sometimes it’s your backup middle infielder coming in to pitch the 19th, or your pinch runner with the .092 BA being quick enough to steal third on a passed ball.

Let’s just think about it this way.  The Phillies have not been a perfect baseball team since 2007.  In fact, at some points, they’ve been downright Metropolitan.  But they have cultivated an environment so dedicated and focused on winning, that guys want to come here, that guys choose to come here.  Don’t forget, there are still good baseball players on this team.  Whether their methods are to chip away at a seemingly insurmountable lead, or simply burn through the calendar without ever relinquishing first place, the Phillies know how to use what they have and channel it into a W.  And in the past five years, we’ve seen a variety of Phillies teams, some better than others, win. 

But, yeah.  That rotation’s not half bad, either.

• Why the Phillies Will Not Win the World Series

It’s a sad thing, hope.

We all start the season with it.  And in the end, most of us feel foolish for having it.

Here we all are, inwardly wondering if this is the last good year or the first bad year.  Beat writers shuffle and whisper varying responses, usually publishing headlines that merely go against the most recent trend to hoard page views.  Bandwagon fans shrug and wait for an excuse to day-drink; this time it’s baseball.  Of course the Phillies will be okay, they think.  When have the Phillies ever been bad?

Meanwhile, there’s us… those who know better.  Those who find no eagerness to return to cold, rainy Octobers with no significance outside of the cold and the rain.

What are we thinking?

It’s hard to see this as an exciting team ready to explode out of the gate.  Our big non-pitching acquisitions were mostly 30+ space-fillers.  Go ahead and tell me “good pitching beats good hitting.”  You know what good hitting beats?  No hitting.

There is no such thing as an all-pitching team, but the Phillies have clawed their way to end of the spectrum.  Runs will need to be manufactured, not produced.  Hits will need to be capitalized, not squandered.  And players are going to have to be the players they’re supposed to be.  It’s a lot to ask of anybody, let alone a group of increasingly aged, increasingly injured, increasingly decreasing players who may not be as motivated as they were when they could get hit by a pitch or slide headfirst without spraining or ripping or fracturing some vital part of their anatomy.  There’s potential, sure.  They even sprinkled in a smattering of youth.  And in the end, that potential is what we pin our hopes to in a division more competitive than ever.

But what’s potential if not a fancy word for “hope?”

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National League Central – Cincinnati Reds – Lew Freedman

• Why the Reds Will Win the World Series

This team is constructed to win now. General Manager Walt Jocketty worked overtime in the off-season filling holes, adding to the pitching staff, and shoring up all spots that were weak during a disappointing 2011. The Reds have an excellent, run-producing, day-to-day lineup. That wasn’t the problem last year. Starting pitchers alternated between letting the club down and going on the disabled list. But the rotation now appears rock solid and the bullpen has been improved. The wild card problem that weakens the equation was the late spring training elbow injury that knocked out closer Ryan Madson.

First baseman Joey Votto, the league MVP in 2010, is definitely one of the best players in the league. The guys who have been around, like All-Star Brandon Phillips, are hungry to bring Cincinnati its first World Series crown since 1990, and if things break the right way it is not an impossible dream.

• Why the Reds Will Not Win the World Series

From the external side the Philadelphia Phillies are going to be hard to beat. The Phillies will be the National League favorites and did not sit around in the off-season idly. The Reds have all of the ingredients for success under first-rate manager Dusty Baker, but the loss of Madson for the season was a huge blow that leaves the bullpen as one big ?. If Madson can’t close, who can? There is no ready answer. Health could be an issue, too. Third baseman Scott Rolen seems to have trouble holding his body together for a whole season, so anything can happen on that front.

Flame throwing Cuban Aroldis Chapman is a guy who could be part of the solution or part of the problem. He wows fans with his 100 mph heater, but it’s not known if he can deliver consistently as a closer, middle reliever, or starter. The Reds are starting youngster Zach Cozart at short and he has to prove himself over a full season. Drew Stubbs brings a lot to the table, but striking out 200 times a year as he did last year, is unacceptable.

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National League West – Arizona Diamondbacks – Justin Hunter

• Why the Diamondbacks Will Win the World Series

The Diamondbacks are like a successful college basketball team that returns all their players.  Those teams are immediately the highest ranked and have the most expectations.  I won’t go as far as to say the Diamondbacks have the highest expectations in baseball, but they probably have the highest expectations in the National League.  After a 94-win season, with their entire core returning, there’s truly no reason to think they are long-shots at winning the World Series.

Justin Upton is a MVP candidate once again now that he’s finally put all his tools together.  Ian Kennedy may not win 20 games again, but his peripheral numbers should help the club win a lot of games.  Daniel Hudson and Trevor Bauer will add some nice depth to the rotation.  Both are young, talented pitchers.  While the Diamondbacks surely have the offense to get the job done, pitching will do them well in the pitcher-friendly division of the N.L. West.

• Why the Diamondbacks Will Not Win the World Series

The first strike against Arizona is the league in which they play.  The National League, at least on paper, is inferior to the American League.  Normally that can be said offensively, but this season it can be said both offensively and from a pitching standpoint.  Obviously, the Cardinals last year proved that anyone can win as long as they get hot at the right time.

The Diamondbacks had a much better bullpen last year than they did in 2010, and that will continue this year.  However, the bullpen may be the weakest link for the team.  Starting pitching will only get them so far, the bullpen will have to maintain leads.

Finally, most teams that made the postseason last year worked to get better.  Aside from the Brewers and the Cardinals, most were successful.  The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, did not get worse, but they didn’t really get better.  They mostly stayed the same.  This fact could be cause for concern since they lost in five games in the Division Series last year.

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National League Wild-Card – St. Louis Cardinals – Chris Carelli

• Why the Cardinals Will Win the World Series –

The St. Louis Cardinals will win the World Series this season because of their depth. Many teams would not be able to withstand the loss of one of their top pitchers and remain a top competitor. The Cardinals were able to do this last season when they lost Adam Wainwright for the entire season. This year they will start without Chris Carpenter. With Wainwright back and looking good, it is a swap and Carpenter has not been written off for the season. The Cards moved Lance Lynn to the rotation, and while not Carpenter, he is capable of providing quality innings. Jake Westbrook is in great physical condition and looked strong in Spring Training. Kyle Lohse was their the most consistent of the rotation last year and should provide the same quality starts in 2012. Jaime Garcia is in his third full season and is ready to breakout.

The depth continues on the bench. Even with Skip Schumaker and Allen Craig set to start the season on the DL, the Redbirds have a productive bench. The falloff from starter to bench is much better than most clubs. The players are also very versatile. Daniel Descalso has shown he play all the infield positions. Matt Carpenter can play the corner infield and corner outfield slots.

The loss of Albert Pujols was offset by the signing of Carlos Beltran. As such the team is looking to generate more runs this season via the running game. There is still plenty of power with Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. David Freese showed in the postseason last year that he can hit homers in bunches. The Cardinals also get run production out of their catcher Yadier Molina, widely acknowledged as the best catcher in the game.

• Why the Cardinals Will Not Win the World Series

The Cardinals will not win the World Series this season for a few reasons. One, despite their depth, they’ll have too many injuries at the same time. The team is on the older side in spots and some players have fought injuries the last couple seasons. Rafael Furcal is tops on this list. He has been on the DL each of the last three seasons and he had his worst season on the field last year. He is off to a rough start this spring. He looks like a player lost at the plate. Beltran is also a player that seems to fight injuries each season. David Freese has yet to play a full season. The team is already under the gun with Chris Carpenter, Craig and Schumaker on the DL to start the season.

Second, while Wainwright looks good, he is just coming off Tommy John surgery. Can he throw 200 innings as may be required now that Carpenter is missing time? Will Jaime Garcia take the next step? He needs to work deeper in games in order to give the bullpen rest. Lohse and Westbrook do not generally pitch deeper than the sixth and that’s also what we can expect from Lynn.

That leads into another issue. The bullpen is young and they could get overtaxed because of the minimal innings the starters can provide.

Lastly, performance from the upstarts of 2011, like Lance Berkman and Molina could take a slide back. The Cardinals need second baseman Tyler Greene to show he can produce at the same level in the majors as he has in the minors. In three seasons he has yet to do so.

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American League East – New York Yankees – Blaine Blontz

• Why the Yankees Will Win the World Series

Last season, the New York Yankees tallied the second most wins in the majors in spite of their pitching.  While their bullpen was exceptional, New York’s starting staff was league average at best.  Yankees starters finished the 2011 season ranked 14^th in ERA (4.03) and innings pitched, and opposing hitters mustered an OPS of .741 against them.

This season, the Yankees are poised to win a comparable number of games thanks in part to their pitching staff.  General manager Brian Cashman said he wanted to avoid walking the tight rope this season.  He’s seemed to accomplish this, at least to start the season, by adding several high-profile arms to his team’s arsenal.  New York re-signed Freddy Garcia, acquired Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda, and lured Andy Pettitte out of retirement.

Oh, and the Yankees are fielding much of the same offense that finished first in the majors in home runs (222), second in runs scored, and third in OPS (.788)

• Why the Yankees Will Not Win the World Series

I’m going to play the age card here.  Two members of the five members of New York’s Opening Day starting rotation are 35 or older.  I know Pineda is expected to join the mix once he recovers from injury, but you also have to consider the 39-year-old Pettitte.  Mariano Rivera appears to be ageless, but it’s worth noting that New York’s closer is 42.

On the offensive side of things Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are no longer spring chickens and I think Raul Ibanez was featured on the cover of last month’s AARP magazine.

Pineda’s already injured, and no one knows what Phil Hughes will offer this season.  It’s also to be determined if Garcia can provide an encore of last season’s efforts.  Ivan Nova was impressive for the Yankees last season, but he’s still an unproven starter.

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American League Central – Detroit Tigers – Mickey Brignall

• Why the Tigers Will Win the World Series

The Tigers could win it all in 2012 due to the fact their roster is littered with some of the game’s most elite players.  Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are some of the best in the business at what they do.  Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde compose the backend of the Tiger’s bullpen, a duo that is rock solid in terms of closing out games.  Detroit possesses a nice defense up the middle, with Austin Jackson patrolling center and one of the games fastest up-and-coming players Alex Avila behind the plate.  Jhonny Peralta who is widely criticized for his lack of range at short, is very underrated in terms of the routine plays that shortstops do have to make.  The batting order has steady power up and down the lineup outside of Cabrera and Prince.  Guys like Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, Peralta and Avila are all capable of driving the ball over the wall.  And finally, in terms of just making the playoffs, the Tigers probably have it easier than anybody playing in the AL Central.

• Why the Tigers Will Not Win the World Series

The Tigers could also not win it all for plenty of reasons.  The starting pitching could falter once you get past last year’s MVP/Cy Young winner.  Doug Fister could be do for some serious regression after tearing it up in Tiger’s uniform last year.  Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello often look good, but they also have the tendency to look like they have no business being on a mound.  The fifth slot was just given to Drew Smyly who has no big-league experience and only one year of minor league ball under his belt.  Outside of Valverde and Benoit, the bullpen is thin and inexperienced, although hopefully for Detroit the addition of Octavio Dotel helps that cause.  Also, pay attention to how Jim Leyland fills out a lineup card over the course of the season.  He may have ruined Alex Avila’s knees in one season, but he has the tendency to maybe over-rest most of the other regulars, which on occasion will cost the Tigers games.

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American League West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Joe Soriano

• Why the Angels Will Win the World Series

Have you seen that Angels rotation lately? They picked up C.J. Wilson at a lower-than-expected rate, which raised some questions regarding Wilson’s sanity. I mean, he was the top FA starting pitcher and could have cashed in on something closer to $100 million. In any case, the deal worked out for the Angels and gives them the best rotation in the AL. Look at this, you have Jered Weaver at the top followed by Dan Haren (who is just as good as the slightly overrated Weaver) and C.J. Wilson. Then, of course, you have no-hit pitcher Ervin Santana slotted in the No. 4 slot with Jerome Williams backing up the rotation. The Angels are also interested in signing Roy Oswalt, which means they would have an even better rotation with the 3 WAR starter as the No. 4 guy. As it stands, the Angels already have a 3 WAR starter as the fourth man. That’s stacked. They also signed this guy nicknamed “The Machine”, so they basically have baseball’s version of “The Terminator” to go along with a filthy rotation. They can out-pitch anyone in the AL, and they have proven that they can take down the Red Sox. Next up, a beating of the Yankees; they have the pitchers to combat that offense. And oh yeah, they have that Pujols guy to make the offense better.

• Why the Angels Will Not Win the World Series

Have you seen their left fielder? The Vernon Wells signing was a mistake, but it looks like nobody on the Angels has figured out that they are starting somebody in left who isn’t even a sure bet for a .250 OBP. Torii Hunter is also overpaid in right, but at least he’s a decent hitter even if his defense is grossly overrated by some. They finished ten games back last season, but their additions only amount to about nine wins. Yup, it looks like they’re going to fall a win short. The Angels play great defense, but their offense was lacking last season (96 wRC+) and placed them 9th in the AL; right behind the Orioles. You can’t win if you can’t score, and the Angels added one great offensive player to try and keep Wells from dragging down the totals too much. They have to overcome the Rangers in their own division, and they are nowhere near the Yankees offensively. The Bombers also improved their pitching staff, and the Rays always play smart baseball and get production from everyone. The Angels are top-heavy on offense, and we don’t know if those top guys can stay healthy. It’s going to be fun to watch Pujols and Wilson try and bring a Series to LA.

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American League Wild-Card – Tampa Bay Rays – Kyle Davis

• Why the Rays Will Win the World Series

They’re a really good baseball team loaded with young players either entering their prime or already in it. Evan Longoria could very well be the best player in the game, as well as its greatest bargain. Desmond Jennings already did his best Carl Crawford impression (the good version) for one-third of last season and will now be given a full slate of contests to make an impact. Ben Zobrist remains of the most versatile and underrated players around. The team’s rotation, already a major strength and anchored by aces David Price and James Shields, as well as AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson, will be even further bolstered by a full season of consensus top prospect Matt Moore. The bullpen is also extremely competent despite operating under the radar (the whole team sort of tends to do that). As well as the Rays are able to pitch the baseball, they might field it even better, with one of the best defenses in the league saving bunches of runs all season, keeping the team close in almost any game they suit up for. Despite their massive glut of young talent, the Rays also feature a (still) fully loaded farm system, with a great deal of pitching depth at their disposal. This allows them a great deal of injury insurance, as well as the freedom to swing a deal for more hitting should the opportunity arise. Tack on one of the smartest and most effective front offices in the game, as well as a forward-thinking manager who will employ any tactic available to squeeze every advantage from every at-bat, and the Tampa Bay Rays have as good a shot at a World Series Championship as any team in the league.

• Why the Rays Will Not Win the World Series

The AL East is ridiculous. Despite being one of the best teams in the league, the Rays have to content annually with two of the biggest juggernauts in professional sports. The Red Sox and Yankees are two teams capable of operating payrolls that run three, four, or even five times that of the small market Rays. Not only that, but the Blue Jays are starting to improve and make some noise in the division as well. And while the strength of the team lies in its pitching, there are no guarantees when it comes to those shoulders and elbows. Many a team has been made to look foolish depending on young pitching to lead it into the postseason, be it through injury, ineffectiveness or both. The lineup, while interesting, falls off in the latter half, and presents risky propositions in the form of Carlos Pena, Matt Joyce, Jose Molina, and Luke Scott. There are some risks on this team that could very easily flop, and in the most loaded division around, the Rays will need every advantage and break to go their way. A few slip ups here and there and a very talented team could easily miss out on the playoffs by a single game or two. Such is life in the AL East.

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American League Wild-Card – Texas Rangers – Doug Wachter

Why the Rangers Will Win the World Series

There is perhaps no team in baseball better built to take advantage of their home park than Texas, a team with power up and down the lineup and no easy outs. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and the team could conceivably get 30-homer seasons from Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli. I don’t think there’s another lineup in baseball that can boast that kind of depth. The team’s playoff-tested, as they’ve reached two straight World Series and return all of the major pieces in a lineup that scored 855 runs last season, third in baseball. While CJ Wilson will likely toe the rubber against Texas three times this year after inking with the division rival Angels, he’ll be replaced by Japanese import Yu Darvish, who possesses the best stuff of any pitcher ever to come over from NPB. Neftali Feliz will also enter the rotation, and though his major league resume shows an electric closer, Feliz has an excellent starting pedigree. He ranked as the first overall prospect in Baseball America’s 2010 Rangers top 10, and Aaron Fitt’s write-up identifies him as a pitcher with ace potential. If Feliz’s conversion goes well, the team’s rotation could be stronger than either of their two pennant-winning clubs.

Why the Rangers Will Not Win the World Series 

The team’s rotation is certainly a question mark, having lost their ace. Darvish could be great, but a $111.7 total commitment for a player with no MLB experience is a big risk. Darvish could take some time to adjust to life in the States, much less as a star MLB player and a major media attraction. Likewise, if Feliz’s conversion doesn’t work as well as planned, the team could have major gaps in their rotation, and the park effects work against the team’s pitchers as much as they work for their hitters. Injuries cost Hamilton, Beltre, and Cruz 30+ games each last season, and a few key injuries in 2012 could easily derail Texas’ title aspirations. That said, the Rangers are my pick to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2012, and if they can avoid key injuries they should have a good shot.

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