Analyzing Mike Napoli extension talks

According to this article from Jon Heyman, Mike Napoli‘s agent believes that Napoli fits somewhere between Victor Martinez ($52 million) and Yadier Molina ($75 million) among catchers in the MLB.

The 30-year-old Napoli was a revelation last year for the Texas Rangers in a tremendous breakout season, as he was worth 5.7 WAR after three straight solid but under-appreciated seasons with the Los Angeles Angels.

This is the last year of Napoli’s deal, and the right-handed backstop is scheduled to make $9.4 million this season. He is open to discussing an extension this season, so that’s good news for the Texas Rangers. Keeping him will be important to maintaining the most potent offense in the MLB, and the Rangers have been the best team in baseball early this season.

Mike Napoli currently has three home runs through 36 plate appearances this season, and his tremendous power output early on has helped him post an early 124 wRC+ despite a .176 BABIP.

Last season, Napoli hit 30 home runs and got his BB% to 13.4%, which- along with an extremely lucky .344 BABIP- led to a .414 OBP. His power (.312 ISO) and OBP fueled his .444 wOBA and 178 wRC+ last season. Despite the abnormally high BABIP, Napoli had a terrific season overall and was worth 5.7 WAR.

What helped Mike Napoli out as a hitter was the fact that he became more patient and disciplined at the plate on a whole, although there was not one specific part of his game in which he improved dramatically in last season. That’s more of a good thing than a bad one, and discipline is important to have next to power.

Most projection systems value him as a 5.5 WAR player for this season, so we can take a look at Napoli’s estimated value from 2013-2016 if he gets a four-year deal. By the way, Heyman also mentions that the Rangers may have offered less than $52 million to Napoli in the offseason, but this is merely a suggestion from Heyman.

2013 (age 31) 5 WAR

2014 (age 32) 4 WAR

2015 (age 33) 3 WAR

2016 (age 34) 2 WAR

The drastic decline is used because Mike Napoli is a catcher and a steep decline must be projected. If he moves to first base or DH, then his value will also take a hit due to positional adjustment later on in his career.

This four-year sample projects that Napoli will be worth 14 WAR over those seasons, or about 3.5 WAR per season. Based on these numbers, Mike Napoli should receive $63 million over those four seasons for an average of $15.75 million per year.

Mike Napoli is legitimately one of the best catchers in the game, and his offense is off-the-charts for his position. He was lucky last season based on BABIP, but he also did a good job of drawing walks and flexing his incredible power. A .444 OBP isn’t all BABIP-driven, and he is a sure bet for a .300 ISO for the next couple of years. Locking him up will be key for the Texas Rangers, and they should be prepared to pay around $63 million for him (between Molina and Martinez).

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