Unlike Pujols, McCutchen Produces Through Power Outage

Last night, Albert Pujols finally ended his long power drought on a home run to left in his 111th at-bat of the season. Pujols’ drought was scrutinized intensely, because of his new contract, his legendary consistency, and his role as the focal point in the Angels’ marketing efforts that currently finds him plastered across billboards throughout Los Angeles. As Jerry Crasnick noted on Twitter, Andrew McCutchen, Jimmy Rollins, Jeff Francoeur, and Yonder Alonso are among the most surprising players who are still homerless for the regular season.

Alfonso Soriano has put up 20+ home runs in every year since 2002 and Marlon Byrd would have hit double-digits for the fifth straight year in 2011 but fell one short while playing only 119 games, so it also has to be considered something of a surprise that both of these former Cubs teammates have yet to leave the yard in 2012, despite both being well into the decline phases of their respective careers.

In that sense, McCutchen’s power outage may be the biggest shock in the bunch. Only 25 years old, McCutchen locked in to a long-term deal this offseason that keeps him in Pittsburgh through 2017, with a club option for 2018. All signs pointed to his being prepared to transition from developing stud to an actualized star ready to lead the Pirates to their first postseason baseball since Sid Bream’s pennant-winning slide lifted the Braves to the World Series in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. McCutchen’s small but sturdy 5’10” frame has suggested for some time that his power may develop as he ages into the prime of his career. His numbers have backed that assertion up, as he’s increased his home run output in each of his three years in the league and in 2011 put up a career-best isolated power of .198 that trailed only Matt Kemp and Shane Victorino among NL centerfielders.

Instead of continuing his power trend, however, McCutchen basically hasn’t showed any pop at all in 2012. Among McCutchen’s 28 hits, his only extra base hits have come in the form of six doubles and a triple. Despite his punchless bat, he’s been able to reach base at a solid clip, for a .298 AVG/.356 OBP. These rates help keep some scrutiny off of McCutchen, as Pujols’ power drought was even worse given that he’s paired it with an average below the Mendoza Line.

McCutchen’s been reaching base consistently despite his lack of power by hitting an inordinate amount of balls on the ground and reaching base on an extremely high percentage of those balls. So far this season, McCutchen’s put the ball on the ground on slightly more than half of his balls in play, as compared to a career rate of 42%, along with a career-low last season that accompanied a career-high flyball rate to serve as a major contributor to his power development. Although McCutchen’s current 6.7% walk rate is also well below his career 11.4% mark (and career-high 13.1% rate in 2011), he’s been able to get himself on the bases using his speed and a little bit of luck, as he’s hit .364 on balls in play so far this season. McCutchen’s career BABIP is .312, and if he’s traded some fly balls for grounders we’d expect that to rise slightly, but in all likelihood his BABIP will come back to earth at least some, and his rates will suffer as a result.

Despite all that, the fact is that McCutchen has been able to overcome one of the worst months of his career with the bat and escape without a fraction of the scrutiny afforded to Pujols. I’d attribute that fact, and much of the reason the Pirates were willing to extend McCutchen, to the many ways he’s able to add value without hitting effectively. While McCutchen may not be hitting for power, his speed allows him to consistently reach base even without hitting the ball with authority, and it also allows him to make an impact on defense and on the basepaths. While Pujols’ glove is certainly one of the best at his position in the league, the simple fact is that it’s really not that hard to find someone who can effectively take on the defensive responsibilities of first base. In McCutchen, however, the Pirates have an impact player who can stand out with his bat at a premium defensive position. McCutchen is a prime example of the old maxim that “speed doesn’t slump,” and while his power may desert him, he’ll continue to find other ways to add value. However, I expect that he will get his bat on track, and if McCutchen can take the next step forward and push toward a home run total in the mid-to-high twenties this year, his value in each phase of the game would make him one of the most unique and valuable stars in baseball.

Twitter Question of the Day: When will the Pirates next see the playoffs? 2012? 2015? 2020?

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