The Oakland Athletics have named Brian Fuentes their new closer after he recorded his second save of the season against the Detroit Tigers. However, Fuentes, as usual, had to give up a run and makes things a bit interesting in that outing. Grant Balfour has been struggling of late, but Balfour is the far better reliever and has more “clean” outings.
Fuentes has a solid 2.95 FIP in 13 innings this season and is looking to bounce back after a poor 2010 season (4.16 FIP). He had some good seasons in the past, but Fuentes has below-average stuff and is 36 years old. Balfour, meanwhile, has better stuff and is coming off of a better 2011 season.
Even so, there is reason to think that Fuentes is the better closer. Although it is too early to change closers, Balfour has been poor this season with a 4.41 ERA in 16.1 innings. He has struck out just six batters per nine innings, but his projected total for the year was 8.5. The low strikeout numbers aren’t going to last, so it may seem a bit too early to make a change.
However, the plate discipline statistics back up the declining strikeout numbers for Balfour. Hitters are getting a little more contact off of him than in years past, and his O-Swing% is also declining a little. Balfour’s SwStr% decline is the most troubling, as it was at 7% in 2011 and steadily declined since a total of 11.6% in 2008. Meanwhile, Fuentes is still getting a swing strike about 8.5% of the time.
So while Grant Balfour has the better stuff and doesn’t have as many “dirty” outings (do any of you listen to the fantasy baseball podcast from ESPN?), Brian Fuentes has the lower projected ERA and is actually inducing more whiffs, even if the Ks are lower. He doesn’t induce as many grounders as Balfour, but he has better control.
Both relievers are closer-worthy, so it does make sense to roll with the reliever who is pitching better. But if Balfour starts to outperform Fuentes again, then the Athletics should switch things up again and give Balfour those closer reps. Either way, both relievers will remain pitching in high-leverage situations, so it doesn’t matter who closes, as long as they get the key innings.
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