It’s a Question of Command for Chris Beck

Chris Beck’s arsenal of pitches has to drive you insane. It’s unorthodox, and this season, it’s been ineffective. Beck’s fastball is a nice pitch but doesn’t exactly blow evaluators away, sitting most often in the low 90’s with run away from right-handed hitters. Beck does build off it well with a nice changeup that keeps improving and is at least a tick above-average offering right now. But the pitch that has prompted the most discussion is Beck’s breaking ball. Beck’s breaking ball hits the high-70’s to low-80’s, usually curveball velocity, but instead it features sharp, tight late break like a slider. After a great sophomore season, Beck came into 2012 looking like a top 10 pick. Instead, Beck has struggled, inciting doubt about his repertoire. Does Beck still have the same upside that evaluators thought he had just a few months ago?

Thus far in 2012, Beck, a 6’3″, 210 right-hander has gone just 4-7 for Georgia Southern University with a 3.84 ERA, 100 strikeouts (10.1 K/9), 25 walks (2.5 BB/9), but 11 home runs allowed (1.1 HR/9) in 13 starts, 4 of which were complete games, 1 relief appearance (in which he earned a save), and 89 IP. The big concern is clearly the home runs allowed. And that is despite the fact that Georgia Southern plays in the Southern Conference, not exactly the most feared conference in the country. Beck’s FIP was 3.40, but lower FIPs are common among college pitchers, especially at smaller colleges, because of poor defense behind them. Beck’s xFIP (based on the fact that there have been around 8.5 flyouts per homer the last several seasons in the major leagues) was a bit lower at 3.27, but the truly alarming thing was Beck’s groundout to flyout ratio: just 66 to 87 (.76) far below the 2 to 1 ratio that you want. Just 9 major league pitchers had GO/AO ratios lower than that in 2011 (Jered Weaver was dead last in the league at .58). Beck also allowed 101 hits in 89 innings, but the interesting thing was that just 24.7% of the hits against him went for extra-bases, slightly below the team average of 25.3%. The flyballs that Beck allowed were not all that hard, but when hitters got the barrel of the bat on his pitches, the ball went far. Something so notable that it had to be a fluke is that Beck allowed 11 homers compared to 14 other extra-base hits. That’s a ratio of .786. The rest of the GSU pitching staff had just a .375 mark.

What does all this mean? Right now, Chris Beck is a clear flyball pitcher. But he’s gotten hit inordinately hard at GSU given his arsenal of pitches and overall potential. Beck has some Jered Weaver in him. He’s a much smaller guy but his stuff is similar. Weaver has also been a pitcher whose breaking balls have meshed between a slider and curveball. But in order to reach even a fraction of that level, Beck will need to make considerable strides with his command. Beck’s control is fine and he stays around the zone, but all his pitches are susceptible to being hit hard when he leaves them up. Unless whichever team drafts him completely changes his fastball, which has been so successful at forcing swings and misses even if it gets hit in the air too often, Beck will always be a flyball pitcher. The question is whether he can improve his command enough to be successful. Beck’s command issues and flyball tendencies will drop him in the draft and could be problems for him his entire career. He will likely go from a probable top 10 pick not too long ago to a late first round or supplemental round selection. But if he can fix his command, he could be an excellent value wherever he’s selected and potentially a very good number two starter in the big leagues.