Baltimore Orioles should pursue Roy Oswalt

Count another AL East team in on the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes, as Jon Heyman tweeted that the Baltimore Orioles have Oswalt “on their radar”. The Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, and the AL East’s Boston Red Sox are also interested in Oswalt.

Oswalt chose to forego signing in the offseason to wait and make a deal during the regular season with a contender, but the contenders haven’t shown too much interest. He could be inclined to go to a different team, such as the rising Orioles who are defying odds with their terrific start to the season.

Last year, the veteran right-hander was worth 2.5 WAR after a 4.7 WAR season the previous year. In fact, it was the lowest WAR total in Oswalt’s career. He struck out just six batters per nine innings, which was a full strikeout below his career average of seven. Oswalt’s control and GB rates were normal, but it should be noted that his BABIP was 22 points higher than his career average.

In the end, the Phillies starter finished the 2011 season with a 3.44 FIP, a 3.69 ERA, and a 3.95 xFIP. His 6.3 HR/FB% was slightly lucky, but Oswalt does own a career 8.8 HR/FB% and almost always outperforms his xFIP.

One troubling thing is that his fastball velocity fell down a full mile per hour, but the good thing is that it didn’t seem to affect its effectiveness overall. He actually induced a career high amount of chases (about a third of the time), but hitters did make more contact on Roy Oswalt than usual. This could be because he threw slightly less first pitch strikes than usual and more pitches out of the zone, and this negatively impacted his whiff rate.

The patterns in Oswalt’s 2011 season show that there is a lot of statistical noise going on, because there are so many different anomalies with Zone% and O-Swing%. It seems like hitters were making more contact off of Oswalt out of the zone than usual, and the difference was significant (around 10%). His whiff rate crashed downward, but it just seems like he was unlucky last season and had a down year.

The plate discipline stats don’t seem to make much sense when comparing them, because higher O-Swing% and O-Contact% are good at depressing contact. Instead, Oswalt allowed a .316 BABIP. The O-Contact% can explain the drop in strikeout numbers, which is unlikely to happen again either. He threw more pitches out of the zone, but the higher amount of chases and contact on those pitches kept his walk rate steady.

Roy Oswalt is a pitcher who is worth 3 WAR over 150 innings at this point, so he is well worth the time for a contender who needs him. The Baltimore Orioles need some more pitching, because this streak definitely won’t last if they don’t have more talent in the rotation, especially in the form of a solid veteran who can be a No. 2 or a great No. 3 starter.

The O’s look more like pretenders than contenders on paper, especially in an ultra-competitive division. However, adding a 3 WAR starter like Oswalt who will see a slight up-tick in his numbers due to good regression (what happened last year was 140 innings of weirdness) would greatly aid this team’s chances. It is unclear as to whether or not Oswalt would sign there, so we’ll have to see how interested he is in the O’s.

For Baltimore, two things need to happen to get Oswalt signed. They have to believe in themselves as potential contenders, and Oswalt has to as well. The Phillies are already stacked in their rotation, but they could sign Oswalt if they trade Joe Blanton (Kevin Youkilis is always an option). The Rangers have far too much depth in the rotation but are interested in Oswalt in light of the recent injury to Neftali Feliz, but it doesn’t seem like they should pursue that option.

Oswalt is still one of the better pitchers in the Majors, and the Orioles are the team with the most need and should take the gamble and see if he is interested. By showing heightened interest, the O’s could instill confidence into Oswalt that they have a legitimate chance. It is a risk, and it’s worth taking if he is paid $12 million or less per year for a maximum of two years. A one year deal is ideal, and Oswalt might be willing to take it if the price is bumped up a million or two for that one year. He wants to win a World Series ring, but he could be changing his mind soon as team’s are more willing to stand pat than he thought. The Orioles should extend him an offer and see where both sides are at; it’s the least they can do.

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