The Toronto Blue Jays are Better than You Think

Coming into today, the Toronto Blue Jay stand at 24-22, five games back in the AL East and ahead of only Boston within the division. It’s an incredibly balanced division, and an incredibly good one, as all five teams currently have a positive run differential. In fact, outside of the East, there are only two teams in the entire American League that can boast a positive run differential at all. When you consider that a balanced MLB schedule is not yet upon us, this means that all five of the AL East teams are actually even better than their run differential indicates, as they have to play each other frequently. You probably didn’t notice this unless you went out of your way, but of these five very imposing teams, the group with the best run differential plays in Toronto.

They’ve done this very quietly, so it’s understandable if you didn’t realize it; I won’t even hold it against you at all, and I’m typically pretty unforgiving. First of all, they play in a different country, and that always makes it easier for them to drift away into baseball obscurity. While roughly 99.2% of all baseball fans call the Yankees or Red Sox their favorite team, it’s actually been the Baltimore Orioles who have been stealing the headlines so far this year, and their tenuous (and extremely temporary) lead holds at one game going into the action today. The Yankees and Rays have run off three straight wins, while the Jays have slumped and dropped their last three games. Take a look at their opponents and it’s understandable, however; they took on Texas first and then lost the first game in a series against Tampa Bay.

Without Baltimore’s typical cellar-dwelling ways to keep them company, the odd team out is Toronto this season, and it may remain that way for a while. The fact is, however, that this quiet Canadian team is actually quite good, and thanks to a robust farm system, they’ll only be getting better in the near future. If you take a look at their middling offensive numbers as a team this season, you’ll notice that they have yet to get the expected amount of production from any one hitter not named Edwin Encarnacion, who for some reason has 15 homers and a .929 OPS. Backstop J.P. Arencibia is doing about all he can do as well, showing the expected pop and the expected lack of plate discipline. Even Jose Bautista has looked a lot more like his new self (as opposed to his utility player days on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bench self), as he’s launched nine home runs this month compared to just three in April.

Take a look at the rest of the hitters Toronto runs out in its daily lineup, and it’s hard to imagine a return to form is not in order. General manager Alex Anthopoulos has done a fantastic job building the core of this team, acquiring talented but enigmatic potential stars like shortstop Yunel Escobar and center fielder Colby Rasmus when their respective stocks were at the lowest possible point to hit alongside bats like Bautista, Brett Lawrie, and the powerful Eric Thames. The lineup is rife with potential, and could easily stack up with the best offenses in the game once it gets going. Bear in mind that two of baseball’s very best prospects, catcher Travis d’Arnaud and center fielder Anthony Gose, currently sit just one level away from the majors, their time drawing nearer by the day. Things really couldn’t have gone worse for the offense thus far, and it’s only a matter of time before that changes.

The pitching situation is a different story. The organization’s best pitching prospect according to Baseball America is Daniel Norris, and he’s yet to throw a professional pitch at this point. The Jays have no obvious candidates for reinforcement from within, and they may need to seek help to bolster both their rotation and bullpen, as both units are sitting nearly dead list in all of baseball in terms of collective WAR. Granted, upside exists with Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison, and the usually solid Ricky Romero is bound to correct his surprising control problems sooner than later, but knowing the GM’s affinity for making good trades, it wouldn’t be stunning to see him address the pitching if it remains an issue in July.

For now, patience is all that’s needed for Toronto fans. Even with so few things going right for this team in 2012, they’re still right in the thick of things in the game’s toughest division. When fortune chooses to be a little less stingy about smiling on Canada, this could very well be a team no one wants to mess with — or at least pitch to.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.