Hot and Cold Starts: Will The Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, And Others Finish As They Started?

We’re now nearly two months into the 2012 MLB season, and as usual there are a number of teams surprising the masses with how they have performed thus far. For some teams, like the Orioles and Dodgers, the surprise has been a pleasant one for their fan bases. (Think finding a 20 dollar bill under the passenger seat when you’re cleaning out your filthy car). For others, like the Red Sox and Tigers, the experience has been far less desirable. (Think finding a dead rat under the passenger seat when you’re cleaning out your filthy car that has clearly been inhabited by rats). With over 25% of the season gone, it seems like a fair enough time to evaluate this season’s surprise teams in terms of how I expect them to finish. Some teams have managed to change my mind with their early play, while others remain on track in terms of what I unscientifically forecast for them in March. I chose five teams from each league so I wouldn’t go overboard and just talk about every team.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore Orioles (29-18): The Orioles have some interesting pieces, but this isn’t one of those ’08 Rays situations in which you think a team is a year off but they arrive early. This is a deeply flawed group of players that has survived largely on overachieving performances by Adam Jones, Jason Hammel, and others. The O’s are 19th in baseball in OBP but sixth in runs. Something isn’t adding up there. Their run of faux-dominance may be over before I finish typing this sentence.

Boston Red Sox (23-23): The early season struggles of the Red Sox have been widely publicized, but this is a team with a deadly offense and a pitching staff capable of far more. Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, two solid rotation members, have had bouts of considerable awfulness, and that’s just not likely to continue. Daniel Bard may adapt to life as a starter as he gets more familiar with pitching six or seven innings as well. The Red Sox will find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long.

Cleveland Indians (26-20): So I didn’t have any faith in the Indians at all despite everyone’s continued attempts to convince me that the team’s pitching staff was underrated. Where many saw “underrated,” I saw “middling.” Well, the Indians have held their own so far, and I expect them to make the AL Central a little closer than I originally imagined. I still don’t think they’ll win the division, but Shin-Soo Choo is starting to rebound and the rest of the offense is getting on base. They’ll finish above .500 but out of the postseason.

Detroit Tigers (22-24): The Tigers have such a talented and under-performing roster. The big bats (and big bellies) of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have been subdued thus far, and there have been plenty of ups and downs when it comes to the starting rotation. In the end, a front three of Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, and Max Scherzer is going to look extremely formidable. The Tigers are still winning the AL Central, and your underdog of choice isn’t going to be able to do anything about it.

Los Angeles Angels (23-25): The Angels looked poised to possibly unseat an extremely well-rounded Texas team (perhaps the best team in the game) for the AL West crown if things broke right. The team obviously needs to depend on a stellar starting rotation, and it has, but getting shut out every couple of nights makes it hard. The Angels have yet to manage to find a way to hold the opposition to -1 runs in a game. Albert Pujols is heating up, Mike Trout is asserting his greatness, and the Angels will have every chance to grab a wild card spot.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Washington Nationals (28-18): I liked the Nationals going into the season, and I still do. The rotation fits perfectly with the home park, and new acquisition Gio Gonzalez has been able to curb his control issues to become one of the best hurlers in the league so far in 2012. Bryce Harper has hit .278/.366/.495 so far as a 19-year-old with little seasoning, and much of the offense is set to return from injury within the next month. The Nationals will be in the thick of the NL East race all season.

New York Mets (26-21): Right behind the Nationals we have the shocking New York Mets, a team almost universally picked to finish last in the NL East. The Mets have raised eyebrows thanks to David Wright‘s continuing flirtation with .400 (and random resurgence as a player worth caring about) and Johan Santana‘s successful rehabilitation. The Mets have far too many holes, though, and that -21 run differential shows us a team far different than the 26-21 record would indicate. They won’t even sniff a playoff berth.

Milwaukee Brewers (19-27): The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, but they added Aramis Ramirez and still get to trot out the likes of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, and Shaun Marcum 60% of the time. Well, the offense is stalling, Rickie Weeks can’t do anything right, and the pitching staff has underwhelmed as a whole. It’s actually becoming evident that Milwaukee doesn’t have the roster surpluses to compete with St. Louis or Cincinnati, but they’re at least a .500 team once it’s all said and done.

Los Angeles Dodgers (31-15): The Dodgers have wowed the world with their fast start, but the team’s offense has been scoring runs by placing blown-up baseball cards of dudes who played when you were a kid at home plate. No team gets to win with the ghost of Bobby Abreu‘s ghost hitting third, and the Dodgers won’t be an exception. Even when Matt Kemp returns from injury, the lineup is too weak to ultimately make this team a dangerous one. The entire pitching staff is formidable, but the Dodgers are going to get matched or beaten by teams with similar strengths and higher-upside weaknesses.

Arizona Diamondbacks (21-26): The D-Backs won 94 games a year ago, and they probably won’t be able to find a way to do that again in 2012. That said, the pitching staff is solid up front and Trevor Bauer is surely on the way. Arizona sits seventh in baseball in OBP and 16th in runs scored. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have half-imploded. Justin Upton has sternly refused to be the best player in baseball. Things will be improving soon and the Diamondbacks will be right in the middle of a fight for the NL West title.

If Brian’s writing makes you a happy camper, follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct and read his work at StanGraphs.