Our Final S2S 2012 MLB Mock Draft (Part 2)

We continue with our mock draft that we started earlier today. In this post we’ll deal with picks 16-31 in the draft to finish off the first round.

16th Overall: Washington Nationals

With the Nationals making their moves and going on a playoff run, their team culture has completely changed. But the Nationals realize that if they want continue what they’re starting right now, they’re going to need continued help from their minor league system. I see them going with a high school pitcher here to refurbish their system after trading Tom Milone, Brad Peacock, and A.J. Cole in the Gio Gonzalez deal. A couple of possible fits are Ty Hensley and Lucas Sims.

Hensley, 6’5″ and 220 pounds out of Santa Fe High School, sits in the low-to-mid-90’s with his fastball that features some nice sink and he also throws a nasty downer curveball. His remaining projection is non-existent- you see him at one of his high school games and he looks like a man among boys- and his command is extremely inconsistent, but his fastball-curve combo along with a changuep that has shown good early signs makes him a topflight prospect.

Sims, 6’2″ and 195 pounds coming out of Brookwood High School in Georgia, features nice polish for a high school product. Sims stays in the low-90’s with his fastball with late downward action and complements it with a tight slider and a solid curveball. He has a smooth delivery, although some nonchalantness in his motion has led to occasional command problems. That should be correctable without much of a problem. Sims doesn’t have the highest ceiling, lacking projection, but he has an impressive arsenal and his breaking pitches should only get better.

Sims is a nice prospect, but Hensley has bigger stuff and makes mores sense here.

The Pick: Ty Hensley, Sante Fe High School, OK

17th Overall: Toronto Blue Jays

At least in this mock, the Blue Jays got their man. The Jays have always been a pure upside team, and from a pure upside standpoint it is hard to beat McCullers and his triple-digit fastball. If he is on the board at the 17th overall, pending some crazy circumstances, he will be the Jays’pick.

The Pick: Lance McCullers, RHP, Tampa Jesuit High School, FL

18th Overall: Los Angeles Dodgers

In their first draft under their new ownership, the Dodgers could go a lot of different ways with this pick. The past ten years, the Dodgers have drafted a pitcher in the first round. This could be the year that ends that streak. The Dodgers have needs all over the spectrum. A.J. Ellis broke out this year, but he’s 31 years old and they need a catcher of the future. At third base, they have little beyond Juan Uribe. And even at first base, James Loney is not the ideal. Shaffer is available to address the need at first base, but three others players that the Dodgers will consider are Stryker Trahan, Corey Seager, and Joey Gallo.

Trahan, a 6’1″, 220 catcher out of Acadiana High School in Mississippi, features a package of tools that stands out in this draft class. Trahan has a powerful swing and hits for very present power, although he has been vulnerable to some strikeouts. Defensively, he has an excellent release but needs a lot of work carrying out some of the intricacies of the catcher position, specifically blocking balls in the dirt. But the unique thing for Trahan is his speed. Trahan is ridiculously fast for his size and has above-average overall speed, unheard of for his size. Trahan could be the rare catcher that can steal 15-20 bases annually, and that number could go up if he moves off the catcher positions. Trahan has dropped (he was 6th in my last mock) because he failed to improve at catcher and because he has sold out too much for power at times, losing bat speed and making him look much worse overall. But the tools are all still there and Trahan is a great talent.

Seager, a 6’3″, 205 shortstop at Northwest Cabarrus High School in North Carolina, is the younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager and projects as a third baseman himself moving forward. Seager shows nice bat speed with a compact swing and his propensity for making contact. His plate discipline is not at the level scouts would like and he’s somewhat of a free-swinger at this point, leading to too much weak contact. Occasional timing problem have plagued him as well. However, Seager has impressive power when he gets the ball on the barrel of the bat, particularly going the other way, and defensively he has the arm strength and reflexes to be a good defensive third baseman. Seager has parts of his game that have to be cleaned up, but the tools are definitely there.

If the Dodgers want a compromise pick, they could go with Gallo, a 6″5′, 205 third baseman/pitcher out of Bishop Gorman High School in Nevada. Gallo shows excellent raw power, but he has inconsistent timing and holes in his uppercut swing as a lefty batter, and he looks bad more often than he should. He hits the ball hard when he connects and shows nice bat speed, and he even slams some monster home runs. But the consistency has not been there for him. One of the problems could be his Evan Longoria-esque stance where he starts standing in the back of the batter’s box before striding into an open stance. Maybe repetition of his swing is all Gallo needs, but he’s certainly not there yet. Defensively, Gallo has a rocket for an arm, as would be expected from a pitcher, although as a bigger guy his actions at third aren’t particularly smooth and he could fit better at first base, although that would take his arm out of the game. Gallo has a nice fallback in his pitching ability as he has been clocked as high as 98 MPH with his fastball with a sharp slider. Some teams are more interested in him as a pitcher rather than a corner infielder. Gallo has tons of raw ability but the question is whether he’ll be able to put it all together as an infielder or whether he’ll have to try his hand on the mound long-term.

I had Gallo going to the Dodgers in my last mock draft and I think his overall ability has to intrigue the Dodgers here still. Gallo has the ability to end up as a big league corner infielder with big-time power and worst-case scenario he becomes a pitcher where his abilities are arguably as impressive.

The Pick: Joey Gallo, 3B/RHP, Bishop Gorman High School, NV

19th Overall: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have managed to continue to contend despite the absence of some player named Albert Pujols and they look to still be in the mode of drafting college players who could contribute in the big leagues before too long. Two options are Shaffer and Stanford third baseman/outfielder Stephen Piscotty.

Piscotty, 6″3, 215, possesses a silky smooth swing and drills line drive after line drive, although his power is more doubles-oriented than homers-oriented. But the rest of his game is more questionable. Piscotty is a below-average runner and although he has good arm strength he has not shown great actions at third base and has played some left field at Stanford. Piscotty doesn’t have the usual power profile for either position, but his lack of power would be especially noticeable in left field. Piscotty could project as a consistent .315 hitter, but where he hits like that has yet to be determined.

I think Shaffer makes more sense with this pick. He has the power and plate discipline to profile well at first base, where the Cardinals don’t necessarily have a first baseman of the future. Shaffer won’t come in and be Pujols but he has the abilities to be an above-average big league first baseman before too long. and who knows how long Lance Berkman will last.

The Pick: Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson University

20th Overall: San Francisco Giants

Do you know what might not be fair? For the Giants to take the impressive starting rotation they have know and add in another upper-level talent. The Giants have two clear options here in Wacha and Solon High School lefty Matt Smoral.

Smoral, 6’7″ and 205 pounds, has outstanding stuff but slipped this far after undergoing foot surgery. When healthy, Smoral throws in the mid-90’s with his fastball with nice sink and he pairs it with a sharp break. He also shows a changeup with some promise. However, in addition to his injury problems, Smoral has suffered through wildness thanks to inconsistency in his mechanics because of his size. Smoral has questions surrounding him, but his upside appears to be more than worth it.

I think it makes sense for the Giants to go with Smoral because they have the starting depth to risk a pick like him and because they have no need for another big league starter right now. Smoral w0uld give the Giants an impressive arm to develop, and he has a chance to be another great one.

The Pick: Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon High School, OH

21st Overall: Atlanta Braves

Chipper Jones is on the brink of retirement and the Braves still lack a viable third baseman of the future to replace him. They could address that with this pick. The first option is Seager. And a second option is Upland High School third baseman Daniel Robertson.

Robertson, 6’1″, 190, is an unorthodox third base prospect. He makes hard contact and drills line drives to all fields with impressive bat speed, but what’s interesting about him is that his raw home run power is right around average and it hasn’t shown up too often so far. Defensively, Robertson is a sub-par runner but he has an excellent arm and great reflexes and looks to stick at third base. Robertson won’t provide a big middle-of-the-order power bat, but he has the ability to hit for a high average and contribute solid power while playing good defense.

I think the Braves go with Seager because he’s more of a conventional third base prospect and they have never been an eccentrically drafting team.

The Pick: Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus High School, NC

22nd Overall: Toronto Blue Jays

After getting McCullers with their first pick the Blue Jays will look for upside again here. A player that sticks out is Carroll High School outfielder Courtney Hawkins.

Hawkins, 6’3″ and 220 pounds, features breathtaking power to all fields with excellent bat speed. But his emphasis on power has mess up the other parts of his offensive game. Hawkins struggles with pitch recognition and swings and misses a lot breaking balls. He has tons of moving parts in his swing and his timing sometimes completely falters, turning would-be home runs into pop-ups. But his power may supersede all that. Hawkins has speed that comes in slightly above-average, but he has a strong arm and more than enough power to move to a corner outfield spot if necessary. Hawkins needs a lot of work but has the ability to be a big-time home run hitters. He’s a project the Jays would love to take on.

The Pick: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll High School, TX

23rd Overall: St. Louis Cardinals

The way it works out here, the Cardinals could end up with both Shaffer and Piscotty. Piscotty may not have a set position, but his bat will get him in the lineup and the Cardinals would definitely like another polished bat. But they also have to consider some of the high-upside high school pitchers at this point. Sims remains on the board, but he’s not a true upside player. Shane Watson and Zach Eflin are two players who are.

Watson, a 6’4″, 190 right-hander at Lakewood High School, throws from the low-80’s to the low-90’s with his fastball with good sinking action. He could get his velocity consistently up as he fills out his frame. He also throws a high-70’s breaking ball with sharp late break and is developing a changeup. Watson has an impressive arsenal but he crossfires somewhat in his delivery, which adds deception but messes with his controls and opens the door for injury, and he also has a hitch in his delivery that puts a lot of pressure on his lower body. Watson has nice upside, but I don’t think he’s a good value at this point in the draft.

Eflin, a 6’5″, 200 righty from Hagerty High School, flashed a fastball from the 93-97 MPH range with nice sink, a good changeup, and a curveball that had its moments before he went down in April with a triceps injury in his pitching arm. Eflin controls his pitches well and has room for growth on his secondary pitches, but the injury concern makes him too much of a risk here.

The Cardinals will go through all their options, but Piscotty seems to be the best fit.

The Pick: Stephen Piscotty, 3B/LF, Stanford University

24th Overall: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox need starting pitching and in this mock at least, Wacha has free-fallen to this point. Watson and Eflin also have to be considered, but the Red Sox would love to get a relatively safe starter in Wacha with the upside to improve.

The Pick: Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M University

25th Overall: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays love to go for high school up-the-middle players in the first round of the draft, but we know that they would not mind another pitcher. However, their biggest need right now is catcher, and while they won’t draft for need, if they see Trahan fall into their lap like this they won’t hesitate to select him. Trahan gives the Rays an impressive catching prospect- although he does need significant work defensively, and his bat plays even if he moves off the position. Trahan would be a sharp contrast to the Rays’ current top catching prospects, Luke Bailey, Justin O’Conner, and Jake DePew, who have shown impressive defense but have not hit. And who other than the Rays would draft a catcher who can run?

The Pick: Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana High School, MS

26th Overall: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are a team that likes to go with college picks in the first round, but their biggest issue might be overall minor league position player depth and that could be the direction they go with this pick. With Ryan Roberts already 31 years old, a position of need is third base, even with Matt Davidson rising up the ranks. The Diamondbacks will have to consider Daniel Robertson. Even though they’re loaded up with pitching, they’ll have to consider Watson and Eflin as well. Another option is Pace High School shortstop Addison Russell.

Russell, 6’1″ and 205 pounds, does not look like you typical shortstop prospect, and he may very well have to move off the position. But his overall ability makes him a noteworthy progres nonetheless. Russell shows nice bat speed with the ability to hit line drives to all fields with some nice raw power. He gets into trouble, however, when he sells out for power and he lets his swing get long. Defensively, Russell has just average speed but quick reflexes and a strong arm. He gets the job done at shortstop but doesn’t look too flashy doing so. But he has the ability to be a good defender at either second or third base and his bat fits that profile as well. Russell has very good all-around ability and could profile well at one of several positions.

I think the Diamondbacks would rather go with a more polished player here and Robertson fits that better than Russell with his outstanding ability to hit for average.

The Pick: Daniel Robertson, 3B, Upland High School, CA

27th Overall: Milwaukee Brewers

28th Overall: Milwaukee Brewers

With two picks in a row, the Brewers can go in a lot of different directions. Their major needs are on the infield and a catcher, but it’s unlikely that they’ll take two need picks here. Russell is an excellent fit for their Brewers because they’ll have needs at third base, shortstop, and possibly second base (with Rickie Weeks becoming a free agent) and he has the ability to be an impact player at one of those positions. Their second pick is much more interesting. The Brewers have a ton of pitching in their system, but they could definitely go that route here. With multiple picks and all their pitching depth, the Brewers could take the risk on Watson or Eflin. One other option is Missouri State right-hander Pierce Johnson.

Johnson, 6’3″ and 180 pounds, is a polished right-hander with pitches that induce swings-and-misses. His fastball ranges from the low to mid-90’s fastball with late sink, but that’s his second best pitch to his slider. His slider looks like his fastball before falling off the table, but at times he gets too dependent on it and its movement often takes it out of the zone, making it most effective when he mixes it in off his fastball. Johnson is able to force groundballs with a nice cutter and he also features a changeup that has a nice contrast to his fastball. But while his stuff is good- he has the ability to be a number two starter- his injury concerns are not. Johnson is injury prone, dealing with a series of minor injuries, most notably in his pitching forearm.

Watson is the most likely selection here because of his abilities and because he doesn’t actually have a history of arm trouble. Maybe his delivery could be cleaned up and he could retain his impressive arsenal without some of the risk involved the current delivery. With Eflin and Johnson, the injuries aren’t just concerns but tangible things that happened, and Watson gets a leg up on them here.

The Picks: Addison Russell, SS, Pace High School, FL

Shane Watson, RHP, Lakewood High School, CA

29th Overall: Texas Rangers

The Rangers are another franchise that loves upside, and there’s plenty of that available with this pick. You have Eflin still on the board and then there is outfielder D.J. Davis. But an interesting option here could be Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache.

Davis, 6’0″ and 170 pounds, has tons of ability but a lot of it has not been harnessed as of yet. It starts with his speed- he runs a 6.4 in the 60 yard dash, which comes out to a 4.2 in the 40. That’s about as fast as you’ll ever see. Davis has blazing speed and makes full use of it on the basepaths and in centerfield, although he needs some work reading pitchers. In centerfield, Davis downright glides in centerfield and makes things look easy. But the question with Davis is his bat. Davis shows flashes of great bat speed and even some power.  But often he just makes poor contact and hits the ball on the ground- still not a bad proposition because of his speed, but not what you want to see. Davis has shown nice patience, helping him take advantage of his speed, but he has not always made quality contact. Davis’ speed is a special tool and he has superstar upside. But there’s always the chance that he doesn’t hit enough.

Roache is another upside pick, but in a completely different sense. Roache, 6’1″ and 225 pounds, led the nation in homers in 2011 with 30 but missed all but 6 games this season following wrist surgery. When healthy, Roache shows outstanding power not just from strength but from exceptional bat speed. He simply annihilates fastballs when he’s on, but at this point he needs a lot of work versus offspeed pitches. His patience could also use some improvement. Roache has the halfway-decent speed and arm to survive in left field, but he may profile best at first base. He certainly has the power expected from the position. Roache carries risk both because of his injury and his issues versus breaking balls, but his power upside may very well be worth it.

I see the Rangers taking the risk on Davis. Power is something the Rangers have plenty of while Davis’ speed is something you don’t find too often.

The Pick: D.J. Davis, OF, Stone High School, MS

30th Overall: New York Yankees

The Yankees are a pick that consistently drafts high school players in the first round (with Andrew Brackman being an unfortunate exception) and while they have mostly drafted position players, the indications are that the Yankees are going to go with a pitcher. The Yankees feature a good big league rotation and a couple of talented pitching prospects in Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. But they’re mysteriously lacking upper-echelon pitching prospects in the lower minors and they could help plug that here. I think Eflin is a good fit because the Yankees can afford to let him take his time getting healthy and developing and his upside is well worth it.

The Pick: Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS, FL

31st Overall: Boston Red Sox

With their second first round pick, the Red Sox have an opportunity to go for pure upside. And that player is Roache. If he can recover well from his wrist surgery and learn to hit breaking balls, he could make the Red Sox lineup even scarier with another topflight power bat. The Red Sox have seen their outfield depth totally collapse, and while Roache is not a player who will move particularly quickly through the minor leagues, he has the ability to give the Red Sox an upper-echelon power bat in left field moving forward.

The Pick: Victor Roache

That’s it for our mock draft. The real thing is tonight and we’ll get to see how right and how wrong I am. It should be a fun experience as we get at least a slight glimpse into the future of Major League Baseball. Enjoy tonight.