2012 MLB Draft: Twins Select Byron Buxton 2nd Overall

The Houston Astros threw everyone a bit of a curveball with their selection of Carlos Correa 1st overall. It wasn’t a complete shocker but it certainly caught plenty of people off-guard. Minnesota however quickly restored order to things by nabbing Appling County High School OF Byron Buxton 2nd overall. Dubbed this draft’s version of Kansas HS OF Bubba Starling – who went to the Royals 5th overall – Buxton was regarded by most sources as the top talent available in the draft.

The mock drafts agreed. In fact of the 21 mocks published in the last week, and included in the 2012 MLB Mock Draft Database, 13 of them had the Georgia native linked to the Twins and another seven likely would have drawn the same conclusion were it not for the fact that they had the Astros taking him 1st overall. Robbie Knopf had Buxton going to the Twins in the latest S2S mock that was published this morning.

Only one source had the Twins passing on Buxton, but that thought never crossed my mind. The thing is, the Minnesota Twins have a long standing love affair with athletic high school outfielders, and when they’ve popped on one in the first round the recent results have been fairly positive. Ben Revere in 2007 and Denard Span in 2002 have proven that they are capable of success at the major league level. 2008 1st rounder, Aaron Hicks, hasn’t put it all together yet but he’s just 22 and is holding his own in Double-A this season. While it’s “the thing to do these days,” it’s far too early to give up on him. Of course 1999 1st rounder, B.J. Garbe didn’t work out so well … so there’s that.

The Stuff:

Byron Buxton is ultra talented and his skill set is multifaceted. You don’t need to look very hard to find sources that look at the latest Twins draft pick and see a potential superstar in the making. In Baseball America’s recent 2012 Draft Preview they did their usual best tools selections and Buxton’s name appeared frequently in the High School portion of the categories. Here are the categories and rankings.

Best Athlete: 1st
Best Pure Hitter: 1st
Best Power Hitter: 3rd
Fastest Runner: 2nd
Best Arm: 2nd
Best Defensive Player: 2nd

Buxton failed to crack the top-3 in only two applicable categories, “Best Strike Zone Judgement” and “Closest to the Majors.” The rest of the package makes him a legitimate five-tool talent. While he’s been called this year’s Bubba Starling, Byron’s bat is more advanced at this point than Starling’s. Comparisons lend themselves to hyperbole, but Buxton often gets compared to guys like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen.

The Future:

With an earlier signing deadline, July 13th thanks to the new CBA, we should see Buxton get into rookie ball action this summer after he signs. Given that Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks – their most recent premium talents – all played at least 40 games in the Gulf Coast League before advancing the following season that seems like the most likely path for Buxton to take.

Like most premium high school outfielders, Buxton is going to take a while to develop and the Twins typically take their time with their prospects moving them methodically to ensure they adapt and find sustained success at each level. I’d anticipate Byron will open and stay in the GCL this season. His 2013 starting point will most likely be Elizabethton (Appy League) as it was for Sano and Rosario. They did jump Hicks from the GCL to Midwest League Beloit so they’re not adverse to that move but Aaron’s struggles with that course of action may cause the front office to be a little more hesitant to rush their potential superstar.

Buxton already utilizes his speed effectively in all facets of the game and his arm and overall defensive skill-set are well established for a player his age. Hit power does not show up in games presently but he is capable of putting on a show in batting practice and the expectation is that as his bat advances, the power will slowly materialize. There are few if any concerns about his swing path, hitting mechanics and bat speed so the bulk of his work will come with respect to his approach and plate discipline.

He has not spent a lot of time playing against elite competition so how he will adapt to professional ball and more advanced pitching remains a bit of an unknown, but nothing in his game stands out as a red flag in this regard. He just needs to log at bats and prove he’s up to the challenge.

Conclusion:

There is no doubt that the Twins have a major need for talented young arms to restock their rotation, but they are also in need of elite level talent regardless of position. Buxton is an elite level talent and when stacked up against the pitching prospects available this wasn’t a tough decision to make, though we can all expect Minnesota to go pitching heavy in following rounds.

Whether or not he becomes the next Matt Kemp, an average major league starter or fails to reach the big leauges, the Minnesota Twins picked the best player available in the draft regardless of organizational need and that is always the right pick to make.

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