The Plight of A Flyball Pitcher: Breaking Down A.J. Cole’s 2012 Struggles

This past offseason, when the Oakland Athletics made the deal sending Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals, even though Gonzalez is an excellent pitcher, the consensus was that the Athletics had won the trade. One of the principle reasons for that was A.J. Cole.

A.J. Cole has true frontline starter stuff. Still projectable at 6’4″, 180, the 20 year old Cole throws in the mid-90’s with his fastball that he controls extremely well. It features more armside run as opposed to sink, but it’s still a great swing-and-miss pitch. His second pitch is an 11-to-5 spike curveball, a pitch that ranges from the high-70’s to low 80’s in velocity, that Cole throws out of the same arm slot as his fastball. Cole’s curveball gets criticized because it isn’t a pitch with great depth, but it features sharp break almost like a slider (that’s why it’s called a “spike” curveball) and Cole does a very good job throwing it for strikes on both sides of the plate. His third pitch is a changeup that he continues to work on. Cole’s combination of velocity and present control of his fastball have made him a very intriguing prospect for a while, and his curveball may not the most majestic curve you’ve ever seen, but it plays as a second plus pitch thanks to once again, his tremendous control of it. (Cole’s control is in sharp contrast to the pitcher he was traded for, Gio Gonzalez.) Cole needs room to grow- physically, in terms of command (his ability to not just throw strikes with his pitches, but hit precise targets), and in terms of his changeup. Cole’s current deficiencies were exposed after he was promoted into the hitter-friendly High-A California League to begin 2012.

Back on New Year’s Day, I talked about Cole’s relative struggles in 2011 in the South Atlantic League at the Low-A level, as he posted a 4.04 ERA despite a 10.9 K/9, a 2.4 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9, leading to a 2.53 FIP. Other than poor defense, one of the reasons I gave for the large disparity between Cole’s ERA and FIP was that because of his outstanding command, Cole threw too many pitches over the plate, leading to hard-hit balls when he missed up in the zone. Sometimes you have to purposely throw pitches out of the zone to get hitters to chase, and Cole was unable to do that consistently. Cole’s control, at least for the time being, has made him a flyball pitcher. His fastball, while being a great pitch, does not feature a ton of sink, and when he misses up in the zone with it, he’ll allow a lot of flyballs and too many line drives as well. That was the case in Low-A, and that was even more true as Cole moved up to the hitters’ ballparks of the California League.

In 8 starts with the Athletics’ High-A affiliate, the Stockton Ports, Cole struggled like he never had before. He went 0-7 with a 7.82 ERA in 8 starts and 38 IP. Cole’s strikeout rate fell to 7.1 per 9 innings, but he still posted a 2.4 BB/9, right in line with his 2011 numbers. The big difference was in terms of home runs allowed: Cole allowed 7 homers, a 1.7 HR/9. Cole allowed more homers in those 8 starts than he did in 18 starts and 2 relief appearances in 2011. And although Cole continued to miss up in the zone, and the more advanced hitters made him pay. The A’s promptly sent Cole back down to Low-A, this time to the Burlington Bees in the Midwest League, and he basically picked up right where he left off in 2011, posting a 10.2 K/9, a 2.0 BB/9, and a 0.7 HR/9, a 2.54 FIP compared to his 2.53 FIP above. If Cole has put up such impressive peripherals at Low-A, why did he struggle so acutely at High-A?

The more advanced hitters you face, the more they’ll take advantage of your mistakes. The scary thing about Cole’s struggles in 2012 in the Cal League is that he wasn’t completely unlucky to put up such bad numbers. The 7.82 ERA was way too high and his strand rate was just 37.6%, well below the league rate of 54.9%. (Keep in mind that the MLB average strand rate is around 72%. Such a low strand rate in the California League tells you just how much of a hitter’s league it is.) But his 4.99 FIP was well above his 3.90 xFIP using the data at Minor League Central. But looking his his HR/OFB% (home runs divided by flyballs to the outfield) mark of 12.7% it’s really not much higher than the average mark of 10.9%. And then you have to look at his overall batted ball tendencies. Counting line drives, 63% of the batted balls that Cole allowed were hit in the air compared to the league average of 55.4%. He allowed a 39.9% flyballs to the outfield percentage compared to the 30.7% league average. Cole just allowed hit after hit and a lot of them were hit hard.

A.J. Cole has to find ways to force weaker contact. If he can command his pitches better down in the zone, that will certainly help matters. But the big pitch for him may be his changeup. Cole’s changeup has shown flashes of good sink, but he has never been able to control it consistently. If Cole can have a pitch that he can use to consistently force groundballs, it will help him escape jams and it will make his fastball-curveball combination better because hitters would have something else to think about. Cole has a lot more development that he needs to do as a pitcher. It was especially difficult for him going from a pitcher’s league in the South Atlantic League to a hitter’s league in the California League. Maybe going to a more neutral High-A league like the Florida State League or the Carolina League (where the Nationals have their affiliate) would have helped ease him into the level and make the necessary adjustments. I would expect the A’s to keep Cole in Low-A at least most of the remainder of the season to continue to work on his command and changeup and if he continues to put up dominating peripherals, I wouldn’t be shocked if in 2013 they skipped him over the California League up to Midland in the Double-A Texas League, where he would probably spend a couple of seasons continuing to figure himself out as a pitcher.

A.J. Cole has the repertoire to be an upper-echelon starter in the big leagues someday. Flyball pitchers can succeed and even dominate, with Jered Weaver and Matt Cain serving as two prime examples. Cole’s 2012 struggles may be just a bump in the road. His upside hasn’t changed at all even as he has struggled. Whether he can ever overcome his struggles with command and his changeup will determine whether he can ever seize his upside and become the pitcher he has the chance to be.