Will Phillies’ Lee be in Philadelphia by season’s end?

It’s not all that often a lefty pitcher of Cliff Lee‘s pedigree is dangled in front of teams. However, the Philidephia Phillies are in a peculiar situation at the moment. On one side of the coin, the club is 7.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and eight games back in the all-too-early Wild Card standings. As the Tampa Bay Rays showed the baseball world in 2011, teams can come back from 7.5 games back and make the playoffs, so giving up on the season this early may not be the best idea. Giving Lee up to the highest bidder, might actually make the team better … in the long run.

Lee could be wearing another uniform by season’s end, but it’ll cost a ton. (Image: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

Saying that though, nothing is ever that easy in Philly, right? Lee is the team’s greatest bargaining chip at the moment and is currently pitching to a 2.34 ERA (2.83 FIP) with good peripherals (7.03 K/9 and 1.45 BB/9). Those numbers make every team salivate with aspirations of adding him to their rotation. But, he won’t come cheap, money- or prospects-wise.

The southpaw is currently in the third year of a five-year, $120 million contract ($24 million average annual value), which includes a $27.5 million club option for the 2016 season. In order for that to kick in, however, he’ll need to meet very attainable criteria (not on DL at the end of 2015 and pitches 400 innings combined over 2014 and 2015). Because Lee has a no-trade clause to 21 teams, the trading partner will likely need to pony up some extra cash for him to drop that, which is the status quo for deals of this caliber. As you can already see, he’s becoming expensive even before prospects are discussed.

So who are the buyers? As Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe wrote, the Red Sox, Orioles, Indians, Angels, and Rangers are all potential suitors, but the Dodgers and Yankees are likely on that list as well. Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro Jr., has some options as to which way he wants to go, but the Rangers and Red Sox have the best prospects with the likes of Mike Olt (Rangers), Xander Bogaerts or Allen Webster (Red Sox) potentially headlining a trade package. Meanwhile, the Orioles don’t have much down on the farm outside Jonathan Shoop and Dylan Bundy (who is currently on the mend).

Even with his sparkling numbers this year, teams should be somewhat cautious acquiring Lee. Currently, hitters own a .259 BABIP against him and if that number creeps back up into his normal range (.290-.300), his numbers will be negatively impacted by it. It’s also a tad troublesome that only ~39% of balls in play have been hit on the ground this year after spending the past five seasons in the 41-45% range. Again, it’s still early in the season, so small sample size is still in effect.

Overall though, it’s difficult to find too many holes for a guy who pitches 200+ innings around a 3.00 ERA. At age 34, and with two and a half (potentially three and a half) seasons left on his current contract, the Phillies might need to eat some of it if they want a great prospect package in return. Teams will likely look at age as a main reason to drive down the price, but they’ll still need to give up a ton in order to garner Lee’s services.