2013 MLB All-Star Game: Top 5 Candidates To Start For the National League

May 7, 2013; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey (33) pitches against the Chicago White Sox with a bloody nose during the first inning of a game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Every year is turning into the “year of the pitcher.” A no-hitter has yet to be tossed, but the amount of quality starting pitchers having good seasons is seemingly endless, especially in the National League.

The 2013 All-Star Game, which travels to Citi Field on July 16, is less than a month away. Yet, there’s no clear runaway to start the game for the NL. There’s Matt Harvey, of course. But there are also plenty of others that are breathing down his neck.

Fortunately, I’m not Bruce Bochy. I won’t have to name the starter. Perhaps an obvious pick emerges before the All-Star break, but as of now, the picture is a bit foggy.

Let’s take a look at the Top 5 candidates to start the All-Star Game for the NL:

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

June 23, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets pitcher Matt Harvey (33) delivers to the plate during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Harvey seems like the obvious choice, and for good reason.

The Mets’ right-hander leads the NL in ERA (2.05) and FIP (2.01). Very rarely is a pitcher’s FIP lower than his actual ERA. But Harvey’s been economical in the walks department, and his arsenal of off-speed weapons speaks for itself in the strikeouts department.

There are conceivably a slew of other stats that favor Harvey. I’ll list a few more for your pleasure: he’s second in WAR (3.9), first in WHIP (0.88), first in Average Game Score (66.9) and first in K% (28.9 percent). As you drool over those, it’s worth mentioning that his average 95.6 MPH fastball leads baseball, as he recently surpassed Stephen Strasburg for the top spot (70 innings minimum)

The trend is clear. You could go on and on. The point: Harvey leads the primary categories, and more. Given that the All-Star Game is in New York at Citi Field, or Harvey’s home, it’d only be ideal for him to start for the NL. And the numbers, well, nab him as the current favorite.

Adam Wainwright, St.Louis Cardinals

Jun 13, 2013; Flushing, NY,USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Had you asked about a week ago, Wainwright probably would’ve been the favorite. However, the Chicago Cubs touched him up for four runs on June 18, and his ERA rose to 2.37. A solid outing against the Texas Rangers on Sunday then dropped it to 2.31.

So yes, a 2.31 ERA actually earns Wainwright a demotion. He can blame Matt Harvey for that. They’re basically 1A and 1B anyway.

As much of the spotlight that Harvey absorbs, his brilliance can’t takeaway from Wainwright.

Wainwright leads the NL in WAR, he has the lowest BB/9 and his FIP (2.01) is just a tick off Harvey’s 2.00 mark. They aren’t on different planets, after all.

Wainwright’s stuff has also been tremendous, sporting an O-Swing% 37.5 percent–O-Swing% percentage essentially measures how many pitches a batter chases outside of the strike zone. In Wainwright’s case, he’s drawing lots of whiffs, mainly on his curveball, which, per 100 pitches, is the fourth-best in the NL, per FanGraphs.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 21, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) looks in for a sign during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Kershaw has the third-lowest ERA (2.08) in the NL, but he’s just a game above .500–not that wins matter.

Much like Harvey and Wainwright, you could go and on about his stats. He’s fourth in FIP (2.67), fourth in WHIP (0.96), fifth in K%, first in innings pitched (121.1) and fourth in WAR (3.1). There you have the lowdown, which is quite good, mind you.

Stuff-wise, only one NL pitcher boasts a better curveball than Kershaw. His name is Jhoulys Chacin, who’s dropping the old Uncle Charlie in the thin Colorado air–quite impressive.

Further, only two others have better fastballs than Kershaw–Cliff Lee, who just might make an appearance on this list shortly, and Harvey. To clarify, we’re talking about effectiveness, not velocity.

Kershaw has been good. Harvey and Wainwright have both been slightly better, though–with the emphasis on slightly.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

June 24, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee (33) throws during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies have been a “meh” team this year, showing flashes of life and flashes of 2012. Their bullpen has scuffled, and their offense has caused Charlie Manuel to burst. But Cliff Lee has been quite the opposite of “meh,” however. And he’s surely not causing his manager to burst.

At 34 years old, Lee is amid one his better seasons as a pro. ERA-wise, his 2.51 ERA isn’t a career-best mark, but his 2.52 FIP is a career-best. His ERA ranks ninth in the NL, his FIP ranks third and his WAR (3.4) also ranks third.

With the numbers above, you’d assume Lee would be ranked higher, right?

It’s close. I’ll admit that. However, Lee’s strikeout numbers (7.99 K/9) put him a small step below tier one. It’s nitpicking, yes, but there really isn’t an alternative.