AL Central Second-Half Preview
Jul 16, 2013; Flushing, NY, USA; American League pitcher Max Scherzer (37) of the Detroit Tigers throws a pitch in the first inning in the 2013 All Star Game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The American League Central division looks to be a two-team race, but with this division, who knows?
Entering the second half of the MLB season following the All-Star break, the Detroit Tigers lead the Central by 1.5 games over the Cleveland Indians.
From there, it is the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox all playing catch-up following dismal starts to their season.
What has been more surprising this season for the Central? Is it how the Tigers, though leading, are up by less than two games? Is it that the Cleveland Indians are in second place, as they were somewhat overlooked at the start of the season?
What about the hyped Royals, being average in a below average division? Or the Twins, not really being that much improved over last season at this point? Then there are the White Sox … battled for the division last season and now are in last place.
Though this may not be the best division in baseball, it could be the closest in either league come September if the Tigers don’t play up to their superstar potential or if others can play up to their hype or raise their expectations in the final months of the regular season. It should be exciting to watch.
With that said, let’s take an individual look at each team in the Central and see what they have to look forward to in the dog days of summer.
DETROIT TIGERS
(52-42)
July 12, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter (48) at bat against the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
If you would have told me at the beginning of the season the Tigers would be just 10 games over the .500 mark come the all-star break, I would have probably laughed you out of the room. But alas, here we are getting ready to start the second half of the season, and here are the Tigers just 10 games over the .500 mark with a 1.5 game lead over the Cleveland Indians.
They are 29-19 at home and just 23-23 on the road, and get this … they are the only team in their division without a losing mark away from their home field.
Detroit enters the weekend with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games and an overall winning percentage of .533, as they’ve scored 477 runs and allowed 388.
With all that said, they rank (as a team) second in runs scored in all of baseball, first in batting average (.281), second in on-base percentage (.348) and third in slugging percentage at .437.
What I like about this team is their lineup … Miguel Cabrera (.365 BA, 30 home runs, 95 RBIs, .458 OBP), Prince Fielder (.267 BA, 16 HR, 69 RBIs, .363 OBP), Victor Martinez (.258 BA, 8 HR, 50 RBIs, .314 OBP) and Torii Hunter (.315 BA, 7 HR, 44 RBIs, .352 BA), for starters.
Then there are Alex Avila at catcher, Austin Jackson in centerfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. That lineup has everything a team needs, and for that reason alone, I see them winning the division by at least eight games, if not more.
I haven’t even spoke about the pitching, with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander leading the staff. Scherzer has a 3.19 ERA with a 13-1 overall mark, winning his first 13 games of the year. His 152 strikeouts stand out, and his WHIP is just 0.98 in 19 starts (129.2 IP).
Verlander probably won’t be winning another CY Young Award this season, as his ERA is a tad higher than his career average, at 3.50 compared to a career average of 3.41. He has 125 strikeouts in 20 starts (126.0 IP) with a WHIP of 1.34.
If this team can get all hot at the same time, there is no hope for the rest of the division, but if they don’t, …well, it could be like last season all over again with a lesser team challenging for the playoff spot from the Central.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
(51-44)
Jul 16, 2013; Flushing, NY, USA; American League infielder Jason Kipnis (22) of the Cleveland Indians hits a RBI double in the 8th inning in the 2013 All Star Game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
If this club had Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn on the mound and Willie Mays Hayes running around the bases, I’d give the Cleveland Indians a better shot at overtaking the Tigers at the top of the division in the second half of the season.
But this isn’t a movie, though I must write I’m more than impressed with where the Indians stand right now in the division, because at the start of the season, I wouldn’t have given this team a chance to get past third place.
The Tribe is seven games over the .500 mark (.553 PCT) with a 30-19 home record but are four games under the .500 plateau at 21-25 away from the former “Jake.”
Cleveland does rank in the Top 10 in runs scored (5th, 454), on-base percentage (4th, .330) and slugging percentage (8th, .418), and they are 11th in BA at .258.
Still, those numbers put them in second place in a division that isn’t the greatest in baseball, with Jason Kipnis batting .301 for a team-high (also the team leader in RBIs with 57, OBP .383 and hits at 96), and Mark Reynolds leading with 15 home runs, so from the looks of the numbers, this team doesn’t win with power.
I really do enjoy watching Justin Masterson pitch a game. He leads the Tribe with 10 wins, a 3.72 ERA and 137 strikeouts. Masterson is the only Indians pitcher to have over 100 innings this season (135.1), which is somewhat alarming, but Ubaldo Jimenez follows with 98.2 IP, along with Corey Kluber at 95.0.
My thoughts on this club are they are a year or so away from really being a consistent contender in not only the Central, but the AL in general. I see this club no worse than third, but no better than second, at the conclusion of the season.
For this team to get past the Tigers, I think it is fair to say they need a little more from their starting pitching, as the next in wins to Masterson is a tie at seven wins in Jimenez and Kluber and Scott Kazmir with five. It also wouldn’t hurt for the starters to lower the ERA a tad, either.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
(43-49)
Jul 16, 2013; Flushing, NY, USA; American League pitcher Greg Holland (56) of the Kansas City Royals throws a pitch in the 7th inning in the 2013 All Star Game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
At the start of the year, I thought this team was a little better than a team that sits at six games under .500 to open the second half of the season.
The Royals have their high points, don’t get me wrong, but it’s the same thing every year – hovering in the bottom three teams in the division –with the Royals, and I can see them fighting their way to second place in the Central, but no farther than that.
They’ll open the second half with a task where they can prove me right or wrong in facing the Central-leading Tigers.
KC ranks 14th in BA in MLB at .256 as a team, but other than that, their numbers don’t impress much with 365 runs (24th), an OBP of .311 (19th) and a slugging percentage of .375, good for the 28th spot in baseball.
They are average at home at 22-22 and worse on the road at 21-27, as they have a negative run differential at -8, compared to the Tigers at +89 and the Indians (+25).
Eric Hosmer leads the Royals at the plate with a .285 BA and nine home runs, with Alex Gordon leading with a team-high 49 RBIs and 99 hits. Billy Butler has the high in OBP at .371.
One plus I see for the Royals is a pitcher named Greg Holland. After finding out more about him after I omitted him from my AL All-Star Snub List, I’ve come to enjoy Holland and his many accomplishments. He has an ERA of 1.80 with 22 saves and 60 strikeouts in just 35 innings (36 appearances).
Again, my outlook for the Royals is they could make a run at the Indians, and they should make a run at them for the second-place spot, but if they don’t, I wouldn’t be surprised. Let’s just say, I’d be more surprised if they did make a run in this division.
MINNESOTA TWINS
(39-53)
Jul 14, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Glen Perkins (15) and catcher Joe Mauer (7) celebrate the win against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Twins won 10-4. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Sadly for baseball, but a positive for the Minnesota Twins, is the second half of the season is beginning and having 39 wins doesn’t put them as the worst team in the division or the worst team in the AL.
Their season thus far has been pretty forgettable, right? Are they getting any better? I haven’t seen much of an improvement, but I haven’t watched every game of the Twins this season, either.
Having a .424 winning percentage puts the Twins fourth in the Central, two games better than the last-place White Sox. The Twins are below average at home (21-23) and even worse away when traveling away from Target Field at 18-30.
Minnesota’s run differential would be described as horrendous, but that’s too strong compared to some other teams in baseball, at -48 (379-427). On a positive, they’ve won their past two games played, but on a negative, they are 3-7 in their past 10 games as they trail the Tigers by 12 games.
Their numbers are underwhelming as a team, as they are 16th in runs (379), 20th in BA (.245), 15th in on-base percentage (.316) and 22nd in slugging (.386).
A very big plus for Minnesota is Joe Mauer, with the catcher hitting .320 for a team-high with 113 hits and a .402 OBP, both also leading the team. Justin Morneau has a team-high 52 RBIs, and Josh Willingham has the team home run lead at 10.
I know wins for a pitcher will be high or low depending on how well the team is playing as a whole … but the team lead in pitching wins for the Twins is Kevin Correia at six. He stands at 6-6 overall with a team-best 4.23 ERA and 62 strikeouts.
Glen Perkins at closer is a nice standout from this team with 21 saves.
I see Minnesota staying where they are in the division in fourth. They could fall down to fifth place, but that would take the White Sox winning more than once or twice a week. Minnesota has a two-game lead.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(37-55)
Jul 16, 2013; Flushing, NY, USA; American League pitcher Chris Sale (49) of the Chicago White Sox tosses to first base for an out against the National League during the 2013 All Star Game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago has went from being in second place last year at season’s end to being in the final spot of the standings, looking up at a 14-game deficit to the Tigers in the Central.
The Sox’s season as being contenders for a division championship went away a month or so ago, it seems, and from the looks of things, they will be sellers once the trade deadline gets even closer than it already is.
Chicago is barely over .400 in winning percentage (.402) and have a -60 run differential this season, the fifth worst in baseball. They have losing records at home and on the road at 19-21 (home) and 18-34 (road), respectively.
Get this, the Southsiders rank in the Top 20 in one major offensive category: batting average at .249, good enough for 19th place.
What’s worse is that of 30 MLB teams, they are 29th overall in runs scored at 345, ahead of just the lowly Miami Marlins (306).
Even worse is their highest batting average for a player who qualifies to lead the stat is Alexei Ramirez at, gulp, .286. Adam Dunn leads the team in home runs (24) and RBIs (60), while Ramirez also has the most hits with 106.
The bright spot of the team is pitching. Chris Sale, though 6-8 on the year, has an ERA of 2.85 with 131 strikeouts. Plus, for good measure, Sale was the winning pitcher in the All-Star Game with two scoreless innings.
Addison Reed has done well as closer with 24 saves, and Jesse Crain (though on the DL) has 19 holds.
I’ve watched many, many White Sox games this season – they are a big part of my summer viewing – and with that said, I don’t see this team winning the division or going further than a possible fourth-place finish this season, as they are soon to be sellers at the trade deadline, in hopes to become a better baseball team in future seasons.