MLB: Revealing the American League East’s 4 Best Starting Pitchers
Aug 3, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher David Price (14) throws a pitch during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the San Francisco Giants 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The American League East has some quality starters. Not a ton, but a good handful.
The Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees all have respectable-to-good rotations. Boston now stands above all with the addition of Jake Peavy.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays both have rotation ERAs north of 4.60, naturally earning them both bottom-five ranks in baseball.
The Orioles traded for Bud Norris at the trade deadline, but they still lack a No. 1 starter (Wei-Yin Chen is approaching that level). Toronto, on the other hand, has suffered through a season of underachieving-type performances from Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle.
But, let’s take a look at four individuals who are thriving, and thus represent the AL East’s best pitchers.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Aug. 6, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher David Price sits in the dugout against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Price has been a horse of two different colors, one being decent, the other being, well, dominant, plus-more.
If you can’t wrap your head around that, I turn you to the stats:
April 2-May 15: 55 IP, 65 Hits, 14 BB, 49 K’s, 5.24 ERA
July 2- August 3: 57.1 IP, 38 Hits, 1 BB, 40 K’s, 1.57 ERA
Now you should being seeing the disparity. It’s pretty big. Throw the two time periods together and you get a 3.36 ERA, which is solid, but not “David Price solid,” if that makes sense.
The quandary with Price has been his velocity, or lack of. FanGraphs had his velocity at 95.5 mph in 2012, but in 2013, that’s dipped to a cool 93.3 mph. Brooks Baseball’s numbers are a tad different number-wise, but there’s still a two mile-per-hour difference.
Brooks Baseball provides us with his month-by-month velocity readings:
April: 94.3
May: 94.5
July: 94.8
August: 93.5
Price has been excellent since July, but his fastball hasn’t had its normal pop. The difference has been the effectiveness of his other pitches, which have yielded numbers hovering the Mendoza Line since he came off the DL.
The velocity talk aside, Price is mustering another solid year after winning the AL Cy Young award last year. There are a handful of pitchers in the AL East with better ERAs, better strikeout rates and what not, but it’s hard not to look at Price’s latest stretch and deem him anything less than the AL East’s best.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
June 2, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) pitches against the New York Yankees during the second inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports
Technically, Buchholz isn’t qualified to be in consideration for the ERA title (and many more stats, obviously) due to a shoulder injury that has turned a good, perhaps Cy Young-like season into one that has been destroyed by an injury.
The specifics are pretty simple: Buchholz has been on the DL since June 9 with shoulder problems. An injury initially deemed as something short of serious has indeed become serious, and the Red Sox made that clear last week when they traded for Jake Peavy as protection just in case Buchholz doesn’t return. Of course that’s the worst possible case.
However, Boston received some very good news Tuesday. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Buchholz threw a 27-pitch bullpen before Boston took on the Houston Astros. The results were reportedly positive, as Buchholz used the phrase “night and day” to describe his session–in the good way, obviously.
So, a return does indeed seem to be in the cards.
And the Red Sox would like nothing more. The right-hander had a 1.71 ERA before going on the DL. He was striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings against a career-low 3.1 walks per nine, and with a solid FIP and xFIP, his 2.9 WAR still stands as the 11th-best mark in the AL despite his lengthy absence. Forgetting the fluff, he was indeed very, very good.
Buchholz’s innings total is a bit low, but that isn’t enough to knock him off this list.
Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
Jul 12, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (18) pitches during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Speaking of free agents that have bolstered their stock… Kuroda is indeed on that slim list. If it wasn’t for his age (he will turn 39 in February), he’d be in line for a sparkly contract this offseason. Instead, he will likely have to settle for a little less, at least in the years department.
The basis of Kuroda’s success has been his consistency. He’s given up more than three runs just three times, equating to a 2.45 ERA. That’s fifth in baseball and first in the AL East among qualified starters. He also walks just 1.7 batters per nine innings, which is the ninth lowest mark in baseball. Throw it all together and you get the AL East’s best WAR (3.2).
The one area that partially disdains his ERA are his low strikeout numbers (6.7 K/9 rate). Everyone seemingly loves the strikeout. They’re flashy. They have the “wow effect.” Pretty much phrases of that variety.
Kuroda’s approach doesn’t garner the punchouts, though, and his FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage) is thus about a full run higher than his ERA–FIP measures only what a pitcher can control (walks, home runs, strikeouts).
Now for a translation: He’s efficient and effective. His 2013 campaign also screams “underrated.” One can’t ask for much more.
John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
Jul 31, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher John Lackey (41) reacts during the third inning against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Yes, John Lackey. The same John Lackey that wasn’t too liked in Boston not too long ago. That John Lackey. Any confusion?
In all seriousness, though, Lackey has recovered from Tommy John Surgery quite well. His 3.21 ERA is his lowest since 2007 (second-best overall), and he’s striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings, something he hasn’t done since way back in 2005. The phrase “turning the clock back” fits well here.
You could argue that the 35-year-old John Lackey has been better the 2007 version of John Lackey, who finished third in Cy Young Voting.
It would be a tough argument to win, though. The 2007 Lackey boasted the AL’s best ERA (3.01) and ERA+ (150).
The 2013 Lackey through 126 innings: 3.21 ERA, 131 ERA+, 1.9 BB/9 (better than 2007) and 8.4 K/9 (better than 2007).
So it’s close. We’d have to start poking at minor things to get a better idea of which version of Lackey was better, but that’s a story for another day.
But the area where he’s clearly been better has been in the “stuff” department. His O-Swing%–measures how many pitches a batter swings at that are outside of the zone–of 35 percent is a career high (seventh-best in baseball), and his SwSr%–another factor of a pitcher’s overall nastiness–is his best mark since 2005 and second best of his career.
If you haven’t been paying a ton of attention, Lackey’s resurgence probably surfaces as a surprise. However, his ERA is second to only Kuroda, his xFIP (adjusted for home runs) is first, his K/9 is third and his WAR is also third.
Yes, that John Lackey.