Prospect Graduation: Julio Teheran

Aug 30, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran (49) pitches against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves is another young pitching prospect who has graduated in 2013 and is getting his feet wet with playoff experience. Teheran, 22, has had tastes of the major leagues since making his big league debut in 2011 but finally put together a complete season in the show this year. Like Sonny Gray, Teheran had a poor year in 2012 that resulted in his losing ground in some prospect rankings; Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 52nd going into 2013 after having him ranked fifth in 2012 and we had him at #70 before the season. The news wasn’t all bad as Minor League Ball‘s mid-season revision had him at #28 Fangraphs’ and Marc Hulet had him ranked at #20 before the season (and number-one for the Braves). Baseball America also had him as the number-one prospect for the Braves, but dropped him from the number-five overall prospect in 2012 to #44 in 2013. Likewise, MLB.com dropped him from #4 to #31.

Apparently, much of Tehran’s success in the majors this year after a lackluster 2012 in Triple-A was the addition and polishing of a slider that complemented his solid fastball. Teheran also went back to more natural mechanics after the Braves acknowledged that his difficult 2012 was probably do to changes the club made (as reported by Alex Remington at Fangraphs). Teheran relies on those two pitches primarily, throwing a four- or two-seam fastball about 64% of the time and his slider between 17% and 20% of the time (depending on whether you go by Fangraphs or Brooks Baseball). The slider gets the most swings and misses (Brooks Baseball tracks it at just over 18%) while his changeup is also quite effective in that regard.

Teheran, an international free agent out of Columbia who signed in 2007, threw 131 innings in Triple-A for the Gwinnett Braves in 2012, posting a 5.08 ERA (with a still fairly poor 4.83 FIP), a 1.44 WHIP and, most concerning, the lowest strikeout rate of his career (outside of his brief major league call-ups) at 16.8% and a higher-than-usual walk rate at 7.5%. Back to his old mechanics and armed with the slider, Teheran had an outstanding rookie campaign for the Braves in 2013, throwing 185 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, bringing his K% back up to 22% and his walk rate back down to 5.8%. Teheran placed 15th in the National League in ERA and 18th in the NL in strikeouts, solidifying his status as an up-and-coming stud pitcher.

Teheran is another case of a prospect yo-yo-ing up and down in analysts eyes when they compile their top-prospect lists year after year. A bad year causes writers to promote who’s hot and demote who isn’t necessarily coming off a good season. While some evaluators clearly only went by the numbers, others, like Marc Hulet, cite scouts and insiders who explained why prospects’ performance fell off. Hulet remained high on Teheran after speaking to someone who had seen him pitch in Winter Ball before compiling his pre-2013 list.

Teheran won’t be back on our prospect list for 2014. Despite getting lit up by the Dodgers on Sunday night, Teheran is only 22 and has a very bright future for the Braves.