San Diego Padres 2014 Top 15 Prospects

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres are in one of the more difficult divisions in baseball, and are in one of the smallest markets in the division. This combination means they will have to rely a lot on a healthy farm system to stay competitive. Their farm system is pretty much middle-of-the-road, but the top of it is certainly impressive. They have plenty of guys that will make an impact in some role in the big leagues, but the franchise players may be lacking. Oh, and they have arguably the least intimidating mascot in all of baseball with their new Triple-A club.

Triple-A: El Paso Chihuahuas (Pacific Coast League)
Double-A: San Antonio Missions (Texas League)
High-A: Lake Elsinore Storm (California League)
Low-A: Fort Wayne Tin Caps (Midwest League)
Short-Season A: Eugene Emeralds (Northwest League)
Complex-Rookie: AZL Padres (Arizona League), DSL Padres (Dominican Summer League)

#15

Adys Portillo – RHP
Date of Birth: December 20, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’2″/235 lbs.
Acquired: International Free Agent

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Portillo struggled with injuries in 2013, limiting him to only three starts, and costing him a spot on the 40-man roster.  While his only three starts came in Low-A in 2013, he did reach Double-A in 2012. His fastball has been clocked in the triple digits, but time will tell if he gets back there.  His curve is above average with good break and his change won’t be anything special, but it can play in the higher levels.  If he can limit his walks, he could end up in the rotation someday, but his stuff will probably play better in the bullpen.

2014 Prognosis: He will have to prove his health and show his fastball is back this spring, but if he does, he can kick off the year  in Double-A. It will be a season to re-establish his value for Portillo, but he could easily shoot up the prospect list for 2015.

#14

Yeison Asencio – OF
Date of Birth: November 14, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’1″/225 lbs.
Acquired: International Free Agent

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: A late arrival to the Minor Leagues out of the Dominican Republic, making Dominican Summer League debut at age 20, Asencio has had a bit of an uphill struggle to be taken seriously as a prospect.  He doesn’t have any tools that really jump out at you, but he is an all-around baseball player.  He doesn’t have home run power, but he has no problem lining the ball into the gap for a double.  His arm won’t scare any baserunners, but it is strong enough to be an above average defender in right field.  He is probably best suited as a fourth outfielder someday, but if he needs to hold down a starting job for a time, he won’t kill a lineup.

2014 Prognosis: Asencio has been added to the 40-man roster, and could start the season at Triple-A. The Padres have plenty of outfield depth, but a September call-up is not out of the question.

#13

Reymond Fuentes – OF
Date of Birth: February 12, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’/160 lbs.
Acquired: 2010, via trade with Boston Red Sox

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: The third piece the Padres received in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and a piece that has largely been overlooked.  Fuentes is the cousin of Carlos Beltran, and plays the game much the same way, just on a lower level.  He can flash impressive defense in center, and can really move when he gets on the bases, but that can be a struggle at times.  His pitch recognition still needs to improve, but when he makes contact, he can make it count.  He is never going to be a home run hitter, but he is a left handed hitter that can put the ball in the gap and rack up the doubles and triples.

2014 Prognosis: The Padres outfield is pretty well set for opening day, but it does feature guys that have proven an inability to stay healthy.  Fuentes will probably start the season at Triple-A but should see a good amount of time in center at PetCo Park.

#12

Zach Eflin – RHP
Date of Birth: April 8, 1994
Height/Weight: 6’4″/200 lbs.
Acquired: 2012, 1st round (33rd overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Eflin throws with a very easy and repeatable motion, but his fastball sits in the low 90’s and very straight with little to no run at all.  He has a plus change which is enough to keep hitters in the low minors off balance, and has a slider that shows some promise.  He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, but if he adds some movement to his fastball, he could move up as high as a number three starter.

2014 Prognosis: Given 2014 will be his age 20 season, Eflin will probably spend most the year, if not all of it, in High-A.  The hitter friendly league will be a good test for the young starter.

#11

Cory Spangenberg – 2B
Date of Birth: March 16, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’/195 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 1st round (10th overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Spangenberg is missing two tools, power and arm, which likely limits him to second base only, despite being originally drafted as a third baseman. He does have a solid glove and can hit for average, but his best tool is his speed and ability to steal bags.  He also had above average plate discipline that could land him at the top of a batting order someday, but finding a spot on the field might be his biggest struggle.

2014 Prognosis: With Jedd Gyorko firmly holding down second base for the Padres makes the path to playing time difficult for Spangenberg.  Look for him to start the year in Triple-A but get a call up should there be an injury to a middle infielder

Burch Smith – Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

#10

Joe Ross – RHP
Date of Birth: May 21, 1993
Height/Weight: 6’3″/185 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 1st round (25th overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Tyson Ross’ younger brother is a projectable right handed pitcher with high upside.  His fastball can touch 97 but sits 93-95.  His slider needs work, as does his change, but both have upside.  His control is better than one might expect at this point of his development, but is very much a thrower rather than a pitcher.  As his pitches get sharper, and he learns to better utilize them, he could become as high as a number two starter, but the risk is high and there is no guarantee he ever gets to the big leagues.

2014 Prognosis: Ross does a good job of working down in the zone and getting ground balls, which will be a major plus for him as he enters the California League in 2014. The key stat to look for is his strikeout rate, his ERA will likely jump this season, but if his K/9 improves, he is on the right track.

#9

Burch Smith – RHP
Date of Birth: April 12, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’4″/215 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 14th round

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Smith’s big league numbers in 2013 was somewhat of a disaster, but that should be the exception in his career.  As a starter, he works with a four pitch mix, but he probably fits better as a late inning reliever.  He is best served as a fastball/change-up pitcher, as he has a tendency to lose command of his breaking stuff, leading to the big ERA he posted in the big leagues last year.

2014 Prognosis: Triple-A is likely the opening day home for Smith, but he will be one of the first pitchers to be called up.  The Padres might give him another shot in the rotation, but by season’s end he should be a mainstay in the bullpen.

#8

Keyvius Sampson – RHP
Date of Birth: January 6, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’/180 lbs.
Acquired: 2009, 4th round

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Sampson may have seen his last days as a starter, but that is not a bad thing.  He has a decent fastball, wipe out breaking stuff, and a change that can keep him effective against both right handed and left handed batters.  He got his first consistent taste of bullpen work in the Arizona Fall League this year, and has the potential of being a top level set-up man.

2014 Prognosis: He will probably head back to Triple-A and hone his skills in the bullpen, and it could delay his debut another year.  Look for him to spend the majority of the season in El Paso in a late inning role, with a small chance at a September call-up.

#7

Jace Peterson – SS
Date of Birth: May 9, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’/205 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 1st round (58th overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Peterson has a surprisingly high stolen base total for someone with just average speed.  In fact, average is a good way to describe the majority of his tools, except hit, that tool is well above average.  He can probably hit close to .300 as a rare left handed bat from a middle infielder. The path to the big leagues is a complicated one.  If the Padres deal Chase Headley, and Jedd Gyorko moves over to third, Peterson could become a valuable utility infielder, with the upside of an every day player.

2014 Prognosis: Peterson will more than likely move up to Double-A in 2014, but this could be the year he finally plays across multiple levels.  If he continues to hit and over-deliver in the speed categories, he could find himself in PetCo this season.

#6

Hunter Renfroe – OF
Date of Birth: January 28, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’1″/200 lbs.
Acquired: 2013, 1st round (13th overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Renfroe has an impressive arm that made him a standout catcher in high school, but he found his position in right field while with Mississippi State in the College World Series in 2013.  He has real home run potential, but he strikes out too often at this time.  He moves pretty well, and has a chance to be a plus defender in right.  If the power continues to develop, and he can limit the strikeouts, he can become an above average right fielder in the big leagues before too long.

2014 Prognosis: His first full season should kick off in the California League, and he could be a quick mover.  His home run numbers should jump off the page at Lake Elsinore, and a decent batting average should earn him a trip to Double-A.

Austin Hedges – Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

#5

Rymer Liriano – OF

Date of Birth: June 20,1991
Height/Weight: 6’/225 lbs.
Acquired: International Free Agent

2013 Stats: Did not play in 2013 due to injury, last stats are from 2012.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: Liriano had to undergo elbow surgery and missed the entire 2013 season, but has been able to get into four games this winter in the Dominican Republic, where his lone hit was a long ball.  His power is probably his second best tool, behind a strong arm in right field, but time will tell how that bounces back after the Tommy John Surgery.  He has flashed speed in the minors thus far, but it is hard to see that continuing based on his body type.

2014 Prognosis: Since Liriano has not gotten much playing time in the Dominican this winter, spring will have a huge impact on where he starts the season.  If the arm is back to full strength, look for him to go back to Double-A, but he will probably stick in Arizona for extended spring and work his way back slowly.

#4

Casey Kelly – RHP
Date of Birth: October 4, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’3″/210 lbs.
Acquired: 2010, via trade with Boston Red Sox

2013 Stats: Did not play in 2013 due to injury, last stats are from 2012.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2014.

Analysis: The top piece still with the Padres from the big trade with the Boston Red Sox in 2010, Kelly missed all of 2013 to Tommy John Surgery.  Kelly has flashed plus control on a plus fastball and a plus curve, to go along with an average to above average change.  He has been ranked as high as the 24th overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America, but his upside is now more of an end-of-the-rotation type rather than a number two starter. 

2014 Prognosis: Due to surgery not taking place until the spring of 2013, Kelly likely won’t play until mid-season in 2014.  He will go through a full rehab assignment, but once he is healthy, he should be able to make it back to the big leagues quickly.

#3

Matthew Wisler – RHP
Date of Birth: September 12, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’3″/195 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 7th round

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2014.

Analysis: Wisler is probably a number three starter, and he could be that quickly.  His fastball has good, late, arm-side movement in the low-to-mid 90’s.  His slider moves well over two planes and is already a plus pitch, and his change is good enough to keep him successful against batters from either side of the plate.  While he has solid control, he can get under the ball at times, and when he elevates his fastball, it flattens out and becomes very hittable.  He has as high a floor as any pitcher in the Padres system.

2014 Prognosis: He will likely kick off the season at Triple-A, but if he pitches lights out in the spring, he just might be able to break camp in the big league rotation.  Realistically he will be the second or third player to get called up to make a spot start or fill in for an injured starter, and he has the ability to never give the job back once he gets it.

#2

Max Fried – LHP
Date of Birth: January 18, 1994
Height/Weight: 6’4″/185 lbs.
Acquired: 2012, 1st round (7th overall)

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2014.

Analysis: Fried may not have even been the best pitcher on his own high school team, as his teammate was Lucas Giolito, but he is the top pitching prospect in the Padres system. Fried also happens to be the lone left handed pitching prospect worth mentioning in the system right now.  There isn’t a pitching tool you can’t put at least a 60 future on, and he will probably land in the top 50 of most prospect list released this year.  He has a four-seam and two-seam fastball, a curve, a change, and he controls them all.  While his fastball tops out at 95 now, he does have a projectable body that could add a couple ticks to that.

2014 Prognosis: He will probably spend the whole season at High-A, but depending on his innings count, could jump to Double-A or even the Arizona Fall League at the end of the season.  Fried’s numbers won’t be of much concern this year, instead, a focus on control and sharpening his pitches will be the priority, so don’t sour on him if his numbers are pedestrian in 2014.

#1

Austin Hedges – C
Date of Birth: August 18, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’1″/190 lbs.
Acquired: 2011, 2nd round

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2014.

Analysis: I absolutely love Austin Hedges’ game.  He is as good a defensive catcher to come through the minors as any in some time.  He has soft hand, quick pop, and a solid arm.  The big question is with his bat.  If he hits at least .250 (which he will) he will be a huge asset to the big league roster very soon.  The Padres have catching depth, which is why Hedges is still in the minors, but he is a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball to me.

2014 Prognosis: Hedges will likely start the season at Triple-A after a solid 2013 that culminated in a trip to the Arizona Fall League.  He will probably make his debut this year and should be the opening day starter in 2015.