San Francisco Giants 2014 Top 15 Prospects

Mar 11, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Heath Hembree (72) pitches during the eighth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants had a season to forget at the major-league level in 2013, but their farm system is vastly improved from a year ago. As veterans like Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Belt hit their arbitration years and beyond (and attendant salary raises) the availability of cheap, homegrown talent will become more important than ever. The farm system has a wealth of potential role players but a real lack of impact talent, especially on the position player side. Still, the system has made a lot of positive strides in the past year and has the pitching depth to match up with most systems in the league.

Triple-A: Fresno Grizzlies (Pacific Coast League)
Double-A: Richmond Flying Squirrels (Eastern League)
High-A: San Jose Giants (California League)
Class-A: Augusta Greenjackets (South Atlantic League)
Short-Season A: Salem-Keizer Volcanoes (Northwest League)
Complex-Rookie: AZL Giants (Arizona League)

#15

Gary Brown – OF
Date of Birth: September 28, 1988
Height/Weight: 6’1″/190 lbs.
Acquired: 1st round of the 2010 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Analysis: 2013 was a disastrous year for Brown, the former first-round pick and top prospect. Just about everything that could go wrong, did: a .660 OPS in a hitter’s league, a dreadful SB%, a K/BB ratio over 4. In addition to all that, reports out of Fresno indicated that Brown had some makeup problems and wasn’t making adjustments, especially against right handed pitchers. He’s struggled in his career against righties, culminating in a .221/.276/.356 line against them in 2013. He’s a plus defender in center field, but despite his natural speed he’s had steadily declining stolen-base percentages over the last three years. He’ll get opportunities at the highest level because of his defense, but he still has a long way to go to reaching the potential he showed in his excellent 2011 season in San Jose.

2014 Prognosis: Brown will be back in Triple-A, hopefully sporting a new swing. As is, he’s a candidate for the 5th OF spot in San Francisco, but the organization will undoubtedly want Brown to get everyday at-bats and instruction in the minors. He could be up in September, however.

#14

Derek Law – RP
Date of Birth: September 14, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’3″/218 lbs.
Acquired: 9th round of the 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Analysis: Law had an impressive breakout season in 2013, with a K/BB ratio of 8.5 over 3 levels and an eye-popping 45:1 K/BB ratio in 25.2 innings in San Jose. Numbers like that are going to draw some attention, but Law isn’t just a stat sheet curiosity. He attacks hitters with a deceptive motion and a four-pitch arsenal which includes a mid-90s fastball, and a plus curveball. To back up his 2013 regular season performance he went to the Arizona Fall League, where he didn’t allow a run in 12.1 innings while striking out 16 and walking 6. His extreme over-the-top motion and dynamite 12-6 curveball generate a ton of ground balls.

2014 Prognosis: Rumors have Law starting next season in Triple-A but a more realistic guess would have him in Richmond. Either way, if he continues to pitch like he has, he could be in the majors by the All-Star Break.

#13

Joan Gregorio – SP
Date of Birth: January 12, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’7″/180 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent, signed March 2010.

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Analysis: Pay no attention to the ERA, Gregorio had an excellent season as part of an intriguing Augusta starting rotation. The 6’7″ stringbean showed unusual command for someone that tall, and he backed that up with an outstanding K/9 for a K/BB ratio approaching 5. His mechanics are inconsistent, like many tall pitchers, and he fought injuries in 2013 including an oblique injury and a blister problem. His fastball sits 90-93 and can touch 95, and he complements it with a slider and a changeup. Augusta beat writer David Lee describes his slider as “slurvy at times” but scouts think it could be an above-average offering in the future. His changeup lags behind his other two pitches, causing some to throw a future bullpen role on Gregorio.

2014 Prognosis: He’s headed to San Jose. The most important thing to Gregorio is to stay of the disabled list. If he can throw 120-140 innings and show some development with his off-speed stuff, he could end up in the top 5 on this list next year.

#12

Heath Hembree – RP
Date of Birth: January 13, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’4″/210 lbs
Acquired: 5th round of the 2010 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Analysis: It was an up-and-down season for Hembree which culminated in a successful September call-up to the big league squad. Hembree’s season was a tale of two halves. Through the end of June, he had a 5.08 ERA in 33.2 IP with unimpressive peripherals, including 6 home runs allowed. He made some adjustments in July, however, and his stats from July to September are impressive: a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings with a 24:5 K/BB ratio and, notably, only one home run allowed. He was called up during roster expansion and didn’t allow a run in 7.2 innings. Hembree’s arsenal features a fastball at 92-94 and a plus slider with two-plane movement. He worked on his changeup last season but it will likely never be better than average.

2014 Prognosis: Hembree should start the season in San Francisco. The team has three openings in its bullpen and could use his heat from the right side.

#11

Keury Mella – SP
Date of Birth: August 2, 1993
Height/Weight: 6’2″/200 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent, signed September 2011

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2014.

Analysis: Mella might have the second-highest pure ceiling of any pitching prospect in the Giants system, after Kyle Crick. He’s young and very raw, but he throws an mid-90s fastball and complements it with a curveball that has plus potential. He also has a changeup that shows potential but it lags behind at this point. His ceiling is a #2 starter, but he’ll likely end up as a high-leverage reliever.

2014 Prognosis: He could head to short-season Salem-Keizer, but hopefully he’ll get an aggressive promotion all the way to Augusta.

Jun 18, 2013; San Jose, CA, USA; San Jose Giants pitcher Ty Blach (48) during the second inning of the California League vs Carolina League All Star Game at San Jose Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

#10

Kendry Flores – SP
Date of Birth: November 24, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’2″/175 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent, signed June 2009

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Flores burst on the prospect scene after two mediocre years in Augusta with only 17 walks in 141.2 innings and a K/BB ratio over 8. He also showed great durability, lasting nearly 6.5 innings per start in 2013. He struck out at least 10 on four different occasions, culminating in his second-to-last start of the season, where he struck out 15 and walked none in 8 innings. Flores works with a heavy fastball that has flashed as high as 95, but typically works in the low-90s. It can be inconsistent, sometimes dropping into the upper-80s. He also has a good changeup that he throws consistently for strikes and can locate the pitch to both sides of the plate. His curveball lags behind his other two pitches but can flash average potential. If he can develop that pitch to the level of his other two, he has a #3 ceiling.

2014 Prognosis: Flores will join Gregorio in what should be a very interesting rotation in San Jose. He needs to prove that his stuff is legit and his extraordinary stat line in Augusta wasn’t an illusion due to his superior command and control.

#9

Chris Stratton – SP
Date of Birth: August 22, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’3″/186 lbs
Acquired: 1st round of the 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Stratton’s statline looks okay, but it was a somewhat-disappointing season from the 2012 SEC Pitcher of the Year. After suffering a concussion from a line drive to the head in August 2012, Stratton was conservatively sent to low-A Augusta. Many prospect hounds thought he’d be there only until mid-season, but the call-up to San Jose never happened. Instead, Stratton put up a full season of solid, but somewhat unspectacular numbers for a college first-round pick in low-A. David Lee, beat writer for the Augusta Chronicle, reported that for large parts of the season Stratton was working on development rather than results. In terms of stuff, Stratton has a low-90s fastball that he spots well and a plus slider that he uses as his out pitch. He also has a changeup and a curveball that have a ways to go developmentally, but could be average pitches in the future. This is a conservative ranking of Stratton, who has a ceiling of a #3 starter, but I’d like to see a bounceback campaign before I believe in him again.

2014 Prognosis: Stratton seems to likely be ticketed for San Jose, but with a good spring he could make the jump directly to Double-A. It’s a move the Giants have made in the past with college pitchers (most recently Mike Kickham) to keep them away from the hitter-friendly California League.

#8

Mac Williamson – OF
Date of Birth: July 15, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’5″/240 lbs
Acquired: 3rd round

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: If I had compiled this list right after the season, I would have ranked Mac as high as fourth. I’ve cooled on him somewhat, due to the long record of college hitters tearing up the California League only to flounder against more advanced competition. Built like a linebacker, Williamson has shown above-average power so far in his professional career, including a .212 ISO in 2013. He also showed an encouraging ability to make adjustments over the season. After a horrid May (.647 OPS) he made some adjustments and tore up the league the rest of the way, hitting .328/.412/.578 in 376 PA with 19 HR and, most encouragingly, a 20.2% K rate. His ceiling is an everyday outfielder with 20-25 HR potential who could make an All-Star Game or two. The key to whether he can reach that ceiling – or make the majors – is his hit tool. Many scouts believe he doesn’t have the contact skills to stick in the majors. His 2013 K rate of 22% isn’t a huge red flag but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on in 2014. A solid season in Richmond will see him leap into the top 5 of this system.

2014 Prognosis: Mac will head to the pitcher-friendly Eastern League, where he can prove his 2013 performance was for real.

#7

Christian Arroyo – SS
Date of Birth: 5/30/1995
Height/Weight: 6’1″/180 lbs
Acquired: 1st round of the 2013 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Arroyo was seen by many as an overdraft at 25th overall, but he backed up his draft position with a solid showing in the AZL. He showed solid contact abilities and line drive power in Arizona. His bat is what will carry him to the big leagues, as he profiles without a position for now. He played shortstop in Arizona, but he isn’t the quickest player on the field and many scouts doubt he’ll be able to stick at short. The question then becomes, where does he go? Some believe he doesn’t have the agility for second or the power for third. Before the draft there was some noise about moving him to catcher, but indications so far are that the organization intends to keep him at shortstop as long as possible. His ceiling is a bat-first middle infielder who hits .300 with 50 XBH a year.

2014 Prognosis: There’s an outside chance Arroyo gets sent to High-A San Jose, but I’ll predict he heads to low-A Augusta. He’ll have the chance to prove himself with the bat and the glove next season.

#6

Ty Blach – SP
Date of Birth: October 20, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’1″/200 lbs
Acquired: 5th round of the 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Blach came into the season somewhat under the radar, and some prospect-watchers were surprised when he got assigned to high-A San Jose instead of first-rounder Chris Stratton. The lefty proved the doubters wrong with a strong 2013 campaign, exhibiting better-than-advertised stuff to go with advanced pitchability. His best tool is his command and control, as he can spot any of his four pitches for strikes and can locate around the plate. None of his pitches have eye-popping potential, but all project to be average pitches. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he also throws a changeup (his best secondary pitch), a slider and a curveball. Blach might have the highest floor of any prospect in the system.

2014 Prognosis: The next step on the ladder for Blach is Double-A Richmond, but with a great spring he could be assigned directly to Triple-A Fresno. That’s unlikely, but Blach could be in the majors sooner rather than later if multiple members of the San Francisco starting rotation are battling injuries or ineffectiveness.

Jul 14, 2013; Flushing , NY, USA; USA pitcher Kyle Crick throws a pitch during the 2013 All Star Futures Game at Citi Field. USA defeated World 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

#5

Andrew Susac – C
Date of Birth: March 22, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’2″/210 lbs
Acquired: 2nd round of the 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Susac bounced back in a big way after a disappointing Cal League campaign in 2012, posting an .820 OPS in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Eastern League and a .987 OPS in a 50 PA sample in the Arizona Fall League with more walks than strikeouts. Susac has shown an impressive batting eye during his professional career with a walk rate over 13% as well as a solid power stroke for a catcher. His biggest red flag on the offensive side is his contact ability, as he hit .256 in Richmond after hitting .244 in San Jose in 2012. Still, he could be a low-average, high-power catcher in the mold of Russell Martin. Defensively, Susac has mixed reports. His arm is plus, but his lower half can be slow on balls in the dirt and receiving skills are inconsistent. He’s very close on both the offensive and defensive side to being a top catching prospect in the minors. Susac has had some problems staying healthy; a hamate injury his final year of college dropped him to the second round, and his 2013 season was cut short at the end of July due to a shoulder injury.

2014 Prognosis: Susac should be the starting catcher in Fresno to start the season. Obviously, the big league team has no pressing need at catcher, so barring injury he’ll get a full season’s worth of plate appearances in Triple-A. It will be interesting to see what the organization does with Susac, as he could be used as a trade chip for major-league reinforcements if the team is in contention come July.

#4

Clayton Blackburn – SP
Date of Birth: January 6, 1993
Height/Weight: 6’3″/220 lbs
Acquired: 16th round of the 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Blackburn followed up a stellar age-19 season in the Sally with an excellent 2013 in the California League. He has consistently shown the ability to strike batters out while limiting baserunners. He doesn’t have a huge fastball, touching 93 and consistently working 89-91, but he has plus control over four pitches that he uses to keep hitters off-balance. His fastball has some sink that results in a lot of ground balls. His curveball is his best secondary pitch and has plus potential. In addition, he throws a changeup and a slider, and both could be average pitches in the future. Blackburn is another of the Giants’ stable of pitchers without elite-level upside, but who all project as back-of-the-rotation starters. Blackburn is a big body and has some conditioning questions moving forward, but he hasn’t had a problem with it so far in his career and it’s only a minor concern.

2014 Prognosis: Blackburn will head to Double-A, where he figures to team up with Kyle Crick, Adalberto Mejia, and Ty Blach again to form a formidable rotation.

#3

Edwin Escobar – SP
Date of Birth: April 22, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’2″/200 lbs
Acquired: Trade with the Rangers, April 2010.

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Of all the excellent performers in the 2013 San Jose rotation, it was Escobar who received the only mid-season call-up to Richmond. Although his roster status was certainly a factor (he was placed on the 40-man last offseason to avoid being exposed in the Rule 5 draft), no one can argue he didn’t deserve it. Escobar, a lefty, utilitzes two plus pitches, his fastball and his changeup, to keep hitters on both sides of the plate off-balance. A half-season in San Jose with a K/BB ratio over 5 earned him the call-up where he continued to impress, his peripherals only slightly dipping against the higher level of competition. His fastball sits in the lower-90s and can touch 95 with good life, although it can dip into the upper-80s on occasion. His changeup is a plus secondary pitch and he throws a slider as well. It is the development of the slider which will dictate whether he can reach his ceiling of a #3 starter. It has decent movement but the pitch can get away from him at times. Escobar was acquired by the Giants in a strange trade in 2010. The Orioles selected Giants farmhand Ben Snyder, but immediately flipped him to the Rangers. Snyder didn’t make the Rangers’ roster out of spring training, but instead of sending Snyder back to San Francisco they shipped over Escobar.

2014 Prognosis: Escobar could be ticketed for a return to Richmond but I think he’s headed for Triple-A Fresno. He should reach the majors in September, unless the team decides he’s ready for the bigs and has a need in the rotation.

#2

Adalberto Mejia – SP
Date of Birth: June 30, 1993
Height/Weight: 6’3″/195 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent, signed February 2011

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Mejia had an excellent season in San Jose (stop me when this sounds familiar) and acquitted himself well in a spot-start in Fresno in July. Mejia’s innings count was limited in 2013 thanks to a lat injury sustained in May that caused him to miss a month and a half. Other than the injury, Mejia’s 2013 was an unqualified success, as he struck out more than a batter an inning while showing plus control despite being the fourth-youngest player in the league. Mejia has three pitches that project to be plus or better, with a low-90s fastball, a mid-80s slider, and a changeup with both fade and sink that he utilizes well against righties. He was sent to the AFL in September, where he struggled somewhat but still flashed impressive stuff, including a fastball that averaged 94 mph with a very high spin rate. High spin rates are strongly correlated with fly balls, and Mejia can struggle with home runs. The friendly confines of AT&T Park should help mitigate that, but he may struggle with it moving forward. He, like most all the pitchers we’ve covered so far, is more of a pitchability guy than a power guy, but no one who projects to start at high-A or higher has the stuff that Mejia has (other than the guy who’s #1 on this list). I’d say his ceiling is high #3 starter.

2014 Prognosis: Mejia will start the year in Double-A Richmond.

#1

Kyle Crick – SP
Date of Birth: November 30, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’4″/220 lbs
Acquired: 1st round (supplemental) in the 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Analysis: Crick had a bit of a bumpy year in 2013, but his presence at the top of this list is due to the fact that no one in the system can come close to matching his upside. He simply overwhelmed hitters in the California League, and despite missing a good chunk of time due to a strained oblique, he finished 2nd in the California League in strikeouts and first in the league in K/9 among starters (his teammate Edwin Escobar was 2nd). Yes, his command is below-average. He can have trouble repeating his mechanics, and often his loss of control comes in spurts. It’s important to remember that Crick didn’t start pitching full time until the winter after his junior year in high school, or only three full years ago. His mechanics are quite clean when they’re on, and he has three pitches that have plus or better potential. His fastball, which sits 95-97 and can touch 99, is one of the elite fastballs in the minors. He has a hard 88-90 slider to go with his curveball, that has depth and movement. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which is somewhat extraordinary considering it was his weakest secondary this time last year. The development of his changeup is what convinces me he’s a starter long term, although some scouts think he’s destined for a closer role. He could end up a closer and still be the most valuable player on this list when all said and done. He’s one of the top 50 prospects in baseball.

2014 Prognosis: Crick will also be heading to Double-A Richmond. 2014 is a big year for his development – he needs to show strides with his command if he’s to silence doubts about his future in a rotation. He’ll join Mejia, Blach, Blackburn, and perhaps Stratton in what could be the minors’ best rotation.