Prospects on the Verge: Marcus Stroman

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman against the West during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Boogie, an old Oakland scout reflects on a young Billy Beane in Michael Lewis‘s Moneyball, “Billy was a guy you could dream on,” he said wistfully. There in lies the tantalizing nature of prospects: you can imagine them to be anything. In a 19 year old throwing gas on some slipshod Single-A mound, you can see an ace racking up strikeouts in Fenway Park and a skinny dominican cracking balls deep into the gaps of rookie league stadiums is clearly just a few years away from turning the spacious Petco Park into a bandbox.

But eventually time rears its ceaseless hands and dreams must either be realized or melt into a grim or mundane reality. Prospects have to eventually perform at the show; so we here at Grading On The Curve are running down the list of prospects who could make a major impact this year. One from each team, next up is the Toronto Blue Jays and starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. 

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman against the West during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

With Masahiro Tanaka off the board and (possibly) Matt Garza likely headed to the Brewers, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the Blue Jays will head into spring training with at least one rotation spot up for grabs. Although they have a slew of journeyman veterans and middling youngsters who could vie for that fifth (and possibly fourth) spot, the most intriguing one and the one with greatest potential for dominance is 22 year old Marcus Stroman.

Stroman, a two way player for two thirds of his years at Duke, has developed quickly since shifting his complete focus to the mound in 2012. He was drafted in the first round that summer and thoroughly tore apart Double-A last year, just his first full professional season, pitching to a 3.30 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, and a 4.78 SO/BB ratio (10.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9).

His stuff, meanwhile, is electric. At 92-93 with life, Stroman’s fastball is a plus offering, but his bread and butter is his slider, which was referred to by Baseball Prospectus as the best slider in all of minor league baseball. It sits in the mid to low 80’s and has tight spin which yields sharp two plane break. After that, he also throws a cutter and a changeup, that while still developing, could be an above average offering. Perhaps most importantly, he can command all of his pitches, as evidenced by his 2.2 BB/9 last nine.

Stroman’s raw talents an dominance in the minor leagues have culminated favorable S abemetric projections for next season, should he grab the fifth starter spot. Steamer projects Stroman to pitch to a 4.11 ERA for a 3.88 FIP while ZIPs forecasts a 4.41 ERA and a 4.34 FIP, all of which are impressive marks for a 23 year old rookie pitching in the AL East. Statistical projection for rookies are invariably cautious, and understandably so, but it may not be difficult for Stroman to outperform these predictions.

The problem for Stroman, and the reason that he slid to the back of first round in 2012 and now only ranks as the 55^h best prospect in baseball is his size. At 5’9, 185 lbs, Stroman is incredibly small for a pitcher, or any major league baseball player for that matter, which leads scouts to doubt his long term durability and if he can ever handle a 200 inning workload. Pedro Martinez and Roy Oswalt, a pair of pitchers famous for being undersized, each stood two to three inches taller than Stroman. Tim Lincecum, equally known for his slight figure, at least stood 5’11. Stroman’s thicker build could let him stay as healthy as the slightly taller Lincecum, but just look at what happened to the pitcher once known as “The Freak:” As the years and innings piled up, his fastball velocity declined, and so did his performance.

These durability issues have led some scouts to recommend sticking Stroman in the bullpen, where he can touch triple digits and the rest of his stuff plays up as well. Although he could certainly be a dominant force there, a number two or even a number three starter is far more valuable than most any reliever, and as such I would expect the Blue Jays to try to keep Stroman in the rotation for as long as possible.

In all likelihood, however, Marcus Stroman will not start next season as Toronto’s fifth starter, if only because of roster issues. Stroman is off the 40 man roster, and for the Blue Jays to add him, they would have to designate someone else for assignment. Not only that, but having him start the season at the major league level would start his free agent clock, and make him eligible to leave Toronto one year earlier than if they just waited until the end of April.

In all likelihood, they will let Stroman bide his time in the minors at least until the end of April and possibly until his super two status runs out in late may, but he’s already shown complete control over minor league hitters, and he should be ready for the Show, in whatever capacity, whenever the Blue Jays make the call.