Prospects On the Verge: Jake Odorizzi

May 27, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher

(23) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

“Billy was a guy you could dream on,” Boogie, an old Oakland scout reflected on a young Billy Beane in Michael Lewis‘s Moneyball. There in lies the tantalizing nature of prospects: you can imagine them to be anything. In a 19 year old throwing gas on some slipshod Single-A mound, you can see an ace racking up strikeouts in Fenway Park and a skinny dominican cracking balls deep into the gaps of rookie league stadiums is clearly just a few years away from turning the spacious Petco Park into a bandbox.

But eventually time rears its ceaseless hands and dreams must either be realized or melt into a grim or mundane reality. Prospects have to eventually perform at the show; so we here at Grading On The Curve are running down the list of prospects who could make a major impact this year. One from each team, starting with the Tampa Bay Rays and starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi.

Aug 29, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi (23) throws a pitch during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Although the trade rumors surrounding David Price have waned over the past couple months, they could pick up now that Masahiro Tanaka and (possibly) Matt Garza are off the board. If the Rays choose to trade their ace, Jake Odorizzi would compete with fellow prospects Alex Colome and Enny Romero for the fifth starter spot, although being the most advanced group, Odorizzi is the odds on favorite to win.

The number 56^th overall prospect in baseball according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, Odorizzi, 23, was acquired from the Royals as the secondary prospect in last years Jame Shields trade. Whereas the headliner of that deal, 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, offers MVP caliber potential, Odorizzi is more of a high-floor prospect with little risk, but equally little capacity to dominate.

He has no single premium pitch; instead the righthander relies on his command of four solid-average offerings. His fastball sits in the low 90’s with limited two plane break, and he complements it largely with a changeup and slider, both of which grade out as average to moderately above average offering, while also mixing in the occasional mediocre curveball.

Odorizzi’s leg up in the competition for the last rotation spot comes in the fact that he has already established success in the upper minors and shown at least competency at the major league level. Over 231.2 AAA innings between 2012 and 2013, he boasts a 3.12 ERA, a 8.2 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9. In four starts and seven relief appearances for the Rays last season, the 23 year old pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 3.89 FIP. By contrast, Alex Colome has only 14 career starts in Triple-A, and while he pitched briefly at for Tampa at the end of last season and posted a 2.45 ERA, his peripherals indicated that he needed further seasoning. Enny Romero, meanwhile, has made only one Triple-A start and one major league start, during which he threw only 4.2 innings, walked four, and didn’t record a strikeout.

Having never sustained a significant injury over the course of five professional seasons, Odorizzi not a health risk, either, and should be dependable for a 200 inning workload going forward. A mid rotation workhorse, can be a rather undervalued commodity.

The only major obstacles between Odorizzi and his future as a number three or number four starter are his fly ball tendencies. The average ground ball rate for all MLB pitchers is 44%, over the course of his brief major league career, Odorizzi has posted a rate of 31%, allowing an inordinate number of line drives and fly balls. This has and will lead to troves of home runs and extra base hits in the gap, which will obviously undercut his performance. Although the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field will provide some relief, he is going to have to keep the ball in the bottom half as he transitions to the majors.

Should the Rays choose to keep Price and go into the season with him at the helm, Odorizzi will be the odd man out of Tampa’s rotation, but  that hardly means he is destined to toil all season at Triple-A. No rotation in the history of baseball has ever been injury proof, and Odorizzi should be on deck to take the spot of any fallen starter. Moreover, even if the Rays start next season with Price, thats little guarantee they’ll finish it with him, and Jake will be waiting when they do.

Jake Odorizzi isn’t necessarily a “guy you can dream on.”  He certainly, however,  has the potential to be a legitimate major league starter. 2014 is his chance to prove it.