Who Goes First, Rodon or Aiken? MLB Draft Discussion

Who’s going to be selected first overall in the MLB Draft by the Houston Astros? The Astros will select first in the draft for the third year in a row and are poised to build on what is already one of the best minor league systems in baseball.

In 2012, the Astros selected Puerto Rican high school shortstop Carlos Correa with their top pick and he’s been a sure thing throughout his brief minor league career. Correa, in his Age-19 season, is now with the High-A Lancaster Jet Hawks and he’s hitting .305/.370/.458 after dominating the Midwest League last year.

With their 2013 pick, the Astros selected a college pitcher, Mark Appel, and things aren’t as rosy with him. Appel started his pro career really well, throwing 38 strong innings between the Astros’ New York-Penn League and Midwest League affiliates last season but 2014 (and the California League) has been less kind to him. In just 13 innings with Lancaster, Appel allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on 17 hits despite a strong 13-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and earned him a trip back to extended spring training. The Astros have cited an emergency appendectomy that cut his regular spring training short and he hasn’t been able to get back in the swing of things, seeing a drop in velocity as well.

For 2014, the draft pundits have weighed in and there’s almost unanimous consensus that the Astros are going to select one of two pitchers: NC State lefty Carlos Rodon or Cathedral Catholic High School lefty Brady Aiken.

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Rodon was considered to be the number one pick coming into this year’s basball season but, while his numbers are very good, he hasn’t been as dominant as some might have hoped. His 2.01 ERA is excellent but his 1.17 WHIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio and 10.72 K/9 ratio are strong but not otherworldly.

Another factor to consider is how much money it might take to sign Rodon. Baseball America’s John Manuel speculates that Rodon could push for in the $8 million range. His slow start to the season has pushed him down the draft boards (generally going at #3 in mock drafts) despite seeing his velocity rise back to the mid-90s and a possible 80-grade slider.

In most mock drafts coming out recently (MLB.com, Baseball America, ESPN), we’re starting to see San Diego high school lefty Brady Aiken top the board. The youngster has been known to hit 97 mph this season after spending the offseason working out hard and has apparently (according to Baseball America staff) improved his curveball to the “silly good” (as one scout is quoted by BA staff) point in the 77-78 mph range.

At MLB Trade Rumors, Charlie Wilmoth notes the unpredictability and fragility of pitchers in today’s game and suggests that Alex Jackson, a California high school catcher/outfielder could be looked at as well. In most mock drafts, the Miami Marlins are seen selecting Jackson with their second overall pick.

Yet another possibility could be selecting Texas high school righty Tyler Kolek who boasts a heavy, sinking, 100+ mph fastball and is the top-rated power arm in the draft.

Who will it be for the Astros? Rodon? Aiken? Or will the Astros go a bit further afield for someone like Kolek, Jackson or even Louisiana State righty Aaron Nola? What do you think? Let us know in the comments!