Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
Heading into the 2014 season, the Tampa Bay Rays were predicted by many to reach the playoffs. With a rotation fronted by David Price and Matt Moore, as well as a lineup that appeared set to be better than last season, the Rays seemed to be set to continue their impressive run near the top of the American League East.
Instead, virtually everything that could have gone wrong for the Rays has. Moore made two starts before being lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery. Jeremy Hellickson has yet to pitch this year and Alex Cobb spent time on the disabled list as well. The offense, which was expected to improve, instead ranks 24th in runs scored and 20th in OPS. Unlike in years past, the Rays pitching staff has not been good enough to make up for these offensive struggles.
So where does that leave the Rays as they approach the trade deadline? For the first time in years, they would seemingly be sellers at the trade deadline.
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With a potential sale, what could the Rays be looking for? If their three biggest needs were to be listed, they could be summed up as offense, offense and offense. However, let us be a bit more specific. Should the Rays be sellers at the deadline, there are specific areas that they are likely to look for.
1. Young power hitters: Remember when the Royals sent Wil Myers to the Rays as part of a package for James Shields and Wade Davis? If the Rays are to move Price, chances are they will look to add a similar type of player to the outfield to pair with Myers.
2. Starting pitching: For years, the Rays have been an assembly line when it came to cranking out young starter after young starter. Now, for the first time in years, the Rays are actually lacking depth in the rotation. The state of the young starters who are at least close to major league ready is bad enough where 35 year old Erik Bedard, whose arm is held together with string and duct tape, has made 13 starts. Remove Price from the equation, and it only gets worse.
3. Shortstop: Yunel Escobar is still a wizard defensively, but his OPS+ has decreased by ten points from last year. In fact, aside from the improved batting eye, Escobar is hitting like the shortstop that was run out of Toronto at the end of the 2011 season. With former top pick Tim Beckham out for the year due to a torn ACL and Hak-Ju Lee struggling with the Durham Bulls, shortstop could be a concern in the next year or two.
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So, who would the Rays be looking to move? Two obvious names come to mind, as well as a dark horse trade candidate.
1. David Price. Price has been the subject of trade rumors for over a year now. It was felt that Price was becoming too expensive for the Rays, that Price would never be able to be resigned and that the Rays should maximize his trade value. However, as the Rays remained in contention, it made no sense to part ways with one of the best pitchers in baseball. Now, finding themselves with the worst record in the game, it is time to trade Price. As Price has another year and a half of team control before free agency, the Rays may be able to command a package that surpasses what they received for James Shields.
2. Ben Zobrist. Perhaps no one player personifies the Rays more than Zobrist. A versatile player who seemingly fits in anywhere on the diamond, Zobrist compiled a 32.4 WAR from 2009 through 2013, ranking him amongst the best players in the game. Capable of playing second, right, short and even left and center, Zobrist can fill a need virtually everywhere, even if a team acquires him as a super utility player.
3. Matt Joyce. The Rays typically do not trade players away at the nadir of their value, but an exception may have to be made for Joyce. While his batting average and on base percentage have been solid, Joyce is hitting for virtually no power, as he has all of three home runs on the season. Although Joyce has never hit twenty home runs in a season, he has hovered around that mark for the previous three seasons. Perhaps Joyce needs a change of scenery and a new beginning.
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Now that three trade candidates have been identified, what could the Rays be looking for in return. Given their situation, the Rays are likely to be looking on other team’s top prospects, players that they can control for the next five or so years before sending them away to continue refreshing that pipeline of minor league talent.
1. Joc Pederson. Power hitting prospect? Check. Potential middle of the order impact bat to add to Evan Longoria and Wil Myers? Check. On a team that is rumored to be heavily interested in Price? Check. If David Price does end up going to the Dodgers, Pederson would be the type of player that the Rays would demand back in return. With the crowded outfield situation in Los Angeles and their desire to win immediately, the Rays may well get their player, in addition to other prospects in a package deal.
2. Carlos Martinez. The St. Louis Cardinals are another team that could be a contender for David Price as they gear up to make a run for the playoffs. While they have a top outfield prospect in Oscar Tavares, it may be Martinez who could intrigue the Rays more. A power arm with a fastball that can approach 98 MPH and a devastating slider, Martinez could be that next top of the rotation starter that the Rays seemingly churned out every year. If the Rays do trade their ace, Martinez could be the perfect start to a package of prospects.
3. Kyle Zimmer. Much like Martinez, Zimmer is expected to be a top of the rotation starter as he matures. However, there are injury concerns, especially as Zimmer has not thrown a pitch this season. With the Royals in need of a right fielder and Ben Zobrist possibly available, the Rays may well ask for another potential top of the rotation starter. As the Royals have not made the playoffs since they won the World Series in 1985, they may be willing to send along a top prospect if the Royals find themselves on the cusp of ending their postseason drought.