Trade Deadline Preview: Kansas City Royals
Coming off their best season since 1989, a time before interleague play and the existence of two Worlds Series winning franchises, expectations were high for the Royals. The years of frustration and losing appeared to be over, and a bright new future involving meaningful games late in September, or even October, were on the horizon.
The trades for Danny Valencia and Nori Aoki, added to the signings of Omar Infante and Jason Vargas, appeared to solidify the Royals roster as the Royals hoped to contend in the American League Central. Instead, this season has been a roller coaster, as the Royals went from dead last to first by a game and a half in two and a half weeks before falling back to second.
Hovering around .500 on the season, and with Aoki and Infante not performing to expectations, the Royals are still in contention in a weak division. However, they likely need to upgrade the offense to truly compete for a playoff berth.
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For a team with legitimate aspirations for a playoff berth, the Royals have several needs. Offensively, the Royals have been putrid, ranking last in home runs by a wide margin and ranking near the bottom in baseball in several other offensive categories. The Royals vaunted bullpen has struggled this season, with Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera as the only truly reliable options.
What areas specifically could the Royals be targeting at the trade deadline? Glad you asked.
1. Right field. At the time, Nori Aoki seemed to be the perfect fit as the Royals needed both a right fielder and a leadoff hitter. With his ability to make contact and speed, Aoki seemed to be a perfect fit. Instead, Aoki has been awful in Kansas City, palying below replacement level and being used as part of a platoon with Jarrod Dyson. The Royals need another big bat in the lineup, and right field could be the position that would be easiest to upgrade.
2. Left handed relievers. Tim Collins has regressed since his 2012 campaign, as his ERA, WHiP and walk rate have increased while his strikeout rate has decreased. Once the primary lefty out of Ned Yost‘s bullpen, Collins has struggled to the point where he has been banished to Omaha. Francisley Bueno, the other true lefty reliever in the bullpen, has been solid, but has a K/9 just above 4 for the season and has dealt with injury issues. A reliable left hander out of the bullpen could be high on the Royals shopping list.
3. Bench help. As of June 28th, Pedro Ciriaco and Brett Hayes have combined for 88 plate appearances. Ciriaco has an OPS+ of 34, which is actually light years better than Hayes, who has somehow put together an OPS+ of -15. Negative fifteen. While the Royals backup catcher and utility infielder have not played much, the Royals will need to rest players during the dog days of summer. Getting actual major league talent to back up Salvador Perez and to be the utility infielder would certainly help.
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The determination as to whether or not the Royals are sellers at the trade deadline could be made within a week or two of July 31st. As it stands, the Royals appear as though they will by buyers, but a losing streak could change that mindset in a hurry. Should the Royals fall out of contention, here are three players that could end up on the trading block.
1. James Shields. The centerpiece of the trade that sent Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to the Tampa Bay Rays, Shields has been everything that the Royals have asked for since coming over. A true top of the rotation starter, Shields has been a calming veteran presence on what is still a relatively young team. However, Shields is a free agent after this season, and it is highly unlikely that the Royals will be able to afford the salary he is expected to demand in free agency. Should the Royals fall out of the playoff race, Shields should be able to command a solid return.
2. Greg Holland. Since becoming the Royals closer partway through the 2012 season, Holland has been able to cement himself as one of the best closers in the game. He is, however, eligible for arbitration a second time and will begin getting expensive. Meanwhile, Wade Davis is due another $25 Million over the next three years if the Royals pick up all of his team options, which is quite a lot for any team to spend on a setup man. With Davis’s performance this season, it would seem that he may be a closer in the making. Given the number of teams with question marks in the back of their bullpen, Holland would likely be a valued commodity on the trade market.
3. Nori Aoki. Aoki appeared as though he would be a perfect fit in Kansas City, but has played below replacement level ball for the Royals. Perhaps he is pressing in a contract year, or perhaps he needs a change of scenery. Or, maybe Aoki is just about done as a productive player, given how his production has fallen off a cliff. If someone wanted to take a chance on Aoki, the Royals would likely be willing to part with him for virtually anything of possible value.
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However, if the Royals remain in contention, they could end up making several moves. With the holes in their lineup and bullpen, the Royals could end up being quite active at the deadline. Here are a few potential targets:
1. Marlon Byrd. After putting together a career year in 2013 at age 35, Byrd has shown no signs of slowing down with the Philadelphia Phillies. Byrd is still hitting for power and has been able to play a passable right field even at his age. With Lorenzo Cain in center, Byrd’s defensive limitations may not be as glaring, even in the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium. Byrd would also give the Royals a potential power bat in the middle of their lineup, relegating the struggling Aoki to a fourth outfielder role.
2. Andrew Miller. A disaster as a starting pitcher, Miller has been able to reinvent himself as one of the best left handed relievers in the game. While he has had success against hitters from both sides of the plate, Miller has been especially stingy against left handed batters over his career. A power lefty, Miller has struck out over thirteen batters per nine innings since converting full time to the bullpen. Added to the Royals trio of Herrera, Davis and Holland, he would be a perfect fit as a LOOGY for the Royals.
3. Jeff Samardzija. Even though starting pitching would not appear to be a need for the Royals, they have reportedly been scouting Samardzija over his past two starts. Why? Because the plan is to keep Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy to 180 and 150 innings respectively this season. Removing one, or both, pitchers from the rotation would likely be disastrous for the Royals playoff hopes, unless they were to get another top notch starter. As Samardzija is one of the top starters likely to be moved at the deadline, he would certainly help to fill that void if and when either pitcher hits their innings limit.