Trade Deadline Preview: Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins have been toying with their fans’ emotions for most of the 2014 season. Heading into Spring Training there was not much room for optimism or any kind of miraculous turnaround following their disastrous 62-100 campaign in 2013. Sure, the starting rotation anchored by the lovable Jose Fernandez was supposed to be a bright spot, but the lineup, at least on paper, left much to be desired sans Giancarlo Stanton.
But the Marlins busted out of the gates, guns ablaze, and actually fielded one of the most productive offenses over the first couple months of 2014. Bargain-bin pickup Casey McGehee has been a base hit and RBI machine batting behind Stanton, Christian Yelich has been as good as advertised and the likes of Marcell Ozuna and Garrett Jones resurged to form a very dangerous lineup. The National League East has been a cluster all season and, with help from the ailing Philadelphia Phillies and, until recently, down years from the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves, the division race appeared wide open.
Then, Jose Fernandez fell victim to the Tommy John surgery epidemic and the hearts were collectively ripped from the Marlins faithful. The surprisingly bright season was sure to be lost and there’s just no way this team could survive without their young ace, right?
Well, somehow the bruised Fish have kept their heads above water, and currently sit in an intriguing spot with the trade deadline looming less than a month away. They are 41-43, 5.5 games behind the division-leading Braves who have just recently caught fire and stretched their NL East cushion a bit.
As unlikely as it previously seemed, the Marlins have continued to swing the bats and put runs on the board. And it’s a good thing because of inconsistencies to the rotation which has included such names as Randy Wolf, Kevin Slowey and Brad Hand. Miami’s starting staff has been a revolving door which now includes young prospects Andrew Heaney and Anthony DeSclafani.
The 2014 Marlins remain an interesting conundrum. They were supposed to be shoe-ins for the basement of the NL East, and they have taken their lumps — inlcuding an eight-game losing streak back in April. But with no one in the division seemingly emerging as the favorites, the Marlins are still very much in the race — which poses a unique trade deadline approach. This team is built around youth and competing in the future, but many of its top prospects are now at the MLB level and the farm is a bit dry.
With the Marlins sitting right in the middle of the division race — and just two games below .500, a feat that no one saw coming — should they go all in and try to make a surprise playoff push, possibly at the expense of their future prospect inventory? Or should they play it safe and sacrifice their potential first postseason appearance in 11 years with respect for the long run?
The Marlins have two or three pretty glaring holes that need to be filled if they are serious about even sniffing the postseason. The first of these is obvious: starting pitching. No Jose Fernandez means the Marlins do not possess an ace in their rotation. Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez have been outstanding — Tom Koehler has teased us with glimmers of masterful pitching, but largely is nothing more than a number five on almost any staff.
The aforementioned Andrew Heaney and Anthony DeSclafani have had their first cups of coffee in the big leagues and definitely show great promise. But for a team that has a chance at competing right now, at least one upgrade to the rotation is an absolute must. Just about any deal the Marlins make for a significant upgrade would probably have to include Heaney — the top left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball — but crazier things have happened. And if the Marlins are serious about winning now, them striking a couple big deals wouldn’t be out of the question.
Here are a few arms that could fill the short-term void the Marlins so desperately miss with Jose Fernandez on the shelf:
1. Jason Hammel
The Chicago Cubs are going nowhere in the immediate future and have been a popular name when talking about potential sellers at the deadline. Their ace Jeff Samardzija is the most common name thrown around, but the likelihood of the Marlins acquiring him is pretty much nonexistant. The Cubs have actually been rumored to be negotiating with Samardzija in recent weeks so there’s a chance he remains with the team in the future.
Hammel, however, is another starter the team could be looking to deal in July, and the Marlins might have the firepower to get a deal done. Hammel would profile as a number two or three in Miami’s rotation and would take the pressure of Miami’s young prospects if they were to stay in contention this year. Hammel is having a career year with a 7-5 record and 2.98 ERA and is owed $6 million in 2014, the last year of his contract. It would likely take a pretty big haul to gain Hammel’s services — the Cubs would probably want Heaney, at least.
Our friend Ehsan Kassim at Fansided’s Marlin Maniac brought up McCarthy’s name in a piece last week. I feel like this would be a very ‘Marlins’ type of deal. They did, after all, sign veteran Randy Wolf earlier this season to “eat innings,” but that didn’t exactly work out as planned. Still though, McCarthy doesn’t have a sexy ERA (and don’t even look at his 1-10 win-loss record) but he owns an 87-18 K/BB ratio and could be a bargain acquisition for the Marlins.
A deal for a guy like McCarthy seems most realistic to me for the Marlins. They are not keen on parting with their best prospects, despite their open statements that they are willing to spend to upgrade the team.
3. David Price
Sure, pretty much every team that needs pitching has been linked to David Price at some capacity. Price would far-and-away be the biggest stretch for the Marlins, and if somehow the team miraculously struck a deal for him, would likely be a one-or-two-year rental. But the Marlins do have the minor league pitching depth that the Rays always covet. Heaney, DeSclafani, Adam Conley and Justin Nicolino are all outstanding prospects that could be included in a package for Price. But this is a deal the Marlins would probably only think about if they catch fire over the next few weeks and decided to go all-in for a 2014 playoff push.
Middle Infielder
Until both recently landed on the DL the Marlins had been trotting out Adeiny Hechavarria and Rafael Furcal at shortstop and second base. They have posted respective .272/.299/.332 and .171/.216/.229 batting lines. Yeah, that’s bad. The Marlins likely have their shortstop of the future in the pleasantly surprising Derek Dietrich, but could certainly use an immediate upgrade at one of the middle infield spots.
1. Ben Zobrist
The Marlins struck a deal with the Rays last year to acquire a solid middle infield prospect in Dietrich, so why not come full circle and pick up a player like Zobrist? He is in the last year of a very affordable five-year, $23 million contract but has a player option for next year. And with the Rays firmly in the AL East basement and on the verge of throwing in the towel at any time, they could net a solid haul for their career .785 OPS-ing utility infielder/outfielder.
As I mentioned earlier, the Rays love pitching depth and the Marlins have plenty to offer. Add in perhaps a middle infield prospect to compensate — Miami has a promising kid in Avery Romero in low-A ball — and this is a deal that I don’t think would be unheard-of for a contending Marlins team.
2. Rickie Weeks
Weeks has been a bummer over the past couple years for the Milwaukee Brewers, and has opened the door for Scooter Gennett to surface as the full-time second baseman. The Marlins have hit for surprising power this year at Marlins Park, which was considered one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball, and Weeks could provide even more pop in the middle of a lineup which already includes Garrett Jones, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and of course, Giancarlo Stanton.
3. Anyone but Adeiny Hechavarria
I’m sorry, but the Marlins need to accept that their shortstop is a complete bust. In 2013, he was literally the worst hitter in MLB, slashing .227/.267/.298 in 578 (!!) plate appearances. That was good for a -1.6 WAR according to Baseball Reference. While he has improved so far in 2014 (which was not hard to do), he is still posting just a .272/.299/.332 line. He just doesn’t get on base, almost never walks and has no power whatsoever to justify a full-time starting job. The Marlins front office is still enamored with his occasional flashy defensive play, but the Marlins are going nowhere with Hechavarria in the lineup and unfortunately have no viable predecessor waiting in the minors.
Relief Pitching
Bullpen arms are a dime-a-dozen, so I’m not going to narrow this down to just a few select names. Every team can always use extra relief arms, and the Marlins are notable because of the patchwork bullpen they have assembled. In the last month the Marlins have signed Kevin Gregg, traded for Bryan Morris and shifted Jacob Turner from the rotation to long relief. It seems like on a given night, one area of the Marlins pitching staff will falter; when the starters go deep into games, the pen has been inclined to cough up leads. Should the Fish find themselves near or above .500 in late July, a bullpen arm or two would benefit them.
I would personally target a setup guy to bridge the gap before their fantastic closer Steve Cishek comes in to close the door.