Joba Chamberlain pitched the Yankees to the playoffs as Late Season Call-Up in 2007, with an 0.38 ERA down the stretch Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports
David Price and Matt Moore playing shut down reliever for two different Rays playoff clubs, Shelby Miller posting a 1.32 ERA for the Wild card winning 2012 Cardinals, Xander Bogaerts salvaging third base for the World Champion Red Sox: Recent history is rife with September call-ups who cemented their place in the big leagues by solidifying their impact on the pennant race.
Entering play Thursday, 17 different teams are currently in possession of or within 5.5 games of a playoff spot, and with rosters expanding in just four days, a sea of minor league players, both prospects and journeyman, will flood the majors and could send post-season odds spinning.
Here are the five players most likely to earn a big league promotion September 1st and change the pennant race.
Mar 10, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder
Steven Moya(30) hits a 2 run double against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. The Tigers defeated the Cardinals 17-5. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
1. Steven Moya
You’d think a lineup centered around Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, and Torii Hunter would have no shortage of power, but since the All-Star Break, Detroit ranks just 22nd in baseball with 26 home runs and 16th with a .383 slugging percentage. They haven’t been lacking for offense – the Tigers scored the second most runs in the majors over that span – but that doesn’t mean they can’t still use a power boost.
Steven Moya could provide it. The 23 year old outfielder spent most of his first five professional seasons on the disabled list, but this season, his immense power has been on full display. 6’6 and 230 pounds, he leads the Tigers organization with 34 home runs this season, all of which have been hit for Double-A Erie, and has slugged .554 this season, tops in the Eastern League. On the other side of the ball, Moya’s strong arm has been an asset in right field this year, as he’s collected 8 assists this year.
He won’t supplant veteran Torii Hunter in right, or the breakout J.D. Martinez in left, but he could still carve out time as a late-inning power threat off the bench.
For the Tigers, who currently sit a game and a half out of AL Central and a half game out of the second wild card spot , one late inning home run in a tight ball game could be the difference between a ticket to their fourth straight post-season and a ticket home.
A pinch-hit role may indeed prove ideal for the inexperienced Moya, who’s flaws could make him easy pickings for major league pitching if he is overexposed. His swing is long – 154 strikeouts this season – his plate appearances short – just 20 walks – and he has difficulty to recognizing breaking pitches.
Detroit will have to add him to the 40 man roster this November anyway, or leave him exposed in the Rule V draft. So they might as well see what if he can help them in a cup of coffee this September.
Cabrera’s power has dropped off this year, as has Kinsler’s, but Moya could make Comerica Park look small again.
Jul 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher
Marco Gonzales(56) throws to a Miami Marlins batter during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Marlins defeated the Cardinals 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
2. Marco Gonzales
A soft tossing left hander in college, Marco Gonzales fell to the 19th pick of last year’s draft because he could rarely surpass the 91 MPH mark on his fastball. But it’d be hard to find a 2013 selection who has outperformed the Gonzaga University standout this season.
Gonzales has made 21 starts across three levels, pitching to a 2.43 ERA and a 4.33 SO:BB ratio over 122 innings. He earned a major league call up in June, short lived as it was, and since his return to the minors, he is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.8 BB/9 in eight Triple-A starts.
Entering the 2014 season, the Cardinals were set with more starting pitchers than they could actually fit in the rotation. Gonzales was only a thought for the 2015 season. Injuries on the part of Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia, as well as Shelby Miller’s struggles, however, have turned St. Louis’s rotation from their greatest asset into the greatest drag on their playoff run.
Since the All Star Break, St. Louis has the worst staff ERA (4.34) in the National League and now sit a game and a half back of the Brewers in the central, though they hold a shaky one game on the Giants for the first NL wild card spot. Veteran right-hander Justin Masterson, acquired from the Indians at the trade deadline, has a 7.32 ERA in five starts for the Cards.
Masterson’s almost complete ineffectiveness has led St. Louis Brass to consider revoking his rotation spot. Such an even could create an opening for Gonzalez, who threw his six shutout frames in his most recent outing for Memphis.
Gonzalez did look dreadful in his brief major league time this season, going 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and walking more batters (11, 7.1 BB/9) than he stuck out (10, 6.1 K/9). Since college, however, he has been a finesse starter who has relied heavily on exceptional command of all his pitches. His sterling 2.0 BB/9 in the minors this season is an exact replica of the walk rate he posted through his college career. Meanwhile, his changeup is one of the best in professional baseball and adds a few miles per hour of perceived velocity to his pedestrian fastball.
Those things considered, Gonzalez should be much improved in a second major league stint, and is certainly unlikely to be worse than Masterson. At the very least, the Cardinals could use him in long relief. Among all NL teams, Only the Reds and Rockies sport worse second half bullpen ERAs than St. Louis.
Mar 2, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder
Joc Pederson(65) runs the bases against the San Diego Padres in the second inning at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
3. Joc Pederson
Matt Kemp‘s late season resurgence has shored up what, with the exclusion of MVP candidate Yasiel Puig, was quite recently a questionable Dodger’s outfield. Still, left-fielder Carl Crawford, with his .308 on base percentage and .676 OPS, is a 20 million dollar hole in middle of an otherwise strong lineup, while 4th outfielder Andre Ethieris providing sub-replacement level value (-0.6 bWAR) for all-star level pay.
There is little the Dodgers can do to assuage the salary commitments, but Triple-A outfielder Joc Pederson could remedy the production problem. ranked by Baseball America as the #17 prospect in baseball, Pederson has had a huge year for Triple-A Albuqurque, pacing the Pacific Coast League in home runs (33), walks (96), OPS (1.026), and becoming the first player in the circuit’s history to have a 30-30 season.
Expectations should be tempered with the understanding that Albuqurque is the best hitter’s ballpark in what is arguably the best hitting league in professional baseball. But there’s a reason no one else on his team, or in the entire PCL for that matter, matched Pederson’s metrics
The Dodgers, who currently hold a 5 game lead on the Giants in the NL West, announced earlier in the month that Pederson would be called up when rosters expand. Manager Don Mattingly quelled expectations Sunday, though, telling reporters that the 22 year old outfielder would only receive a handful of at bats in September.
That could change if Pederson proves he can handle major league pitching from the get-go. And Even if he doesn’t receive a wealth of plate appearances, he could still provide value a late-inning defensive upgrade. According to Fangraphs, Los Angeles’s outfield defense has cost them 24.8 runs this season, making it the NL’s worst. Pederson, though, has above average range and arm in center, and could be a plus defender if placed in the corner.
Jul 14, 2013; Flushing , NY, USA; USA pitcher
A.J. Colethrows a pitch during the 2013 All Star Futures Game at Citi Field. USA defeated World 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
4. A.J. Cole
7.5 Games up on the Braves in the NL East, the Washington Nationals hold the largest lead of any first place team, but they’re not out of the woods yet. Just ask the 2011 Braves and Red Sox.
The starting pitching has been elite and the offense has been elite in the month of August, as they’ve posted the best record (17-8) in the NL, but the bullpen has “only” been very good. Their relievers rank tenth in the majors in ERA this month and 18th in strikeout rate. A.J. Cole, though, could put them safely in the upper strata in both departments.
The 6’5, 200 pound right-hander is undefeated in 11 Triple-A starts this year and including his time at Double-A Harrisburg, owns a 3.16 ERA, a 2.1 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.5 across 134.2 innings.
But never-mind the stats, take note of the fastball, which grades out as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, per MLB.com. His four-seamer sits in the mid-90s when Cole starts and should routinely touch 97 and 98 out of the bullpen, while he also has a two-seamer with heavy sink. Collectively, MLB.com grades them out at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His secondary offerings aren’t quite major league ready, but out of the bullpen, he should be able to thrive with those fastballs and his change-up.
A series of hard throwing pitching prospects have dominated the playoff race as September call ups in recent years including Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Trevor Rosenthal. A.J. Cole could do the same for Washington in 2014.
5. Kris Bryant
Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant against the West during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Kris Bryant!? What? The Cubs are 14 games under .500, 13.5 out of the the NL Central lead. Javier Baez has a better chance of breaking Joe Sewell‘s 89 year old record for fewest strikeouts in a season than Chicago has of making the post-season.
But this isn’t about the Cubs, its about who they play. The NL Central is the tightest race in baseball, with the Cardinals just a game and a half out of the Brewers entering play Thursday, and the Pirates just two and a half games behind them. Down the stretch, Chicago will play six of 25 games against Milwaukee, six against Pittsburgh, and three against St. Louis. Four other contests will come against the Dodgers and three against Blue Jays, who are 5.5 games out of the second AL Wild Card Spot.
Chicago may not have a chance to play in the playoffs, but they’ll get a chance to play spoiler, and if called up, Kris Bryant could have a significant impact on how many games they win in September.
Bryant’s numbers between Double and Triple-A this season are unapologetically Ruthian: 43 Home Runs, .329/.440/.673 batting line, 1.123 OPS, 84 walks, and 109 RBIs. Among hitters playing in the top two levels of the affiliated minor league baseball, Bryant’s home runs are the most since Ryan Howard hit 46 in 2004, his OPS is the highest since Nelson Cruz‘s 1.23 in 2008, and his ballpark-adjusted wRC+ of 197 is the best since Kevin Kouzmanoff‘s 205 in 2006.
Bryant, the second overall pick in last year’s draft and the second best prospect in baseball, does have propensity to swing and miss – 154 strikeouts, 27% strikeout rate – but in today’s game, who doesn’t? He has still managed to draw 84 walks for a rate of 14%, and hit .329, a testament to an advanced approach at the plate that will carry over at the major league level.
He could serve as an immediate upgrade over Luis Valbuena at third, who, for all his recent power, has hit just .222 with a .289 on base percentage since the All Star Break. A two through five combo of Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler Kris Bryant would offer more home run ability than any other middle of the other in baseball.
The Murder’s Row of the Modern Midwest is not an unrealistic dreams for Cubs fans going forward, but its unlikely to come to fruition in 2014. Despite Bryant’s bevy of unassailable statistics, Cubs President Theo Epstein has given no indication the team will promote the top third base prospect this season.
“Nothing’s changed,” Epstein told Chicago Now’s John Jackson on August 12th “I still don’t foresee a scenario where Kris will get called up this year. It’s his first full professional season. It would really take extraordinary circumstances to call up anyone in his first professional season.”
That has more to do with contractual logistics and service time than with Bryant’s ability. Bryant is not on the team’s 40-man roster, nor will he be eligible for the Rule-V draft this offseason, and Chicago can keep their young slugger from free agency for an extra season simply by keeping him in the minors until the end of next April,
If the Cubs do decide to adhere to a merit system and promote Bryant come September 1 – Epstein did not fully rule it out – his first handful of home runs could come at the worst time for a handful of playoff hopefuls.