Norichika Aoki is showing up this September

Norichika Aoki has been extremely disappointing in his first season with the Kansas City Royals…. well, at least that was the case for the first five months of 2014. But then September happened, and as a result, Aoki has had his best season to date. In fact, with just one game to go before the season ends, his 2.6 fWAR is the best of his career by .3.

Now, a lot of this can be credited to improve defense, as his 103 wRC+ ties his career-worst mark last season. With that said, we are dealing with only three seasons to judge because, well, he’s only been in the league for three years. Therefore, we can’t say, “oh, this is an anomaly,” and, in actuality, Aoki can be described as a slightly above-average hitter; nothing more, nothing less.

However, had it not been for Aoki’s incredible .375/.472/.500 slash line, in September, it would have been much worse. The left-handed hitter actually has picked up 1.1 fWAR in this month alone; only 0.5 less than his 1.6 fWAR in 2013.

Truthfully, this September surge of his couldn’t have come at a better time. Aoki’s team, the Kansas City Royals, have just secured a spot in the postseason. And given how close the Seattle Mariners (85-73) and Oakland Athletics (87-73) are to the Royals (88-72), his play this month may just have been the difference-maker between Kansas City playing October baseball for the first time since 1985 or not.

Despite his timely-play, however, Aoki’s success seems to be, in large part, due to good fortunate. His ridiculously unsustainable .411 BABIP this month has been produced while his ground ball rate, at 60.6%, is his highest since June and his fly ball rate, at 15.5%, is at its lowest for any single-month besides the month of June. This matters because Fangraphs calculates line drives produce 1.26 runs per out, whereas fly balls produce 0.13 runs per out and ground balls 0.05 runs per out. For those wondering, Aoki’s line drive rate is only his third-highest in a single-month this year. 

So, yes, his play this month is most likely luck-driven, but still, his value to the Royals has mostly come the month of September. But if I had a guess, I’d say the Royals don’t mind that whatsoever.