Breaking down the American League Division Series

Oct 1, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; General view of 2014 Postseason logo on the field during workouts the day before game one of the 2014 ALDS at Oriole Park at Camden. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

This postseason, baseball will be lucky enough to see four divisional series that could go either way. No team is without weakness this postseason, so match-ups could play a huge role this October.

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The Angels will try to bash their way past the running Royals, the Orioles will try to take one of the game’s best starting rotations deep, while the Tigers will have to deal with one of the best bullpens in the game in American League Division Series matchups.

Every aspect of the game will play a role, so here’s a look at who has the advantage for each of phase of the game.

September 20, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher

(36) pitches the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A.Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Royals vs Angels

The Angels recorded the best record in baseball for the first time since 2008, when they won 100 games. They fell short in 2008, losing to the Wild Card-winning Boston Red Sox, but they have just three players remaining on their roster that appeared in that abbreviated playoff run – Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Jered Weaver.

The Royals have no holdovers from their last playoff series, because it came 29 years ago in the 1985 World Series. In fact, the Royals have 12 players who weren’t even alive when their team last made the postseason.

September 20, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels first baseman

(5) celebrates with second baseman

(47) and center fielder

(27) after hitting a two run home run in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A.Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching

Neither of these teams have built their teams around the old adage that starting pitching wins championships, but they both have starting rotations that have performed well this season.

The Angels were 13th in baseball while the Royals were 11th in starters’ ERA, but the Angels will be without one of their key guys, as they have been for a few months now. Garrett Richards suffered a serious knee injury in Boston earlier this year, and will not return until next season. Therefore, Jered Weaver will be the ace of this staff.

The match-ups for the first three games have been set, and are as follows:

1. Jason Vargas LHP (11-10, 3.71 ERA) vs Weaver RHP (18-9, 3.59 ERA)
2. Yordano Ventura  RHP (14-10, 3.20 ERA) vs Matt Shoemaker RHP (16-4, 3.04 ERA)
3. C.J. Wilson LHP (13-10, 4.51 ERA) vs James Shields RHP (14-8, 3.21 ERA)

Weaver’s experience and Shoemaker’s numbers give the Angels the edge in the first two games, but with these teams, the bullpens reign supreme. The Royals have some of the best late-inning relievers in the postseason, with three guys with ERAs under 2.00 (Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland). The Angels will counter with three bullpen guys with great numbers of their own. Huston Street (1.37 ERA) Joe Smith (1.81 ERA) and Kevin Jepsen (2.61 ERA) will all play key roles.

When picking who has the edge in pitching, I would go with the Angels. They will have their ace available on regular rest for two games this series, and I think that will make the difference.

Offense

If you look at the numbers, there’s a clear winner here, but if you watched the AL Wild Card game, you will see that there’s more than just batting average and RBIs when it comes to the Royals.

With that being said, the Royals are still at a serious disadvantage. The Angels were the highest-scoring offense in all of baseball with 773 runs, while the Royals were the lowest scoring team of all the American League playoff teams.

One thing the Royals bring to the field is speed, and lots of it. They swiped seven bags in the American League Wild Card game, but that was against Oakland. The A’s allowed the fourth highest stolen base against percentage (.781) during the regular season,  but the Angels are a bit better equipped to catch the Kansas City thieves. They allowed a SB percentage of .731, marginally better than the A’s, but they allowed six more total stolen bases on the season.

Even though the Royals might be going for some stolen base records, the Angels still have the advantage. With world-class hitters like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, complementary guys like Kole Calhoun and Collin Cowgill and seasoned playoff performers like David Freese, the Angels should have the superior scoring attack.

Sep 24, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder

(4) makes a diving catch on a ball hit by Cleveland Indians shortstop

(not pictured) in the seventh inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Defense

Just as the Angels lineup gives them an advantage, the Royals outfield defense gives them an advantage. The Royals have three of the top ten outfielders in UZR among American League outfielders, while the Angels have just one guy, Cole Calhoun, in the top 15.

With the difference in team speed between the two, the Angels will have almost no chance of matching the Royals defensively. The Royals had 110 more outside of zone defensive (OOZ) plays than the Angels did this season. The Royals 541 OOZ plays were good for fourth in the AL while the Angels were second worst in the AL.

The Royals get an advantage here.

X-Factor Player

The X-Factor for each of these teams will be building on the strengths of these team.

For the Angels, Josh Hamilton will be the one to make the difference. Hamilton is coming off another injury-plagued season, but with his natural power, he could make the lineup look very long. He has six career playoff home runs, but more importantly, 34 career playoff games. His playoff experience could help Mike Trout and Cole Calhoun in the Angels outfield.

For the Royals, their x-factor will be a guy who played in the College World Series earlier this year. Brandon Finnegan pitched for the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2014 CWS, throwing eight innings in his only start of the series. Now, he is a member of one of the best bullpens in the MLB playoffs. In the AL Wild Card game, he tossed 2 1/3 innings allowing just one run and striking out three. If Finnegan can hold down the sixth inning for the Royals, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

The edge here will be decided on the field.

Verdict: LAA in 4

I think the Angels’ offense will be just too much for the Royals to handle. The Royals will steal a game on the basepaths, but the Angels will mash their way to the round one victory.

Sep 12, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher

(14) pitches in the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Tigers vs Orioles

The Orioles were slated to finish fourth in their own division while the Tigers were many people’s pick to win the World Series before the regular season got started, but that’s why they play the games. The Orioles didn’t quite take off this season. Nelson Cruz was white-hot early on this season. The Tigers, however, started out as hot as anyone. At the trade deadline, one of these teams added one of the top available starters, but it wasn’t the Orioles. Again, when the Tigers added David Price, many people were ordering their World Series tickets in Detroit.

But even with the Price trade, the Orioles were the one to run away with their division. Both teams bring similar styles to the field, but with very different rosters.

Aug 25, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman

(6) bats in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Rays 9-1. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Fielding

There’s no match here. The Orioles lead the American League in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) while the Tigers were third-worst in the AL. The Orioles have nine players with five or more DRS, while the Tigers have just two. The Orioles have defensive depth all over the field while the Tigers have defensive liabilities all over the field.

The Orioles have an obvious advantage here.

X-Factor

The Orioles will rely heavily on the long ball in this series, and they will need it from one of the players they didn’t expect to hit for power this regular season. Steve Pearce has the ability to play multiple positions, but the Orioles will need his pop to make this lineup excel.

As for the Tigers, they will need a strong showing from their bullpen. In order to get this, they will need some good innings from one of their most experienced bullpen guys. Joba Chamberlin was brought in to add depth to this Tigers bullpen. A 3.57 ERA does not show how effective he has been this year. He will need to pitch well in the playoffs, like he has in the past, in order to get the ball to Joe Nathan at the end of games.

Verdict: Orioles in 5

This Orioles team looks like the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. Buck Sholwalter will be masterful in making late inning moves and the Orioles will send the Tigers home early.